The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond

A large literature suggests that standard exchange rate models cannot outperform a random walk forecast and that the forward rate is not an optimal predictor of the spot rate. However, there is evidence that the term structure of forward premia contains valuable information for forecasting future spot exchange rates and that exchange rate dynamics display nonlinearities. This paper proposes a term-structure forecasting model of exchange rates based on a regime-switching vector equilibrium correction model which is novel in this context. Our model significantly outperforms both a random walk and, to a lesser extent, a linear term-structure vector equilibrium correction model for four major dollar rates across a range of horizons.     

Ethical Ideologies and Older Consumer Perceptions of Unethical Sales Tactics

Demographic differences among consumer groups have become increasingly important to the development of marketing strategies. Marketers depend heavily on the sales force to implement strategies at the consumer level and, not surprisingly, different groups may view the salesperson’s role differently. Unfortunately, unethical sales practices targeted at various consumer groups, and especially at seniors, have been utilized as well. The purpose of this study is to provide initial empirical evidence of the ethical ideological make-up of four age segments outlined by Strauss and Howe (1991, Generations: The History of America’s Future 1584–2069, Morrow, New York) and to examine the propensity for these groups (seniors, in particular) to respond differentially to potentially unethical sales tactics. Data were collected from 179 respondents representing the four generational age groups. MANOVA revealed that the seniors in this study were distinct with respect to ethical ideology and less accepting of unethical sales tactics. Managerial implications are discussed for sales organizations to maximize their effectiveness across consumer groups. Rosemary P. Ramsey (Ph.D., University of Cineinnati) is Professor of Marketing in the Raj Soin College of Business at Wright State University, Dayton, OH, USA. Rosemary spent several years as a marketing and sales practitioner in the private sector, primarily for NCR Corporation. She is interested in relationship development as it pertains to buyer-seller interactions, salespersons with their sales managers, and team dynamics. She has been on the faculty at University of Kentucky and University of South Florida. She was in administration at Eastern Kentucky University, Cleveland State University, and Wright State University. She is published in the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Retailing, Journal of Business Research, Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, among others. She was recently honored by Who’s Who among America’s Teachers and Who’s Who in Executives and Professionals. Greg W. Marshall (Ph.D., Oklahoma State University) is Professor of Marketing and Strategy in the Roy E. Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins College, Winter Park, FL, USA, Greg’s research centers on the areas of sales force selection, performance, and evaluation; adoption and successful use of technology by salespeople; sales force diversity; decision making by marketing managers; and intraorganizational relationships. He is Editor of the Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice. His industry experience includes thirteen years in selling and sales management, product management, and retailing with companies such as Warner Lambert, Mennen, and Target Corporation. He is a frequent consultant and trainer in the area of strategic marketing. Greg serves on the editorial review boards of the Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Business Research, and Industrial Marketing Management.He is co-author of the books, Sales Force Management 9e and Relationship Selling and Sales Management 2e, both published by McCraw-Hill, and Marketing: Real People, Real Choices 5e, published by Prentice Hall. Mark W Johnston (Ph.D., Texas A&M University) is the Alan and Sandra Gerry Professor of Marketing and Ethics at the Roy E. Crummer Graduate School of Business at Rollins College, Winter Park, FL, USA. Mark has conducted a number of seminars around the world on a variety of topics including ethical issues in marketing, sales force motivation, managing turnover in the organization, sales training issues, and improving overall sales performance. He has served as a marketing consultant to a number of organizations around the country. A partial list of his research includes publications in theJournal of Marketing Research, Jotunal of Applied Psychology, Journal of Business Research, and Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management. He is co-author of the books Sales Force Marnagement 9e and Relationship Selling and Sales Management 2e, both published by McGraw-Hill. Dawn R, Deeter-Schmelz (Ph.D., University of South Florida) is Chair and O’Bleness Professor of Marketing at Ohio University, Athens, OH, USA. Her research interests include customer service teams, sales management and buyer-seller relationship issues, business-to-business e-commerce, and scale development. She has published in Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, Journal of Marketing Theory and Practice, Industrial Marketing Management, Journal of Personal Selling & Sales Management, Journal of Marketing Education, and Journal of Business Logistics, among others. In a marketplace where the consumer is King ... understanding the fundamental needs, values, icons and historical experiences of the various generations is more critical than ever. Generational mindsets and feelings are major factors in determining ...an effective marketing strategy. —Fishman (2004), p. 4     

Survey of recent developments

Sri Mulyani's resignation as finance minister in May disturbed markets and aroused concern about the government's commitment to reform. This concern was partly alleviated by the appointment of two well-respected individuals as finance minister and deputy finance minister. Further progress with reform will depend heavily on this new team and other key officials. Strong presidential support will also be needed to resist attempts by parliament to interfere excessively with the finance ministry's work.

The economy continued its steady recovery from the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC), but the recovery could still be jeopardised if sovereign debt concerns in Europe persist and block the rebound in global trade and commodity prices. Inflation continues to accelerate, suggesting little room for complacency on monetary policy. Fiscal policy, on the other hand, remains conservative. The higher deficit in the revised 2010 budget is not excessive, and is unlikely to be realised in any case. The real budget challenge is to spend budgeted amounts fully and well. The new five-year plan is also conservative and does little to clarify spending priorities, including for the president's ‘connectivity’ agenda.

Despite the GFC, poverty continued to decline, thanks largely to the uninterrupted expansion of GDP and to cash transfers to the poor. Unemployment also continued to fall, although particular groups suffered slight increases in unemployment (young workers 15–25 years old) and somewhat larger reductions in working hours (urban, non-poor, and male-headed households). Nevertheless the large and sustained deceleration of manufacturing growth and the closely related dramatic shift of employment from the formal to the informal sector provide cause for concern. Distortionary labour market policies may help to explain both.

A new mining law significantly alters the legal environment for firms in this industry, and also introduces long discredited policies intended to ‘increase value added’ by requiring the domestic processing of minerals. A new law on local government taxes attempts to reduce uncertainty for citizens and investors, but the nature of overall spending by local governments is of much greater importance for the investment climate. The central government has recently been seeking to restore the role of the ‘missing intermediate’ level of government and to boost the centre's indirect control over local governments through provincial governments and governors. This strategy is unlikely to succeed, but it highlights the conflicting requirements for provincial governors to act as agents of the central government while also being accountable to their provincial electorates.     

Gender Pay Equity and Comparable Worth in Australia: A Reassessment

The Australian labour market is characterised by a persistent earnings differential between men and women. This article examines the contribution made by gender-based occupational segmentation to that gap using data from the 1993 Survey of Training and Education. It is estimated that occupational segmentation is responsible for between 3.9 and 4.9 percentage points of the earnings differential when measured across all employees. The comparable range after excluding managerial employees, however, is only 2.1 to 3.6 percentage points. Finally, the importance of segmentation for the gender earnings gap is found to be directly correlated with age, suggesting the intriguing possibility that the occupation-based inequity in pay will work itself out over time. That said, other explanations for this age effect also exist.     

Assessing the economic costs of high school noncompletion

Disparities in educational attainment exist across states. There are costs, both to the individual and society, associated with low levels of educational attainment. This research estimates the costs of high school noncompletion in terms of income loss for each state. The results suggest that: 1) there are substantial economic costs associated with high school noncompletion ($727 billion in lost income nationally); 2) costs vary widely across states; and 3) in general, states with relatively low levels of per capita expenditures on education incur the greatest losses in income from high school noncompletion.     

Prominence and consumer search

This article examines the implications of “prominence” in search markets. We model prominence by supposing that the prominent firm will be sampled first by all consumers. If there are no systematic quality differences among firms, we find that the prominent firm will charge a lower price than its less prominent rivals. Making a firm prominent will typically lead to higher industry profit but lower consumer surplus and welfare. The model is extended by introducing heterogeneous product qualities, in which case the firm with the highest‐quality product has the greatest incentive to become prominent, and making it prominent will boost industry profit, consumer surplus, and welfare.     

The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More by Chris Anderson

Books reviewed in this issue:

• ▪

  The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More

       

Affect and Retail Shopping Behavior: Understanding the Role of Mood Regulation and Regulatory Focus

Two studies investigate the relationship between promotion and prevention focus, mood regulation, and retail marketplace evaluations and behaviors. Study 1, a laboratory experiment, finds that individuals high in promotion focus regulate their moods more than individuals low in promotion focus. Study 2, a field study, investigates the relationships between retail outcomes, regulatory focus, and the three core mood regulation constructs of mood monitoring, mood clarity, and mood repair. Results suggest that mood regulation is closely related to promotion and prevention focus, having both a direct influence on retail outcomes as well as mediating the influence of regulatory focus. Implications for theory and practice, limitations, and directions for future research are discussed.     

Understanding ERP system implementation in a hospital by analysing stakeholders

Implementing enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems requires significant organisational, as well as technical, changes. These will affect stakeholders with varying perspectives and interests in the system. This is particularly the case in health care, as a feature of this sector is that responsibility of services is shared between many autonomous units. In these and similar settings, it is essential to analyse stakeholders and to understand their expectations and attitudes towards the system. Such an understanding will help implementers to address stakeholder interests and to encourage acceptance. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to develop a theoretically based model to analyse how stakeholder attitudes and behaviours in a hospital setting affect the outcome of ERP implementation. This model is applied in an empirical study of a project to introduce an ERP system in medium‐sized hospital in The Netherlands. The study shows how the ERP implementation impacts the interests of stakeholders such as physicians and administrators, which caused tensions. The paper examines the reasons of these tensions. In doing so, it contributes to our understanding of ERP implementation in health care and any other similar sectors from a stakeholder perspective, and it may help implementers to manage this more effectively.     

Predicting stock splits with the help of firm-specific experiences

Evidence exists of abnormal stock returns at and following stock split announcements. The successful prediction of splits may therefore enhance investor returns, yet few studies attempt such forecasts. We note a neglected aspect of prior prediction studies—that companies enjoying a favorable stock market response to a previous split are more likely to split again. Firms in industries with a record of favorable post-split performance may also be more likely to split. We find that inclusion of these factors enhances split prediction accuracy. We also find that with these factors our split prediction model generates significant abnormal returns.