Estimating exchange rate dynamics with diffusion processes: an application to Greek EMU data

Recently various exchange rate models capturing the dynamics during the transition from an exchange rate arrangement of floating rates into a currency union have been derived. Technically, these stochastic equilibrium models are diffusion processes which have to be estimated by discretely sampled observations. Using daily exchange rate data prior to the Greek EMU-entrance on 1 January 2001, we develop a rigorous estimation procedure. Our estimates point to an increasing interventionist economic policy in the run-up to the Greek EMU entrance. A comparison of this econometric indication with policy information provided (ex-post) by the Bank of Greece (BoG) in its Annual Report 2000 reveals that the BoG indeed pursued such an active policy stance (so-called institutional frontloading strategies).      

When simplicity outsmarts complexity

Although there has been a marked increase in the academic study of the “posthuman” it has had a tendency to be polarized: on the one hand, certain elements of academia are mirroring popular culture in a prophetic examination of social nihilism and unfettered technological advance, culminating in the marriage of human and computer. On the other hand, some academics treat the topic as fanciful, part of a general degradation of modern culture, which in turn, leads them to ignore and sometimes even ridicule research done in the name of the posthuman.Unfortunately - and possibly as a result of this ridicule - those who are willing to write from the former, seem to have an overarching desire to do it from a scientific realist standpoint; as if it was the only legitimate position to take. The result of this has been a number of in-depth articles on the computer dynamics necessary - and the vast scientific and technological advances needed - to achieve computational parity with human neurology. But although it follows that there would be limited desire to “upgrade” the human by plugging it into something deemed “inferior”; the scientific realist perspective has resulted in the timeframe for fundamental posthuman change being one of centuries, rather than decades.In opposing the scientific realist position I will argue - using Bostrom’s example of the human computer simulation - that from a more "sceptical" philosophical position, such a device may in fact be practically on our doorstep, rather than light-years away.     

Physician acquisition: what to avoid after the deal is complete

After a hospital acquires a physician practice, relations can become strained between the parties in any of four areas: Governance and decision making. Technology. Payment structures. Emotional factors related to the acquisition.     

Prácticas de compra predatorias en las cadenas mundiales de suministro de la industria de la confección: tensión en las relaciones laborales en la India

Desde hace tiempo se viene documentando en múltiples estudios la vulneración de los derechos de los trabajadores en las cadenas mundiales de suministro de la industria de la confección; sin embargo, se ha prestado menos atención al reciente empeoramiento de algunos déficits de trabajo decente y sus causas, que el presente artículo asocia a las prácticas de compra predatorias derivadas de las crecientes asimetrías de poder. Estas prácticas, ilustradas aquí a través de las empresas indias del sector del vestido orientadas a la exportación, ejercen presiones salariales a la baja y favorecen la proliferación de formas atípicas de empleo y la banalización de la violencia física y verbal contra los trabajadores, al tiempo que aumentan las exigencias de productividad. Para frenar esta evolución, es necesario establecer mecanismos de fijación de precios que tengan en cuenta el costo que entraña el cumplimiento del principio del trabajo decente, adoptar una reglamentación estatal adecuada y contar con la participación de los trabajadores.     

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to inference in multiple‐equation Markov‐switching models

Vector autoregressions with Markov‐switching parameters (MS‐VARs) offer substantial gains in data fit over VARs with constant parameters. However, Bayesian inference for MS‐VARs has remained challenging, impeding their uptake for empirical applications. We show that sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) estimators can accurately estimate MS‐VAR posteriors. Relative to multi‐step, model‐specific MCMC routines, SMC has the advantages of generality, parallelizability, and freedom from reliance on particular analytical relationships between prior and likelihood. We use SMC's flexibility to demonstrate that model selection among MS‐VARs can be highly sensitive to the choice of prior.     

Top-down Production Management: A Recent Trend in the Japanese Productivity-enhancement Movement

It is well known that many of the manufacturing practices advanced in Japan in the 1970s and 1980s emphasize bottom-up decision processes characterized by teams, the empowerment of multi-skilled workers on the shopfloor, demand-pull and horizontal decision mechanisms. These practices include Just-in-Time (JIT) and quality management practices such as quality circles (QC) and total quality management (TQM). While these practices continue to be effective under appropriate circumstances, the drastic appreciation of the Japanese yen that has taken place since the mid-1980s and the prolonged recession following the burst of the bubble have forced many Japanese manufacturers to adopt new methods to improve their production efficiency. In this paper we discuss one of such methods called Total Productivity Management (TPM). Unlike JIT or TQM, implementing TPM requires a top-down approach. TPM provides direct connections between corporate-wide objectives such as the overall cost reduction and shopfloor practices. It is possible that TPM has contributed significantly to Japanese manufacturers' recent success in reducing their cost of operation. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

MORGAN STANLEY ROUNDTABLE ON Capital Structure and Payout Policy

A group of distinguished finance academics and practitioners discuss a number of topical issues in corporate financial management: Is there such a thing as an optimal, or value‐maximizing, capital structure for a given company? What proportion of a firm's current earnings should be distributed to the firm's shareholders? And under what circumstances should such distributions take the form of stock repurchases rather than dividends? The consensus that emerges is that a company's financing and payout policies should be designed to support its business strategy. For growth companies, the emphasis is on preserving financial flexibility to carry out the business plan, which means heavy reliance on equity financing and limited payouts. But for companies in mature industries with few major investment opportunities, more aggressive use of debt and higher payouts can add value both by reducing taxes and controlling the corporate free cash flow problem. In such cases, both leveraged financing and cash distributions through dividends and stock buybacks signal management's commitment to its shareholders that the firm's excess cash will not be wasted on projects that produce low‐return growth that comes at the expense of profitability. As for the choice between dividends and stock repurchases, dividends provide a stronger commitment to pay out excess cash than open market repurchase programs. Stock buybacks, at least of the open market variety, preserve more flexibility for companies that want to be able to capitalize on unpredictable investment opportunities. But, as with the debt‐equity decision, there is an optimal level of financial flexibility: too little can mean lost investment opportunities, but too much can lead to overinvestment.     

Are EU budget deficits stationary?

In this paper, we test for the stationarity of European Union budget deficits over the period 1971–2006, using a panel of thirteen member countries. Our testing strategy addresses two key concerns with regard to unit root panel data testing, namely (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among the countries in the panel and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks that might have occurred at different points in time. To address these concerns, we employ an AR-based bootstrap approach that allows us to test the null hypothesis of joint stationarity with endogenously determined structural breaks. In contrast to the existing literature, we find that the EU countries considered are characterised by fiscal stationarity over the full sample period irrespective of us allowing for structural breaks. This conclusion also holds when analysing sub-periods based on before and after the Maastricht treaty.     

Voting on meritocracy

This paper considers a setting where a resource such as education budget is to be distributed among agents. The latter differ in their ability to make use of the resource, and the issue is that of determining the allocation rule whereby the individual shares of the resource (may) depend on their relative efforts of obtaining it. The paper's focus is on endogenous determination, through voting, of the degree of meritocracy in the resource allocation system, which determines the marginal productivity of one's effort. It is found that a meritocratic system is expected to be supported by highly productive individuals and opposed by those with low productivity. When the decision making becomes less elitist and involves broader participation of population groups the support for meritocracy decreases.