The Economic Impact of AIDS Treatment: Labor Supply in Western Kenya

Using longitudinal survey data collected in collaboration with a treatment program, this paper estimates the economic impacts of antiretroviral treatment. The responses in two outcomes are studied: (1) labor supply of treated adult AIDS patients; and (2) labor supply of individuals in patients' households. Within six months after treatment initiation, there is a 20 percent increase in the likelihood of the patient participating in the labor force and a 35 percent increase in weekly hours worked. Young boys in treated patients' households work significantly less after treatment initiation, while girls and adult household members do not change their labor supply.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Von Bloggern und Beamern</Emphasis>

Zusammenfasung  Neue Medien in der Pflege — Unsere Pflegeausbildung hat die Chance, multimedial zu werden. Und wir selbst k?nnen unsere pers?nlichen Erlebnisse, unseren Frust und unsere Ideen in Internetforen austauschen oder als Blogger und Bloggerin loswerden. Zwei Pflege-Azubis schreiben über ihre Erfahrungen.     

Planning with scenarios : The banking world of 1985

Scenarios are widely used in large organisations as a planning tool. The success of this tool, however, depends on its ability to link macroviews of economic, social, and political events to the unique operating experience of a specific type of organisation. This article describes a formal linking procedure for assessing the impact of several scenarios on a large bank. The goal is to define those sets of economic, technological, and regulatory conditions which are most favourable (a “best scenario”) and those which are least favourable (a “worst scenario”).     

Fiscal strategies,foreign indebtedness,and overlapping generations

Conclusions This paper offers a unifying dynamic system approach to real government debt and real capital formation in a world economy. The sustainability of permanently maintained primary fiscal deficits is investigated in an open economy. In particular if national governments compete in the issuance of debt at an international capital market sustainable debt profiles appear only as a theoretical (i. e., not empirically valid) curiosity. Within the more realistic regime of an undercapitalized world economy a nation can only run a permanently maintained primary surplus. Starting from a PMP surplus the paper also demonstrates the viability of temporary deficits implying an increase in taxation later to stabilize the fiscal debt. By reversing the argument this shows, the right way to reduce government debt in a non-traumatic manner is to run a higher temporary surplus via higher taxation. Using this extrasurplus to buy back fiscal debt the economy may reduce taxation later while enjoying vigorous capital accumulation towards a higher capital-labour ratio. Furthermore, the paper shows that ceteris paribus a relatively high social security load and a relatively high size of a balanced budget causes external indebtedness via consumption oriented current account deficits. It is left for further research to see what happens if government borrows for public investment instead of public consumption.My research was supported by Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft. While preparing the paper 1 had access to unpublished work by M. Carlberg and T. Ihori. Discussions with M. Carlberg, H. Großmann, J. Michaelis, and H. Schmid are gratefully acknowledged. The diagrams were mastered by C. Schwarz.     

Keeping Up With the Joneses: Analyzing the Effect of Income Inequality on Consumer Borrowing

Household debt relative to disposable income increased from 60% in 1980 to 104% at the end of 2003. ‘Buying on credit’ has become so popular that an increasing number of firms generate more profit from financing than from selling their products. In this paper, we show that rising income inequality has substantially contributed to increased consumer borrowing. Income inequality affects all components of total household debt, but the impact is strongest on non-revolving debt (installment loans), which is used to finance the purchase of consumer durables. We argue and provide evidence that the income inequality effect on consumer borrowing is a result of conspicuous consumption. Rising income inequality has forced households with smaller income gains to use debt to keep up their consumption level relative to households with larger income gains.JEL Classification: D12, G29, J31, M30     

Optimal Self-Reporting Schemes with Multiple Stages and Option Values

We consider a model of optimal law enforcement where sanctions can be reduced for self-reporting individuals. We distinguish between a first self-reporting stage before the case is investigated and a second one where the criminal is detected, but not yet convicted. Since we assume that violators have private information in both stages, fine reductions for self-reporting individuals lead ceteris paribus to a higher violation frequency. Nevertheless, we show that fine reductions should be granted in both stages. We characterize the connection between the two fine reductions in the optimal policy and relate our results to self-reporting schemes observed in reality.