Regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted delta hedging

We introduce several regime‐dependent smile‐adjusted deltas and compare their efficiency with the smile‐adjusted deltas that are popular with option traders. Using years of daily option prices, out‐of‐sample hedging performance tests for options of all moneyness and maturities and daily, weekly, or fortnightly rebalancing show that even the simplest regime‐dependent smile‐adjustment consistently outperforms implied BSM delta hedging and local volatility and minimum variance smile‐adjustments. Markov‐switching deltas offer the best performance, with delta‐hedging errors often half the size of implied BSM hedging errors. During volatile markets risk reduction from regime‐dependent delta hedging is much greater than during tranquil periods.     

The effect of IMF lending on the probability of sovereign debt crises

This paper explores empirically how the adoption of IMF programs affects sovereign risk over the medium term. We find that IMF programs significantly increase the probability of subsequent sovereign defaults by approximately 1.5–2 percentage points. These results cannot be attributed to endogeneity bias as they are supported by specifications that explain sovereign defaults and program participation simultaneously. Furthermore, IMF programs turn out to be especially detrimental to fiscal solvency when the Fund distributes its resources to countries whose economic fundamentals are already weak. Our evidence is therefore consistent with the hypothesis that debtor moral hazard is most likely to occur in these circumstances. Other explanations that point to the effects of debt dilution and the possibility of IMF triggered debt runs, however, are also possible.     

Financial intermediation and the role of price discrimination in the foreign exchange market

Foreign exchange trading is performed in opaque and decentralized markets. The two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market makers have access gives rise to the possibility of price discrimination. We develop a theoretical pricing model that accounts for market-power considerations and analyze a database of the trades of a foreign exchange market maker. We find that the market maker generally exerts low bargaining power vis-á-vis customers. The dealer earns lower average spreads on trades with financial customers than commercial customers, even though the former are perceived to convey exchange-rate-relevant information.     

Home-field advantage or a matter of ambiguity aversion? Local bias among German individual investors

This paper investigates whether familiarity induced by ambiguity aversion can help explaining the local bias phenomenon among individual investors. Using geographic closeness as a proxy for investor familiarity, we find that investors pull out of (unfamiliar) remote stocks and pour into (familiar) local stocks during times of increased market uncertainty. Moreover, the magnitude of this ‘flight to familiarity’ increases in the spread of an investor's ambiguity (about expected returns) between local and remote stocks. Our results prove robust to a number of alternative explanations of local bias. Specifically, we rule out a ‘home-field advantage’, where investors are able to translate information advantages about nearby companies into excess returns on their local stockholdings. We conclude that individual investors’ local bias is induced by ambiguity aversion in the portfolio selection process rather than a trading strategy based on superior information about local companies.     

On the competition enhancing effects of exclusive dealing contracts

Antitrust scholars have argued that exclusive contracts have anticompetitive, or at best neutral effects, if no efficiencies are generated. In contrast, this paper shows that exclusive contracts can have procompetitive effects, provided buyers are imperfect downstream competitors and contract breach is feasible. In that case, an efficient entrant is not necessarily foreclosed through exclusive contracts but induces buyers to breach. Because breaching buyers have to pay expectation damages to the incumbent, the downstream profits they obtain when breaching must be large enough. Therefore, the entrant needs to set a lower wholesale price than absent exclusive contracts, leading to lower final consumer prices and higher welfare.     

The development of critical capabilities in foreign subsidiaries: disentangling the role of the subsidiary’s business network

Within business literature in general, capabilities have advanced to the prime determinant of the corporation’s economic rents. Within international business literature, it is further assumed that multinational corporations can enhance their pool of capabilities through foreign subsidiaries. Foreign subsidiaries are seen as means to assimilate new capabilities from their local, external network and integrate these capabilities into the multinational corporation. Data from more than 2000 foreign subsidiaries shows that some foreign units actually are endowed with superior capabilities which are useful for other corporate entities. It is argued that the development of critical capabilities within these subsidiaries is driven not only by internal corporate actors, but also by external actors. The analysis provides evidence that the role of different internal and external network partners for capability development varies according to the functional activity under consideration. Thus, subsidiaries benefit from various internal and external network actors in very different ways. The contribution ends with some conclusions and some avenues for future research.     

An outlier test for linear processes — II. Large contamination

In Flak/Schmid (1993) an outlier test for linear processes was introduced. The test statistic bases on a comparison of each observation with a one-step predictor. It was assumed that an upper bound for the total number of outlierss _n is known, wheren denotes the sample size. The asymptotic distribution of the test statistic was derived under the assumption thats _n/n → 0 ands _n → ∞ asn → ∞. This note deals with the asymptotic behaviour of this quantity, ifs _n/n →p ₀ ∈ (0, 1).     

The effects of EMU on euro area unemployment

The author analyzes the likely impact of EMU and the associated changes in the monetary, economic, and institutional environment on European labor markets in an open economy model. He shows that in this model, the formation of a monetary union (MU) has no effect on unemployment if the participating countries were part of a fixed exchange rate regime before entering the MU and if the monetary policy of the common central bank resembles that of the former anchor bank. In addition, he discusses various cases in which this conclusion does not hold and where one can expect an impact of EMU on structural unemployment.