The recent failure of U.S. monetary policy

Summary The very slow growth of the broad money supply has been a primary source of U.S. economic weakness in 1990 through 1992. The velocity link between M2 and the subsequent level of nominal GDP has not declined. But changes in bank reserves brought about by open market operations have had much less effect onM2 than the Fed anticipated for two reasons: (1) reserve requirements now apply to only a small fraction of totalM2; and (2) the new bank capital requirements limit some banks ability to lend. The Federal Reserve failed to appreciate the importance of these conditions and misjudged the strength of the monetary policy stimulus that it was providing.Professor of Economics, Harvard University, and President of the National Bureau of Economic Research.Sixth Tinbergen Lecture delivered on October 2, 1992, in The Hague for the Royal Netherlands Economic Association.     

A preliminary evaluation of the new RIDP and its impact on regional development in South Africa

The debate on regional political autonomy makes regional economic development a subject of central importance. Current policy is embodied in the Regional Industrial Development Programme (RIDP), as revised in May 1991. Regional industrial policy in South Africa originated in 1956 with the Border Industry Programme, whose objective was to create economically independent sovereign states, Subsequent shifts of emphasis from socio‐political objectives towards a predominantly economic orientation in the 1991 RIDP were expected to concentrate the allocation of resources to industry at locations with greater natural potential for industrial development.

An evaluation of the preliminary results of the 1991 RIDP confirms these expectations in that, as far as capital investment is concerned, a certain degree of concentration is already discernible especially in metropolitan areas and secondary cities. However, it seems there are a number of factors present in the market‐place that are still inhibiting the full realisation of the objective of concentrated industrial development at locations with a natural potential for industrial development. The existing institutional development framework, the availability of relatively cheap excess infrastructure in certain locations and the spatial application of the new RIDP are some of the factors that could possibly have influenced locational decision making during the last 20 months.

Therefore, although the new RIDP is more market orientated than its predecessor and certainly much more economically sustainable, a number of issues still need attention, and further adjustments to the programme should be made if the various regions are to be developed optimally and scarce economic resources utilised effectively.     

Health care costs in workers' compensation

Although the costs of both the medical and indemnity components of workers' compensation have increased substantially in the past several years, the costs of medical benefits grew far more dramatically.     

An appropriate development strategy for Southern Africa∗

The limited successes achieved with development in the Third World and the national states in Southern Africa have necessitated a considerable change in development thinking and practice. The conventional developmental approach, which is based on growth models, is inappropriate for the conditions in the LDCs. A new development approach, coupled with an appropriate development strategy, has culminated in the development literature.

In this article the poverty problem in Southern Africa is outlined as a general background, whereafter the new development approach and a few guidelines for an appropriate development strategy is discussed. The application of the new strategy in the circumstances of Southern Africa is highlighted.     

A new approach to household fertility behavior

A 1st step is taken in this discussion towards the explicit theoretical recognition that fertility decisions are made by pairs of individuals who conceivably have different preferences or are in different circumstances. The focus is on disagreements between spouses over desired family size. The discussion begins by identifying the costs and benefits of child services to each spouse, which involves consideration of the type of interdependency of the utility functions as well as the nature of the externality problem in the production of child service. Specific examples are included of situations in which disagreement is likely to occur. Using the National Fertility Survey of 1965, it is possible to test whether disagreements are more likely to occur in these identified cases. 2 types of fertility conflict are predicted: the wife desires fewer children than the husband and the reverse. The National Fertility Survey (NFS) data set contains 5617 interview records. A sample of 1559 women who were married once, husband present, nonmenopausal, aged 25-39 with valid answers to all questions were selected. Husband's schooling in excess of wife's increased the probability that conflict of the husband demanding fewer children type will arise and the probability was increased at higher levels of income. The demand for quality rose with income and placed additional pressure on a husband with more education to assist (via lost leisure time) in the creation of quality. The effects were highly nonlinear. Higher levels of status of the wife's (potential) job had the predicted effect of making wife demands fewer children conflict more likely, but only through intermediate levels of status. Another variable which had a significant influence on the probability of conflict was the husband's age, with higher husband's age leading to husband demanding fewer children than wife conflict.     

The theory of effective protection a critique

Summary A linear two-by-two general equilibrium model of international trade has been developed with international mobility of capital goods and capital funds. By means of this model the consequences of imposing an ad valorem tariff on imported inputs and imported consumption have been investigated. Special attention has been paid to the consequences of a differentiated tariff structure for total imports.The analysis leads to the conclusion that in the present model a unique relation between the differentiated tariff structure and the effective protective rate does not exist.In many respects this article draws heavily upon my doctoral dissertation:Heterogeen kapitaal en internationale handel, mimeographed, Tilburg, 1973