Exchange rates and order flow in the long run

Several recent papers have underlined the importance of microstructure effects in understanding exchange rate behavior by documenting stable long-run relationships between cumulated order flows and spot exchange rates. This stands in contrast to the widely-studied failure of exchange rates to conform to the long-run behavior implied by “conventional” macroeconomic models and is consistent with the prediction of micro-structure models. We re-examine the evidence for stable long-run relationships. We find that such evidence exists only for a small number of the major currencies we examine and that it is statistically fragile. We conclude that this implication of microstructure models does not fit the data as well as previous studies suggest.     

Evaluating the risk of patent infringement by means of semantic patent analysis: the case of DNA chips

In this paper, we are going to present a method for detecting the risks of patent infringement by evaluating similarities between patent documents on the basis of semantic patent analysis. This approach enables the user to visualize similarities in the contents on a semantic patent map by means of multi‐dimensional scaling. The effectiveness of the semantic patent map has already been demonstrated by Dressler (2006) with regard to patents of seal technology, in which documents are commonly kept short and the extracted contents are concise. This paper will open out to the field of biotechnology, where patents can easily comprise several hundreds of pages. The method presented here conveys an interdisciplinary approach and combines computer‐aided natural language processing with domain‐specific expertise of biochemical processes. This is illustrated by an authentic case of infringement involving two manufacturers of DNA chips. Our experiment will show how the infringement case is visualized on a patent map based on semantic patent analysis. This experiment can be compared with the search for a needle in a haystack, the two competitive patents representing significantly conflicting ‘needles.’ From an approximate number of 4,000 patents in the current US Class 435/6, a set of patents was selected that included the ‘needles’ mentioned. This paper will point out how such mutual interference can be detected by way of semantic patent analysis, and what advice may be given to R&D managers who are faced with the risk of patent infringement.     

Geometric Asian option pricing in general affine stochastic volatility models with jumps

In this paper, we present some results on Geometric Asian option valuation for affine stochastic volatility models with jumps. We shall provide a general framework into which several different valuation problems based on some average process can be cast, and we shall obtain closed form solutions for some relevant affine model classes.     

Social Learning in Beauty‐Contest Games

We study the impact of social learning on the depth of reasoning in an experimental beauty‐contest game. Naive advice and observation of others' decisions as two forms of social learning trigger faster convergence to the equilibrium. We find that subjects who receive advice outperform uninformed subjects permanently, whereas subjects who observe others' past behavior before making their decision only have a temporary advantage over uninformed subjects. A series of control‐treatments and simulations indicate that the latter result is due to subjects failing to make the most out of observing others.     

Dissipative Competition: Evidence from a Quasi‐Natural Experiment

We document that contrary to the conventional view, the costs of domestic firms in terms of selling, general and administrative expenses and cost of goods sold increase significantly following exogenous shocks that increase competition, namely material import tariff cuts affecting US manufacturing industries over the period 1974–2005. Incompatible with an agency explanation, the cost increase is more pronounced among firms with higher CEO/insider/board ownership. We further find that the cost increase is more evident among firms with smaller market share and among focused firms. Generally, our results are consistent with the notion of ‘dissipative competition’ discussed in the seminal papers by Tullock.     

EQUALITY OF OPPORTUNITY: EAST VS. WEST GERMANY

The case of German reunification has been subject to extensive research on earnings inequality and labour market integration. However, little is known about the development of equality of opportunity (EOp) in East and West Germany after 1990. Using German micro data, we empirically analyse how circumstances beyond the sphere of individual control relate to inequality in East and West Germany. Our results show that EOp is larger in East than in West Germany. However, despite increasing income inequality, EOp remained surprisingly constant.     

Estimating the gravity model when zero trade flows are frequent and economically determined

ABSTRACT

Since the 1950s, we have known that the presence of zero-valued dependent variables can seriously bias econometric estimates whether the zeros are included or excluded. Yet the widely-used gravity model is frequently estimated on samples that include large fractions of zeros. An influential paper by Santos Silva and Tenreyro – based on simulations that include no economically-determined zeros – concludes that the bias problems resulting from zeros and those resulting from heteroscedasticity and nonlinearity can be solved using the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood (PPML) model including the zero values. This paper begins by adapting the Santos Silva and Tenreyro experimental design to include economically-determined zeros to see whether this conclusion continues to hold. With this design, it finds that alternative estimators have lower bias than PPML. Changing to a Monte Carlo design that replicates the much-higher real-world frequency of predicted values near zero restores the finding of lower bias with the PPML estimator. The results highlight the need for very careful design of Monte Carlo experiments when evaluating alternative estimators of the gravity model.     

The So-Called 2015 Migration Crisis and Euroscepticism in Border Regions: Facing Re-Bordering Trends in the Danish–German Borderlands

ABSTRACT

This paper examines the role of Euroscepticism on regional cross-border cooperation between Germany and Denmark. It demonstrates that Euroscepticism, while absent from local mainstream politicians, had already caused civic unrest in the 1997 attempts to construct a return to history Euro-region Schleswig. It resulted in a re-scaling of the Euro-Region to Region and Schleswig to “Sønderjylland/Schleswig”, omitting any reference to Europe, European identity or a commitment to a closer European union in the relevant agreements. Border controls, on the agenda in 2011 and again since 2015, have demonstrated the institutional weakness of cross-border politics when faced with determined initiatives from the national center. Furthermore, the Eurosceptic Danish People’s Party had its best results in the border precincts both at the latest European and Danish national elections. Euroscepticism, even though difficult to measure on a regional level, seems to have been an ever present underneath current despite a political rhetoric of successful cooperation and cross-border reconciliation. The Danish-German case’s development might be more distinct, but nonetheless representative for European border (and cross-border) regions. While European metropolises develop into thriving cosmopolitan post-nation state societies, this is not necessary the case at Europe’s borders, where categorization and bordering remain common social practices by the large majority of national borderlanders with only a small portion of transnational borderlanders or ‘regionauts’ getting involved in border crossing social practices on a larger scale.     

The marketing of love: how attachment styles affect romantic consumption journeys

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science - The experience of romantic love is closely interlocked with consumption journeys—yet how and why consumers engage in romantic consumption is not...