Time-varying persistence in US inflation

The persistence property of inflation is an important issue not only for economists, but especially for central banks, given that the degree of inflation persistence determines the extent to which central banks can control inflation. Further, not only is it the level of inflation persistence that is important in economic analyses, but also the question of whether the persistence varies over time, for instance, across business cycle phases, is equally pertinent, since assuming constant persistence across states of the economy is sure to lead to misguided policy decisions. Against this backdrop, we extend the literature on long-memory models of inflation persistence for the US economy over the monthly period of 1920:1–2014:5, by developing an autoregressive fractionally integrated moving-average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic model with a time-varying memory coefficient which varies across expansions and recessions. In sum, we find that inflation persistence does vary across recessions and expansions, with it being significantly higher in the former than in the latter. As an aside, we also show that persistence of inflation volatility is higher during expansions than in recessions. Understandably, our results have important policy implications.     

Has Brexit affected employment in Japanese affiliates in the UK?

On 23 June 2016, a referendum was held in the United Kingdom (UK) to decide whether the country should leave or remain a member of the European Union (EU). The ‘Leave’ vote won by 52 per cent to 48 per cent of voters, leading to the EU–UK Withdrawal Agreement that came into force in 2020 and the Trade and Cooperation Agreement that came into force in 2021. Brexit is not exclusively a European matter; it affects third parties as well. In this article we examine the presence of Japanese affiliates in Europe during 2000–21 by analysing data obtained from the Toyo Keizai's Overseas Japanese Companies database. While the UK has been a major beneficiary of Japanese investments in Europe, its share of Japanese affiliates in Europe has decreased, especially during 2000–10. Brexit has had no negative impact on direct employment created by Japanese affiliates in the UK in the short term, but its impact in the long term could be exacerbated by any further policy divergence between the UK and the EU.     

The risk-shifting effect and the value of a warrant

The exercise of a warrant leads to the well-known dilution phenomenon, the effects of which have been extensively studied over the last four decades. In contrast, the existing literature has paid inadequate attention to the volatility spillover between stockholders and warrant holders. This ‘risk-shifting effect’ has significant implications for warrant pricing, since any formula that assumes a constant volatility of stock returns produces a bias. In this paper we show that a CEV process with a specific elasticity parameter properly models the stochastic volatility of stock returns for a firm with warrants outstanding. In addition, we propose an approximate analytical formula, exclusively based on observable market variables, that is able to absorb the risk-shifting bias.     

Organizational structure and earnings quality of private and public firms

Review of Accounting Studies - We examine how heterogeneity in organizational structure affects private firm earnings quality in the European Union. Organizational structure refers to whether the...     

Nonlinearity in monetary policy: A reconsideration of the opportunistic approach to disinflation

The proponents of the ‘opportunistic’ approach to disinflation suggest that, when inflation is close to the target, the central bank should not counteract inflationary pressures. Orphanides and Wilcox (2002) formalize this idea through a simple policy rule that prescribes a nonlinear adjustment to a history-dependent target for inflation. This embodies a regime change in monetary policy, which reacts to inflation only when this is far from the inflation target. Here we study the opportunistic approach in a New-Keynesian model with sizeable nominal and real rigidites in the form of a positive money demand and adjustment costs for investment. We find that the welfare gains delivered by the opportunistic rule arise from the time-varying inflation target, when welfare is measured by a quadratic approximation of household utility. The nonlinear zone of inaction on inflation improves welfare outcomes only when a central bank loss function with the absolute value of the output gap is used, as proposed by Orphanides and Wilcox (2002).     

The impact of local and external university knowledge on the creation of knowledge-intensive firms: evidence from the Italian case

This paper investigates how far in space university knowledge goes to breed the creation of knowledge-intensive firms (KIFs), depending on the nature (either codified or tacit) and quality of this knowledge. We consider the impact of knowledge codified in academic patents and scientific publications and tacit knowledge embodied in university graduates on KIF creation in Italian provinces in 2010, while distinguishing between local university knowledge created by universities located in the same province and external university knowledge created by universities located outside the province. Our econometric estimates indicate that the positive effects of scientific publications and university graduates are confined within the boundaries of the province in which universities are located. Conversely, the creation of new KIFs in a focal province is positively affected by both local and external university knowledge codified in academic patents, even though the positive effect of this external knowledge rapidly diminishes with geographic distance. Furthermore, the above effects are confined to high-quality universities; low-quality universities have little effect on KIF creation.     

The creation of cleantech startups at the local level: the role of knowledge availability and environmental awareness

Small Business Economics - In this paper, we explore which local factors affect the creation of cleantech startups in a geographical area. Specifically, we note that these startups combine...     

A Note on the (Un)Pleasant Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy: The Case of Italian Public Debt

Using the simple arithmetic of government budget constraint, we perform an illustrative analysis on the Italian case, investigating the consequences on the main public finance aggregates of the adoption of a fiscal policy rule responding to past real debt/GDP ratio. Such a rule, firmly grounded in the economic analysis, would allow the reduction of Italy's outstanding stock of debt without requiring the strict adherence to the 3 per cent criterion for deficit/GDP ratio, as prescribed by SGP (Stability and Growth Pact). We perform a forecasting exercise under five alternative scenarios and analyse the details of a structural debt reduction strategy with alternative yearly step.