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Blinder (1998) argues that more open public disclosure of central bank policies may enhance the efficiency of markets. We
examine this claim by studying whether the Federal Reserve System's 1994 policy shift toward more open disclosure improved
or worsened the predictability of financial markets. Employing methods analogous to Campbell and Shiller (1991), we find that
since 1994, the forecasting error has decreased for interest rates on U.S. bonds of most maturity lengths, and that the expectations
hypothesis has performed better at the low end of the yield curve. These findings are inconsistent with the view that increased
central bank transparency will decrease the efficiency of financial markets.
The authors would like to thank participants of the 2001 Midwest Macroeconomics Conference and 2001 Missouri Economics Conference
for their helpful comments and suggestions. All errors are, of course, the author's. 相似文献
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Productivity Trends in Europe: Implications for Real Exchange Rates, Real Interest Rates, and Inflation 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Matthew Canzoneri Robert Cumby Behzad Diba & Gwen Eudey 《Review of International Economics》2002,10(3):497-516
The paper examines a long–run (neoclassical) framework in which differences in productivity growth across sectors and countries lead to inflation differentials. In a currency union, these inflation differentials imply cross–country differentials in real interest rates. The authors estimate the likely size of these differentials for European Union countries, discuss the potential costs of persistent inflation differentials, and comment on the conflicts they may cause within Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). The analytical framework is a variant of the Balassa–Samuelson "productivity hypotheisis," which relates sectoral productivity trends to trends in the relative price of home goods. 相似文献
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Gary Harden 《Journal of Financial Services Marketing》2002,6(4):323-332
UK high street banks are continuing to extend the choice of channel through which customers can manage their moneycolon; an obvious example is e-banking. They have been keen to exploit technological advances and changing customer attitudes to alternative channels. Additionally, competition from leaner new market entrants has provided an added incentive to adopt new approaches. In the light of such developments, it is worth reflecting on the changing nature of the bank–customer relationship. This paper suggests that banks are finding it difficult to manage relationships effectively due, in large measure, to the sheer volume of customer data generated by new interactive, technology-based channels. Paradoxically, it seems that the more data banks have about customers the less likely they are to know them on a personal level. It is further suggested that channels such as e-banking potentially reduce the level of personal contact between bank and customer to the extent that a ‘virtual’ relationship develops. This paper concludes that, given the tendency towards ‘virtualisation’, it is inconceivable that bank–customer relationships will become any more intimate in the future. Indeed, a greater degree of personalisation in customer communication may be the very best that banks are able to offer. 相似文献
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