Price Transmission and Threshold Behavior in the African Catfish Supply Chain in Uganda

Abstract

The issue of price linkage in the catfish supply chain in Uganda is important because catfish has become an important traded species with exports to regional markets rising even faster than production, yet limited research has been undertaken to understand the linkages and the non-linearity in the price transmission mechanism. This paper explores the issue using monthly price data from January 2006 to August 2013, and applies threshold autoregressive approaches to test for the existence of a long-run relationship and price asymmetry. The results show that prices in the catfish value chain are tied together by a long-run relationship. It is also revealed that ex-vessel and wholesale price adjustments to retail price changes are symmetric while ex-vessel price adjustments to wholesale price changes are shown to be asymmetric. The direction of causal relationships was observed from the retail to the wholesale and ex-vessel markets, indicating that retailers are the price leaders in the Uganda catfish supply chain.     

Can a Mixed Health Care System be Desirable on Equity Grounds?*

Should health care provision be public, private, or both? We consider this question in a setting where people differ in their earnings capacity and face some illness risk. We assume that illness reduces an individual's time endowment when waiting for treatment. Treatment can be obtained in a competitive private sector (through private insurance) or in the National Health Service (NHS) where it is provided free of charge but after some (endogenous) waiting time. The equilibrium in the health care sector consists of a waiting time in the NHS such that no patient wants to switch health care provider. This equilibrium is governed by two public policies: the income tax system and the size of the NHS. We find that: (i) a mixed system with a small NHS is never desirable; (ii) actuarially fair sickness insurance is never desirable either; (iii) a mixed system with a sufficiently large NHS may improve on a pure public system if the dispersion of earnings capacities is large enough; and (iv) the welfare gains from such a mixed system are not likely to be significant.     

Home Equity Conversion Instruments with Fixed Term to Maturity: Alternatives to End of Term Pay-Off

Standard reverse annuity mortgages obligate the lender to take on the risk that an elderly homeowner will desire to remain in a residence after the RAM has reached maturity. In this case, the best the lender can hope for is that the property will have appreciated sufficiently that the loan can be carried at interest only. There is a possibility for lender loss but not gain over contracted return.
Alternatives to the standard RAM are explored in this paper with most attention devoted to shared appreciation and shared equity RAMs. These alternative instruments appear to solve the problem of maturity risk.     

Labor Mobility, Trade, and Social Capital

Labor market integration raises welfare in the absence of distortions. This paper examines labor and goods market integration in a general‐equilibrium model with social capital. The findings are: (i) labor market integration has an ambiguous impact on welfare, and raises it if the goods and labor skills are sufficiently different; (ii) compared to Pareto optimum, labor mobility (social capital) is excessively large (depleted); (iii) trade is superior to labor market integration if trading costs are no higher than private migration costs, otherwise the outcome is ambiguous; and (iv) the creation of new institutions in response to labor market integration has an ambiguous impact on welfare.     

The Valuation of Semiannual Bonds between Interest Payment Dates: A Correction

This note provides a correction to Taylor's 1988 work on the valuation of semiannual coupon bonds between interest payment dates. It shows that the discrepancy in values between Taylor's model and the standard Wall Street pricing formula is much smaller than indicated by Taylor and is unlikely to generate opportunities for arbitrage profits.     

Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads

An important research question examined in the credit risk literature focuses on the proportion of corporate yield spreads attributed to default risk. This topic is reexamined in light of the different issues associated with the computation of default probabilities obtained from historical default data. We find that the estimated default risk proportion in corporate yield spreads is sensitive to the ex ante estimated term structure of default probabilities used as inputs. This proportion can become a large fraction of the spread when sensitivity analyses are made with respect to the period over which the probabilities are estimated and the recovery rates.     

When does uncovered interest parity hold?

A consensus is emerging that returns to the currency carry trade are driven by two factors. One of these is probably consumption risk but there is widespread disagreement about the identity of the remaining factor. This paper bolsters the case for volatility being the unknown factor. A structural model that specifies that monetary volatility is the second factor is tested for 56 monetary regimes using the artificial economy methodology. The negative slope in the Fama regression arises when monetary volatility is low and the precautionary savings motive dominates the intertemporal substitution motive. When monetary volatility is high, the Fama slope is positive in line with uncovered interest parity. We conclude that, given the predominance of precautionary savings, the degree of monetary volatility explains whether uncovered interest parity holds.