AN ANNUAL CHAIN INDEX OF ITALY'S "REAL" PRODUCT, 1861–1989

The construction and application of a Paasche annual chain index to the Italian GDP figures between 1861 and 1989 is the subject of this article. Comparison with product at constant prices shows, except for war periods, a revaluation of GDP in favour of the annual chain index of around 0.10 percent. The most striking differences are concentrated into periods of marked changes in relative prices, and the new index modifies the temporal pattern of the growth trend by accentuating, without altering the periodization, cyclical fluctuations.     

Strategies for Fiscal Reform in the Context of the EMU: the Case of Portugal

The authors use an endogenous growth dynamic general‐equilibrium model, which accommodates the institutional constraints of the Stability and Growth Pact, to study tax reform in Portugal. Simulation results suggest that tax cuts financed in a nondistortionary way increase long‐term GDP; i.e., they are efficiency improving, but do not always increase welfare. The tradeoff between efficiency and welfare is alleviated when reductions in public spending or increased public indebtedness finance the tax cuts. Since these mechanisms are not realistic under the institutional setting of the Stability and Growth Pact, tax reform in Portugal must involve trading off distortionary tax margins. In this case, the best strategy to increase both efficiency and welfare is to increase investment tax credits and finance them either through personal income taxes or through employers’ social security contributions.     

Risky production processes and demand for preventive safety measures under uncertainty

This paper analyzes the behavior of a competitive risk-averse firm that has to choose the optimal level of labor and preventive safety measures. If the firm's injury function includes a random component, then the firm is characterized by a lower demand for labor and by a higher demand for safety measures with respect to a firm whose injury risk is completely under its control. The comparative statics show that shifts in the parameters of the risk distribution will have effects that depend on the absolute risk-aversion functions. The introduction of safety standards will prompt a reduction in the demand for labor while a tightening of the compensation system will have ambiguous effects on the demand for the two inputs.     

Simplified Risk Analysis in Agricultural Extension

Attention is given to the major methods of assessing risk in order to make choices. The literature frequently reports studies on mean-variance (E-V) analysis and stochastic dominance rules. Both of these methods are compared, in an agricultural application, with the approach outlined by Hanoch and Levy. The empirical results suggests that Hanoch and Levy's criterion appear to reduce the size of the risk-efficient set, and that the sets of recommendations from the methods under comparison were consistent. The two recommendations generated by Hanoch and Levy's rule were found to be reasonable for this particular decision process.     

ESTIMATION OF GLOBAL AND NATIONAL LOGISTICS EXPENDITURES: 2002 DATA UPDATE

The objective of this research was to estimate logistic expenditure for the global economy. An Artificial Neural Network was used to generate national estimates. The estimation set constitutes 24 countries representing approximately 75% of the global Gross Domestic Product. The model utilizes variables that capture economic activity, transportation activity, income level, country size, and geographic location. This research updates previous estimates and represents continuous improvement of the estimation method, including new input variables, better information quality, mathematical model refinement, and methods of model validation.     

Indeterminacy and nonlinear dynamics in an OLG growth model with endogenous labour supply and inherited tastes

This study analyses the dynamics of a two-dimensional overlapping generations economy with endogenous labour supply à la Reichlin (J Econ Theory 40(1):89–102, 1986) and aspirations. We show that the degree of nonlinearity of consumption externality in individual utility is responsible for the existence of either one steady state or two steady states. In addition, some interesting global dynamic properties, such as cyclical behaviour and/or global indeterminacy, emerge depending on the relative importance of aspirations in utility.