Approximate maximum likelihood estimation for stochastic differential equations with random effects in the drift and the diffusion

Consider N independent stochastic processes \((X_i(t), t\in [0,T])\), \(i=1,\ldots , N\), defined by a stochastic differential equation with random effects where the drift term depends linearly on a random vector \(\Phi _i\) and the diffusion coefficient depends on another linear random effect \(\Psi _i\). For these effects, we consider a joint parametric distribution. We propose and study two approximate likelihoods for estimating the parameters of this joint distribution based on discrete observations of the processes on a fixed time interval. Consistent and \(\sqrt{N}\)-asymptotically Gaussian estimators are obtained when both the number of individuals and the number of observations per individual tend to infinity. The estimation methods are investigated on simulated data and show good performances.     

The Dynamics of Self-Esteem and Physical Self: Between Preservation and Adaptation

The aim of this study was to model and characterize the psychologicalprocesses that underlie the dynamics of global self-esteem and physicalself over time. Twice a day for 228 consecutive days, seven participantscompleted a short inventory (PSI-6, Ninot et al., 2001) measuring sixsubjective dimensions: global self-esteem, physical self-worth, physicalcondition, sport competence, physical strength, and attractive body.Each series was modeled by means of ARIMA procedures. The resultsshowed that a simple moving average model provided a satisfactoryaccount for the dynamics of all series. This model suggests that acombination of two opposite processes underlies the dynamics ofself-concept: preservation, which tends to restore the previousvalue after a disturbance, and adaptation, which tends to inflectthe series in the direction of the perturbation.     

Stock market volatility,the news,and monetary policy

The dynamic relationship linking the volatility of equity prices with “the news” and the expected path for monetary policy is investigated. Previous results that link the impact of the news about real activity to changes in current and future interest rates are employed in developing a positive link between changes in volatility and the news. Empirically, our results uncover a positive and statistically significant response of the CBOE volatility index, VIX, to unanticipated changes in employment, but not to inflation. Hence, agents' expectations for the policy response to news have an important influence on the expected volatility of stock prices. (JEL E44, E52)     

Mixed Duopoly,Merger and Multiproduct Firms

The literature on mergers has extensively analyzed the decision to merge by private firms, but it has not considered the decision to merge by private and public firms. We assume that when a private firm and a public firm merge (or when one of them acquires the other), they set up a multiproduct firm in which the government owns an exogenous percentage stake. In this framework, we show that the decision to merge by firms depends on the degree to which goods are substitutes and on the percentage of the shares owned by the government in the multiproduct firm.     

A general framework for the analysis of fiscal equalisation systems

This paper shows that, despite the existing diversity of models of fiscal equalisation, there is a common underlying structure that links all of them. To this end, a framework of analysis sufficiently general so as to encompass the main schemes present in the literature is developed. This allows to uncover the common features of these schemes and to identify more readily the origin and nature of their differences. The formal approach is complemented with a numerical simulation of the models considered. The paper also shows the usefulness of the approach for reform policy and suggests two new models.JEL Classification: H2, H7I would like to thank three anonymous referees for their helpful comments and suggestions to a previous draft of this article.     

对企业财务管理中业财融合的思考

新时代背景下,业财融合是企业战略发展的需要,也是财务人员转型的方向.在传统的会计核算中,一般是先由公司各业务部门将业务数据交给财务人员,财务人员及时进行核算,进而核算出企业的收入、成本和利润等财务数据.在这一过程中,财务人员并不能起到监督作用.原有的财务工作模式已经不再适合当前企业的发展,甚至可以说,在这样的环境下企业...     

Basic Income in the Finnish Context

The goal of the Finnish experiment that started this year is to try to get some evidence on how a new social policy instrument mimicking a basic income would work and what kind of behavioural consequences it would have. At this point, there are many strong arguments being made both in favour of and opposed to basic income. Unfortunately, there are not enough facts yet. The Finnish experiment hopes to change that.     

ANFA — National Money Creation as an Existential Threat to the Currency Union?

The recent publication of the previously secret Agreement on Net Financial Assets (ANFA) directed the public’s attention to the possibility that national central banks could create money through purchases of securities on their own account. This paper provides an overview of the legal foundations for ANFA and shows the varying extent to which the member countries use these regulations. What are the interests, risks and consequences for the countries in crisis and the currency union as a whole? Is the ECB properly monitoring ANFA purchases? Could money creation via ANFA act as an explosive device for the currency union?     

Virtual Currencies,Distributed Ledgers and the Future of Financial Services

The phenomenon of virtual currencies has to be distinguished from the underlying distributed ledger technologies. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies need to be subject to strict financial regulation and supervision to ensure investor protection. At the same time, distributed ledger technologies will shape the future of the financial services in many respects. The disruptive potential is illustrated for selected financial products and processes.     

Reasoned Ethical Engagement: Ethical Values of Consumers as Primary Antecedents of Instrumental Actions Towards Multinationals

We examine the implications of the US government’s too-big-to-fail (TBTF) policy as it has been applied to banks. Using alternative measures of risk, we compare the risk-taking behavior of 11 TBTF banks, identified by the Comptroller of the Currency in 1984, to a number of non-TBTF banks. We provide both theory and new empirical evidence to support our argument that the TBTF policy leads management to significantly increase risk-taking, with no corresponding increase in performance. While prior studies have considered the effects of the TBTF policy on limited, but risk-related aspects of bank behavior, such as the cost of funds, our study provides direct evidence about the risk-taking behavior associated with the TBTF policy. Our study has important implications for the current political debate regarding the too-big-to-fail policy.