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Wirtschaftsdienst - Prices for energy and food are currently rising extraordinarily sharply. Households with low net incomes in particular are being burdened by the price increases, in some cases...     

A macroeconomic hedge portfolio and the cross section of stock returns

We use a stock's returns on days when important macroeconomic news is released to form a hedge portfolio, which is long (short) in stocks which have a sensitive (insensitive) reaction to the surprise component of the macroeconomic news. This macroeconomic hedge portfolio (MHP) earns a risk premium of about 5% p.a. over time and a similar premium when used as a risk factor in an asset pricing model. This premium can be interpreted as a cost of an insurance against unexpected changes in an investor's marginal utility. We show that risk premiums associated with the MHP are estimated with a higher precision than traditional macroeconomic tracking portfolios. Furthermore, when the MHP is present in a common factor model, risk factors like high minus low lose much of their ability to explain the cross section of stock returns.     

Should I stay,or should I go? – How fund dynamics influence venture capital exit decisions

We investigate the determinants of venture capital (VC) exit behavior after the lockup expiry in initial public offerings (IPOs) by considering insights from prospect theory and behavioral finance for the first time. Hereby, the paper concentrates on the under-researched relationship between fund managers and the limited partners investing in these funds. The results from a proprietary dataset of 292 U.S. VC-backed IPOs from 1991 to 2008 imply that VC firm characteristics and fund dynamics have a significant influence on the exit extent after the lockup expiry and may not always be in line with limited partners' interests, hinting at the relevance of behavior grounded in prospect theory. In particular, first-time funds keep their shares longer after an IPO, whereas funds satisfied with current fund performance cash out soon after the end of the lockup period.     

Are There Rational Bubbles in REITs? New Evidence from a Complex Systems Approach

This study applies a complex systems approach to test for the presence of rational bubbles in the Equity REITs market. The applied model is based on theoretical implications of the evolution of prices under rational bubble regimes. The advantage of the approach is twofold. The model is able to detect rational bubbles while they rise and to predict the most likely time of their collapse. We apply the model to daily price data on U.S. Equity REITs from 1989 to 2011. Our findings suggest the existence of a bubble for the period of 2003 to 2007. Tests for sub-markets reveal that the bubble developed in the Residential REITs market, but not in the Office REITs market.     

The pricing of temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange

This paper analyzes observed prices of US temperature futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Results show that an index modeling approach without detrending captures the prices exceptionally well. Moreover, weather forecasts significantly influence prices up to 11 days ahead. It is shown that valuations of temperature futures relying on a model without detrending yield biased valuations by overpricing winter contracts and underpricing summer contracts. Several trading strategies are devised to exploit the mispricing observed at the CME and to demonstrate that speculating on temperature futures can not only generate high overall returns, but also perform well on a risk-adjusted basis.     

Managing foreign R&D laboratories in China

This paper focuses on the management of R&D units established by foreign companies in China, investigating R&D missions, site build-up, integration with the parent organization, and overall performance measurement. The research is based on 37 qualitative expert interviews with local R&D directors and managers conducted between 2001 and 2004, using a semi-structured research questionnaire, and semi-quantitative research done on 199 foreign R&D labs in China. Cultural influences on R&D management, location advantages, expatriate involvement, and organizational evolution of local laboratories are discussed. We find that foreign R&D laboratories in China are not only important vehicles for local market development but also increasingly important sources of locally developed technology.     

A Framework for Market Discipline in Bank Regulatory Design

Abstract:   Given current debates on the future direction of regulatory design, the first objective of this paper is to contextualise the issues surrounding bank market discipline. Accordingly, the paper raises awareness of the current key themes within incentive‐based regulatory design and analyses the theory underlying market discipline. This leads to the creation of a theoretical framework of market discipline, which provides a powerful tool for understanding the conditions necessary for effective market discipline and for assessing the findings of market discipline‐related empirical research. The second objective is to emphasise the suitability of the theoretical framework for debates on contemporary market discipline and aiding future bank regulatory policy design, in particular, how to incorporate suitable, incentive mechanisms in international banking regulation.     

Structure and characteristics of top management teams as antecedents of outside executive appointments: a three-country study

We examine top management team (TMT) structure and characteristics as potential endogenous antecedents of outside appointments of non-CEO senior executives, an executive category that has not yet received significant research attention despite its importance for corporate outcomes. In doing so, we draw on human capital and similarity-attraction theories, thus combining two complementary managerial decision rationales. Additionally addressing the pressing need for cross-country TMT research, this study empirically analyzes a unique sample of 880 non-CEO TMT appointments at large non-financial corporations in France, Germany and the UK between 2006 and 2010. Overall, the results show that TMT endogenous factors such as structure, new executive characteristics and incumbent TMT characteristics may hold significant explanatory power for new executives' origin. Beyond the individual explanatory factors, the comparative nature of the study reveals three distinct country profiles of the degree by which the two theoretical rationales appear to influence appointment decisions.