DETERMINANTS AND CONSEQUENCES OF TASK UNCERTAINTY: A LABORATORY AND FIELD INVESTIGATION

This article presents evidence and argument concerning the utility of the concept of task uncertainty for organization theory and practice. The results from two studies, one field and one laboratory, are reported. The results support the hypotheses that: (1) perceptions of task uncertainty are a simple function of the number and analysability of exceptions encountered, and (2) perceptions of task exceptions and search difficulty have distinct relationships with behaviours of interest (communication and decision-making). Given these two findings, it is argued that the concept of task uncertainty should be replaced by the two source constructs.     

Can Stabilisation Policy Reduce Long-run Growth?

This paper presents an analysis of the long-run implications of short-term stabilisation policy. The analysis is based on a simple, stochastic model of an imperfectly competitive economy with nominal rigidities and an endogenous technology. By virtue of the latter, temporary shocks have permanent effects such that the cyclical and secular properties of output are related. In particular, smoother cyclical fluctuations may be associated with flatter secular trends, implying a trade-off between short-term stabilisation and long-term growth.     

An empirical analysis of organized crime,corruption and economic growth

In a companion study, Blackburn et al. (Econ Theory Bull, 2017), we have developed a theoretical framework for studying interactions between organized crime and corruption, with the view of examining the combined effects of these phenomena on economic growth. The analysis therein illustrates that organized crime has a negative effect on growth, but that the magnitude of the effect may be either enhanced or mitigated in the presence of corruption. In this paper we tackle the ambiguity produced by the coexistence of the two illicit activities with an empirical investigation using a panel of Italian regions for the period 1983–2009. We find that organized crime distorts growth less when it coexists with corruption and show our results to be robust to different specifications, measures of organized crime, and estimation techniques.     

The prevalence and impact of misstated incomes on mortgage loan applications

Misstatement of income on mortgage loan applications (the “liar-loan” problem) is thought to have been a contributor to the boom and bust of mortgage markets. We provide nationwide measurements that reflect the degree to which incomes on mid-2000 home-purchase mortgage loan applications were overstated relative to the actual incomes of mortgage applicants. Our results suggest a substantial degree of income overstatement in 2005 and 2006, one consistent with the average mortgage application overstating income 15–20%. We find the tendency to misstate income was associated with markets with large home-price increases during the boom. There is little support for the proposition that income overstatement played a substantial role in subsequent mortgage defaults.     

Spatial dependency and technical efficiency: an application of a Bayesian stochastic frontier model to irrigated and rainfed rice farmers in Bohol,Philippines

We investigated the role of spatial dependency in the technical efficiency estimates of rice farmers using panel data from the Central Visayan island of Bohol in the Philippines. Household‐level data were collected from irrigated and rainfed agro‐ecosystems. In each ecosystem, the geographical information on residential and farm‐plot neighborhood structures was recorded to compare household‐level spatial dependency among four types of neighborhoods. A Bayesian stochastic frontier approach that integrates spatial dependency was used to address the effects of neighborhood structures on farmers’ performance. Incorporating the spatial dimension into the neighborhood structures allowed for identification of the relationships between spatial dependency and technical efficiency through comparison with nonspatial models. The neighborhood structure at the residence and plot levels were defined with a spatial weight matrix where cut‐off distances ranged from 100 to 1,000 m. We found that spatial dependency exists at the residential and plot levels and is stronger for irrigated farms than rainfed farms. We also found that technical inefficiency levels decrease as spatial effects are more taken into account. Because the spatial effects increase with a shorter network distance, the decreasing technical inefficiency implies that the unobserved inefficiencies can be explained better by considering small networks of relatively close farmers over large networks of distant farmers.     

Do minimum wages raise employment? Evidence from the U.S. retail-trade sector

This paper examines the impact of minimum wages on earnings and employment in selected branches of the retail-trade sector, 1990–2005, using county-level data on employment and a panel regression framework that allows for county-specific trends in sectoral outcomes. We focus on specific subsectors within retail trade that are identified as particularly low-wage. We find little evidence of disemployment effects once we allow for geographic-specific trends. Indeed, in many sectors the evidence points to modest (but robust) positive employment effects.     

Efficiency and Equity in Funding for Government Schools in Australia

This study measures cost inefficiency for government school in New South Wales, Australia using a two‐stage data envelopment analysis (TSDEA) model and the inefficiency‐effects model (Battese & Coelli, 1995). The study found overall primary schools are 75 per cent and secondary schools are 89 per cent cost efficient. However, cost efficiency for primary schools has decreased and for secondary schools has increased marginally over the study period. The study found that social disadvantage in primary schools exerts a strong negative impact on students’ achievement scores causing inefficient use of available resources. For secondary schools no such conclusive relationship is observed.     

Corruption, inflation and growth

We present a model in which the embezzlement of tax revenues by public officials leads the government to rely more on seigniorage to finance its expenditures. This raises inflation which depresses investment and growth via a cash-in-advance constraint.     

Financial Development, Financing Choice and Economic Growth

In an overlapping generations economy, households (lenders) fund risky investment projects of firms (borrowers) by drawing up loan contracts on the basis of asymmetric information. An optimal contract entails either the issue of only debt or the issue of both debt and equity according to whether a household faces a single or double enforcement problem as a result of its own decision about whether or not to undertake costly information acquisition. The equilibrium choice of contract depends on the state of the economy which, in turn, depends on the contracting regime. Based on this analysis, the paper provides a theory of the joint determination of real and financial development, with the ability to explain both the endogenous emergence of stock markets and the complementarity between debt finance and equity finance.