Wisdom of the crowd and stock price crash risk: evidence from social media

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - In this study, we investigate the impact of social media on future stock price crash risk. A stock price crash occurs when managers hoard bad news...     

Bank systemic risk: An analysis of the sovereign rating ceiling policy and rating downgrades

We investigate the impact that the sovereign ceiling policy has on financial stability. In the event of a sovereign rating downgrade, we find that the rating agencies' sovereign ceiling policy leads to a disproportionate downgrade of the most creditworthy financial institutions in the economy and results in increased systemic risk. This asymmetric variation in bank ratings also impairs equity growth that further exacerbates bank insolvency. Our results are robust to several matching techniques, such as propensity score matching and entropy balancing, falsification tests, subsample analyses, alternative empirical proxies and model specifications.     

Russia–Ukraine crisis: The effects on the European stock market

We examine the effect of the Russia–Ukraine crisis on the European stock markets. Because of increased political uncertainty, geographic proximity and the ramifications of the fresh sanctions imposed on Russia, the European stock markets tended to react negatively to this crisis. We find that on 21 February 2022, when Russia recognized two Ukrainian states as autonomous regions, European stocks incurred a significant negative abnormal return. Moreover, the negative stock price reactions continued in the post-event period. The magnitude of the stock price reactions to this crisis exhibits considerable variation across industries, countries and size of the company.     

When it Rains,it Pours: Estimating the Spatial Spillover Effect of Rainfall

Environmental and Resource Economics - A large fraction of the world’s poor rely on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns. In this paper, we...     

Diffusion of integrated reporting,insights and potential avenues for future research

This study reviews the diffusion of integrated reporting (IR) research. The systematic literature review method is used to review the effects of IR at the organisational level, determinants of IR adoption and integrated report quality (IRQ), assurance on IR, economic consequences of IR/IRQ, and research design issues to set agendas for future research. The review covers 119 peer-reviewed IR articles published in 36 journals between 2012 and 2021. It finds that the IR literature is dominated by organisational-level studies, but there is limited research on the economic consequences of IR/IRQ, and the findings are inconclusive to date. Further, the factors that determine IR adoption/IRQ are not conclusive, and there is scarce research on IR assurance. This review contributes to the emerging IR literature and provides valuable insights to the International Integrated Reporting Council (IIRC) in establishing the IR framework as a global reporting norm in practice.     

An economic assessment of options for operating within plantation forestry water entitlements and tightening cap and trade policy

The Green Triangle (GT) region of southern Australia is one of only two jurisdictions globally to licence plantation forestry's groundwater use. In response to declines in groundwater resources caused by historical plantation expansion, reductions in forest water allocations (~50%) are likely for some parts of the region, presenting novel challenges for forest managers in maintaining revenues and timber flows. This article presents a mathematical programming model evaluation of water trade opportunities for plantation forest owners to adapt to reduced water entitlements and explores how tightening groundwater policy could affect forestry returns and land use mix for the region. Results suggest that even absent opportunity to sell water, relatively limited 11% reduction in return could be expected for a large (−50%) water entitlement and (−48%) land-use change out of forestry. Results suggest that opportunities for forestry companies to sell water entitlements may allow them to maintain or even increase combined returns from forestry and water sales. Whilst the results highlight the adaptive capacity of the plantation forestry sector to operate within reduced water entitlement, a significant sectoral and regional economy adjustment would be likely. The discussion focusses on the potential to realise optimisation model-identified adaptation opportunities accounting for real-world thin markets, transaction costs and market friction.     

Predicting accounting fraud using imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers – evidence from China

The current research aims to launch effective accounting fraud detection models using imbalanced ensemble learning algorithms for China A-Share listed firms. Based on a sample of 33,544 Chinese firm-year instances from 1998 to 2017, this research respectively established one logistic regression and four ensemble learning classifiers (AdaBoost, XGBoost, CUSBoost, and RUSBoost) by 12 financial ratios and 28 raw financial data. Additionally, we divided the sample into the train and test observations to evaluate the classifiers' out-of-sample performance. In detail, we applied two metrics, namely, Area under the ROC (receiver operating characteristic) curve (AUC) and Area under the Precision-Recall curve (AUPR), to evaluate classifiers' discriminability. In the supplement test, this study put forward an algebraic fused model on the basis of the four ensemble learning classifiers and introduced the sliding window technique. The empirical results showed that the ensemble learning classifiers can detect accounting fraud for the imbalanced China A-listed firms far more effectively than the logistic regression model. Moreover, imbalanced ensemble learning classifiers (CUSBoost and RUSBoost) effectively performed better than the common ensemble learning models (AdaBoost and XGBoost) in average. The algebraic fused model in the supplement test also obtained the highest average AUC and AUPR among all the employed algorithms. Our results offer firm support for the potential role of Machine Learning (ML)-based Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches in reliably predicting accounting fraud with high accuracy. Similarly, for the Chinese settings, our ML-based AI offers utmost advantage in forecasting accounting fraud. Finally, this paper fills the research gap on the applications of imbalanced ensemble learning in accounting fraud detection for Chinese listed firms.     

Effects of audit committee chair characteristics on auditor choice,audit fee and audit quality

We investigate whether the characteristics of audit committee (AC) chairs are associated with decisions about auditor choice, audit fees and audit quality. Using hand-collected Australian data, firms with AC chairs who have longer tenure and multiple AC memberships across several boards are found to be more likely to choose Big 4 and/or industry specialist auditors, pay higher audit fees and have lower discretionary accruals. Those AC chairs with higher business qualifications are more likely to hire a Big 4 auditor, pay higher audit fees and have lower discretionary accruals, while AC chairs with professional qualifications are more likely to hire a Big 4 and/or industry specialist auditor. In contrast, firms with AC chairs who are executive directors are less likely to hire a Big 4 auditor and have higher discretionary accruals. Our findings contribute to the literature by documenting that various characteristics of AC chairs are important for enhancement of auditor selection and audit quality.     

Capitalised nonmarket benefits of multifunctional water-sensitive urban infrastructure: A case of living streams

Living streams are an important element of decentralised stormwater management solutions. They are actively promoted due to their ability to generate multiple ecosystem services, including water quality improvement, biodiversity protection and aesthetics. However, a lack of monetised values of ecosystem services of living stream projects makes it difficult to assess the net benefits of investing in such projects. This study uses the hedonic pricing method to estimate the capitalised amenity values of living streams and other public open spaces (POS) in housing and lot markets for the first time. The study area includes two newly greenfield-developed suburbs in the Perth metropolitan area. We find the positive impact of living streams and other POS on the house and lot prices. However, living streams generate greater value than other types of POS. Furthermore, the POS (including living streams) that support active recreation are valued more than basic POS without active recreation features. Finally, we observe, for the first time, that the benefits of planned but not yet constructed POS (including living stream) are similar to the completed POS (including living stream) in both housing and lot markets. This information is useful for policymakers and developers making informed decisions about water-sensitive urban infrastructure.     

Structural changes and economic landscape of the Indian economy: 2000-2019

This study employs input-output analysis to determine the extent of structural changes in the Indian economy, as well as how economic sector linkages changed between 2000 and 2019, and identifies the sectors with profound linkages with other sectors.  Furthermore, we use the causative matrix to examine the temporal changes in intersectoral interactions. The analysis shows that manufacturing sectors have stronger intersectoral linkages than sevice sectors, with resource-intensive and scale-intensive manufacturing sectors having the most profound linkages. Furthermore, the causative matrix analysis reveals that Indian sectors became more externalized following the global financial crises, while receiving less feedback from other sectors. The results suggest that intersectoral linkages should be taken into account when designing industrial policies, and that investment should be encouraged in India's key economic sectors.