Die Erwartungen der Wirtschaft für 2016

Last year saw only a moderate economic upturn, which will continue in 2016. Geopolitical risks and the loss of momentum in the emerging economies are obstacles that may hinder a positive trend in exports. However, the falling crude oil price and the low euro currency rate give hope for better prospects. On the domestic front, there is a strong focus on the digitisation of all sectors. Meanwhile, many problems result from the low level of investments and the high energy costs resulting from the energy transition. The insurance industry views the low-yield environment, which greatly intensified last year, as its main challenge in 2016.     

Evolutionary Business Information Systems

This article reflects on existing and emerging future challenges arising in the area of “evolutionary business information systems”, a class of systems that demand an evolutionary software development process and which support secondary design of various conceptual layers. We place both existing contributions and future research opportunities in context by referring to an idealized, preliminary system architecture. Finally, we emphasize our pluralistic perspective on the research object and the resulting need for methodological flexibility in the sense of interdisciplinary configurations of research methods.     

Vor der Europawahl: Wie lässt sich die demokratische Legitimität verbessern?

The EU suffers from a democratic deficit that arises not first and foremost from a lack of institutional competencies, but rather from the double weakness of politics vis-à-vis economics and law at the European level. This “functional democratic deficit” renders the existing mechanisms of democratic control increasingly ineffective. Especially for its citizens, a politically integrated Europen Union might be difficult to grasp, and it may only be reached gradually through a continuous process of dynamic development; however, “United in Diversity” seems to be the better alternative, and not only for historical reasons. The direct elections for the European Parliament, although not denying deficits of democratic legitimacy and participation at the Union level, should not be underestimated in their legitimising influence for the Union as an associated structure of members without obvious hierarchies.     

Communicating Deception: Differences in Language Use,Justifications, and Questions for Lies,Omissions, and Truths

The use of linguistics to detect deception is a growing field of study. This experiment used naturally-occurring deception to test the propositions and fundamental assumptions of this line of inquiry. One participant (allocator) was given 6 dollars to divide between herself and another participant (receiver). Receivers were not told how much money allocators received. In 1/3 of interactions, the recipient was deceived either with a lie or deceptive omission. Linguistic differences associated with deception (fewer first person pronouns) were found for lies and omission, but higher word count was only found for omission. We found no evidence of a relationship between negative emotion and linguistic factors related to emotion (negative emotion words, negations, pronouns). Coding of justifications found allocators used more justifications for their offers when recipient was suspicious. Liars used more justifications providing details about how they obtained the money. Justifications about offer fairness were related to increased detection accuracy.     

Structural models of complementary choices

This article reviews the rapidly growing literature on structural models of complementary choices. It discusses recent modeling developments and identifies promising areas for future research.     

Fußball-Bundesliga: Zentralvermarktung und Beihilfen fördern Dominanz einzelner Clubs

In order to maintain competitive balance and uncertainty of outcome, professional sports leagues have developed several kinds of distribution mechanisms. For example, in Germany one of these is the collective selling of television rights for football matches by the league organisation, which enables the league to share television revenues. In this article it is argued that central marketing and sharing of television revenues in German football does not enhance competitive balance among members of the Bundesliga but rather leads to a lesser degree of competitive balance and thus less uncertainty of outcome in the league. Because public broadcasting stations pay for television rights from which some clubs profit more than others, it can be seen as illegal state aid for these clubs.     

Deconstructing Subtle Racist Imagery in Television Ads

Although ads with subtle racist imagery can reinforce negative stereotypes, advertisers can eliminate this problem. After a brief overview of predominantly U.S.-based research on the racial mix of models/actors in ads, a theoretical framework for unmasking subtle racial bias is provided and dimensional qualitative research (DQR) is introduced as a method for identifying and rectifying such ad imagery. Results of a DQR-based study of 622 U.K. television ads with at least one Black actor indicate (1) subtle racially biased imagery now supersedes overt forms, and (2) the most popular ad appeals often mask negative stereotypes. Implications for public policy and advertisers, as well as recommendations for future research, are discussed.     

A Framework for Assessing Global Imbalances1

Since the mid‐1990s and prior to the financial crisis external balances of systemically important economies widened significantly. This paper takes a long‐run perspective and reviews the main determinants of widening global imbalances. To this aim, we first provide a set of newly derived statistical measures: while large external imbalances are not new in economic history, their persistence, their concentration on one economy (the United States) and the specific role of emerging market economies make the present episode rather unique. Second, we argue that the observed pattern of imbalances can be mostly understood as a result of various structural changes in the global economy, which have allowed a widening trend of external positions. Three main features set the most recent period apart from past episodes of growing external imbalances: (i) the emergence of new players, in particular emerging market economies such as China and India, which are quickly catching up with the advanced economies; (ii) an unprecedented wave of financial globalisation, with more integrated global financial markets and increasing opportunities for international portfolio diversification, also characterised by considerable asymmetries in the level of market completeness across countries; and (iii) the favourable global macroeconomic and financial environment, with record high global growth rates in recent years, low financial market volatility and easy global financing conditions over a long period of time, running until the outburst of the financial crisis during the summer of 2007. These structural changes that have been supplemented by cyclical or policy‐induced factors ultimately facilitated the sudden, disorderly unwinding of global imbalances that is reflected in the current financial crisis.     

Determinants of Ethical Behavior: A Study of Autosalespeople

This study proposes a model that explains the ethical behavior of automobile salespeople in terms of their ethical perception, legal perception, method of compensation (commission-based or salary-based), age, and education. The model is estimated by using five scenarios that involve ethical issues commonly found in the automobile industry and responses from 184 automobile salespeople in a mid-Atlantic metropolitan area. The findings suggest that ethical perception is the most important determinant of ethical behavior. Also, method of compensation is a major determinant in four of five scenarios, and legal perception in two out of five scenarios. However, age and education are not significantly related to ethical behavior. A discussion of the results, limitations, and implications is presented for managers.