THE ROLE OF LABOR AND MARRIAGE MARKETS,PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY,AND THE WELFARE SYSTEM IN THE LIFE CYCLE DECISIONS OF BLACK,HISPANIC, AND WHITE WOMEN*

Using data from the NLSY79, we structurally estimate a dynamic model of the life cycle decisions of young women. The women make sequential joint decisions about school attendance, work, marriage, fertility, and welfare participation. We use the model to perform counterfactual simulations designed to shed light on three questions: (1) How much of observed minority–majority differences in behavior can be attributed to differences in labor market opportunities, marriage market opportunities, and preference heterogeneity? (2) How does the welfare system interact with these factors to augment those differences? (3) How can new cohorts that grow up under the new welfare system (Temporary Aid for Needy Families) be expected to behave compared to older cohorts?     

Bilateral and Third‐Country Exchange Rate Effects on Multinational Activity

In an earlier paper, we showed that bilateral exchange rates are important determinants of multinational activity of both the US and Japan and that increases in the bilateral and third‐country exchange rates exert opposing effects on bilateral multinational activity. Furthermore, the signs of the exchange rate coefficients differ between Japan and the US. In this paper, we formulate a three‐country model with coexisting exporters and multinational firms that engage in Cournot competition to rationalize these effects. In this model, we identify two counteracting effects which govern the bilateral and third‐country effects of an exchange rate increase on bilateral multinational activity. Our theoretical framework is flexible enough to explain the Japanese as well as the US patterns of exchange rate effects and it allows us to identify those factors that are responsible for the respective differences.     

The Labour Market Effects of Vocational Education and Training in Australia

We provide estimates of the effects of completing a Vocational Education and Training (VET) qualification on individual labour market outcomes, particularly on the probability of employment and on earnings. Estimates are provided for 1997, 2001 and 2005. The estimation methodology is based on matched comparisons of persons at each level of VET qualification among Year 12 completers and non‐completers. We find that among Year 12 completers, there is little benefit from obtaining certificate level qualifications, but there are positive employment and earnings outcomes associated with obtaining diploma level qualifications. Among persons who did not complete Year 12, however, there are benefits from obtaining any kind of VET qualification, including the lower level Certificate I and II qualifications.     

Capital Controls,Global Liquidity Traps,and the International Policy Trilemma*

The zero bound on interest rates introduces a new dimension to the trilemma in international policy. The openness of the international financial market might render monetary policy ineffective, even within a system of fully flexible exchange rates, because shocks that lead to a liquidity trap in one country are propagated through financial markets to other countries. However, the effectiveness of monetary policy can be restored by the imposition of capital controls. We derive the optimal response of monetary policy to a global liquidity trap in the presence of capital controls. We show that, even though capital controls might facilitate effective monetary policy, capital controls are not generally desirable in terms of welfare.     

The maximum number of parameters for the Hausman test when the estimators are from different sets of equations

Hausman (1978) developed a widely-used model specification test that has passed the test of time. In this paper, we show that the asymptotic variance of the difference of the two estimators can be a singular matrix. Three illustrative examples are used, namely an exogeneity test for the linear regression model, a test for the Box–Cox transformation, and a test for sample selection bias.     

Competing mechanisms

The recent literature on competing mechanisms has devoted a lot of effort at understanding a very complex and abstract issue. In particular, an agent's type in a competitive environment is hard to conceptualize because it depends on information the agent has about what is going on in the rest of the market. This paper explains why this is such an important practical problem and illustrates how the literature has “solved” it.     

Will Sub-Prime be a Twin Crisis for the United States?

We identify incentives generated by the Bretton Woods II system that may have contributed to the sub-prime liquidity crisis now working its way through the international monetary system. We then evaluate the persistent conjecture that the liquidity crisis is or will become a balance of payments crisis for the United States. Given that it happens, the additional costs associated with a sudden stop of net capital flows to the United States could be quite substantial. But we observe that emerging market governments have continued to acquire US assets even as yields have fallen, and the incentives for continuing to do so remain strong. Moreover, the Bretton Woods II system, which has clearly been the most resilient of the forces driving current markets, continues to generate low real interest rates in industrial countries and growth in emerging markets that will help limit the damage from the liquidity crisis.     

Do foreign exchange forecasters apply asymmetric loss functions? Evidence from three major exchange rates

This article investigates which type of loss function is consistent with the hypothesis that major exchange rate forecasts, i.e. the euro, the British pound, and the Japanese yen vis-à-vis the US dollar, are rational. We apply a comprehensive data set, which also allows us to examine different forecast horizons and heterogeneity of forecasters.     

The effect of investment and withdrawal horizons on myopic loss aversion

Using unique survey data, we find that a longer investment horizon (6–10 years and 11+ years) reduces the likelihood of exhibiting myopic loss aversion (MLA) compared to an investment horizon of less than 2 years. In addition, we find that investors with higher levels of assets under management (AUM) are less likely to exhibit MLA compared to the lowest AUM quartile.     

Decrease in American birth rates makes it imperative for the United States to implement state mandated fertility coverage

In recent years, the prevalence of infertility has increased due to delayed childbearing and an increase in the rate of male infertility. Given the high cost of fertility treatment, this option is not valid for families with a low income, and those who can afford it usually choose to have multiple embryo transfer, which has led to an increase in multiple birth rates and an increase in the cost of perinatal care. Due to the expected increase in infertility and decrease in the national live birth rate, the US should set a plan to fund infertility treatment and lead a policy for single embryo transfer. This will offset the decrease in the national birth rates and decrease expenditure on perinatal and neonatal complications resulting from multiple births.