Developing Equity Release Markets: Risk Analysis for Reverse Mortgages and Home Reversions

Equity release products are sorely needed in an aging population with high levels of home ownership. There has been a growing literature analyzing risk components and capital adequacy of reverse mortgages in recent years. However, little research has been done on the risk analysis of other equity release products, such as home reversion contracts. This is partly due to the dominance of reverse mortgage products in equity release markets worldwide. In this article we compare cash flows and risk profiles from the provider's perspective for reverse mortgage and home reversion contracts. An at-home/in long-term care split termination model is employed to calculate termination rates, and a vector autoregressive (VAR) model is used to depict the joint dynamics of economic variables including interest rates, house prices, and rental yields. We derive stochastic discount factors from the no arbitrage condition and price the no negative equity guarantee in reverse mortgages and the lease for life agreement in the home reversion plan accordingly. We compare expected payoffs and assess riskiness of these two equity release products via commonly used risk measures: Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR).     

Improving retirement adequacy through asset class prioritization

Highly risk-averse retirees are generally advised to adopt a fixed spending strategy such as the 4% withdrawal rule. To prevent the premature depletion of a retirement portfolio, the rule attempts to proxy as the ‘safe withdrawal rate’. But a constant withdrawal rate means that retirees accumulate unspent surpluses when markets outperform and face spending shortfalls when markets underperform. While a safe withdrawal rate can prevent spending shortfalls, the opportunity cost of unspent surpluses associated with this strategy can be extreme. We apply a range of basic investment decision rules to a retirement portfolio applying various withdrawal rates and examine the probability of shortfalls over a retirement horizon. Using a block bootstrap simulation technique, we examine decision rules relating to stock and bond investments. Our results show that retirement portfolios with a bias towards stocks coupled with a decision rule that sources withdrawals from bonds and cash before stocks significantly outperforms alternative withdrawal strategies, despite the inherent increase in volatility. This finding is in direct contrast to the safe withdrawal rate conventions used in contemporary financial advice models.     

Optimal constrained investment in the Cramer-Lundberg model

We consider an insurance company whose surplus is represented by the classical Cramer-Lundberg process. The company can invest its surplus in a risk-free asset and in a risky asset, governed by the Black-Scholes equation. There is a constraint that the insurance company can only invest in the risky asset at a limited leveraging level; more precisely, when purchasing, the ratio of the investment amount in the risky asset to the surplus level is no more than a; and when short-selling, the proportion of the proceeds from the short-selling to the surplus level is no more than b. The objective is to find an optimal investment policy that minimizes the probability of ruin. The minimal ruin probability as a function of the initial surplus is characterized by a classical solution to the corresponding Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman (HJB) equation. We study the optimal control policy and its properties. The interrelation between the parameters of the model plays a crucial role in the qualitative behavior of the optimal policy. For example, for some ratios between a and b, quite unusual and at first ostensibly counterintuitive policies may appear, like short-selling a stock with a higher rate of return to earn lower interest, or borrowing at a higher rate to invest in a stock with lower rate of return. This is in sharp contrast with the unrestricted case, first studied in Hipp and Plum, or with the case of no short-selling and no borrowing studied in Azcue and Muler.     

Incentives,wages, employment,and the division of labor in teams

We develop a theory of incentives, wages, and employment in the context of team production. A central insight is that specialization and division of labor not only improve productivity but also increase effort and the sensitivity of effort to incentives under moral hazard. We show that employment and incentives are complements for the principal when the positive effects of specialization and division of labor outweigh the increase in risk associated with additional employment and are substitutes otherwise. We provide new characterizations of the partnership, the firm, and the role of the budget‐breaker that are quite different from the classical literature.     

Corporate risk-taking,firm value and high levels of managerial earnings forecasts

We examine the impact of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts, an important form of voluntary disclosure, on corporate risk-taking and firm value. Theory and anecdotal evidence suggest that a policy of high disclosure may reduce managers' willingness to invest in higher-risk, higher-return projects. We first verify, as in prior research, that corporate risk-taking is associated with higher future firm value. We then document a negative relation between firms with high levels of forecasting and corporate risk-taking. Finally, we provide evidence suggesting that high levels of managerial earnings forecasts reduce the positive association between corporate risk-taking and future firm value. Our results are robust to alternative measures of corporate risk-taking and future firm value, and alternative definitions of high levels of managerial earnings forecasts. Our results may be of importance to varying interests as they highlight the potential for high levels of earnings forecasts to inhibit corporate risk-taking and lower firm value.     

Secured debt and managerial incentives

Financial theory holds that firms can control agency costs through the use of short-term and secured debt. We examine the relation between the use of secured debt and the incentive of the manager to increase the risk of the firm, as measured by vega. We find that firms utilize secured debt to a lesser extent when managerial volatility sensitivity is higher. Our results suggest that these same firms employ short-term debt as the primary tool to control risk-shifting. Managers with a high risk appetite avoid secured debt, but appear to do so without compromising the interests of the shareholders.     

The relationship between legitimacy,reputation, sustainability and branding for companies and their supply chains

This paper aims at filling a gap that we perceive to exist in the scientific literature as to legitimacy, reputation and sustainability and their interrelationship to corporate and supply chain branding. A series of innovative theoretical frameworks are provided interrelating companies and their value (supply) chains with legitimacy, reputation, and branding which are essential conditions to achieve sustainability and competitive advantage based on dyadic and social context consonance to the benefit of society and all stakeholders involved. An urgently required better understanding of the concepts and their interrelations is enhanced by a synthesized explanatory basis entailing an eclectic mosaic of interdisciplinary theories (institutionalist, neo-institutionalist theories, the viable system approach, isomorphism and identity) to improve corporate and supply chain performance. To better inform managerial practice the theoretical considerations are spiced with case studies among which especially the currently debated supply chain case of the European horse meat scandal is illuminated suggesting concrete managerial cross-functional implications in the food industry. The paper culminates in the call for a newly to-be-established marketing stream we call ‘Sustainable and Curative Marketing’.     

Product pricing and solvency capital requirements for long-term care insurance

This paper presents a comprehensive assessment of premiums, reserves and solvency capital requirements (SCRs) for long-term care (LTC) insurance policies using Activities of Daily Living and US data. We compare stand-alone policies, whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders (LTC insurance combined with whole life insurance), life care annuities (LTC insurance combined with annuities) and shared LTC insurance in terms of net premium cost and SCRs. Net premiums and best-estimate reserves for base LTC insurance policies are determined using Thiele’s differential equation. Product features such as the elimination period and the maximum benefit period are compared using a simulation-based model. We show how a maximum benefit period can reduce costs and risks for LTC insurance products. SCRs for longevity risk and disability risk are based on the Solvency II standard formula. We quantify the extent to which whole life insurance policies with LTC benefit riders and life care annuities provide lower SCRs than stand-alone LTC insurance policies.     

Revolutionary Maoism and the Production of State and Insurgent Space in Eastern and Central India

This article situates India’s Maoist insurgency within longer term processes of state expansion in the east and centre of the country. Drawing on Henri Lefebvre’s work on space, its core claim is that since the onset of colonialism the region has been produced as a peripheral area whose primary function has been as a zone of settlement and a source of natural resources. Consequently the state has been simultaneously thin and repressive, leading to the creation of an oppositional insurgent space in which the Maoist guerrillas are only the most recent and visible actors. Currently new patterns of hyper-state and hybrid state/insurgent spaces are emerging: the former structured around the forced relocation of entire populations into tightly controlled and regulated camps and the latter around an emergent system of dual authority in which the demarcation between official and insurgent governance is blurred.