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131.
Synopsis This paper is the product of a collaboration between a biologist (Ghiselin 1997) who works on the philosophy of classification
and an economist (Landa 1981, 1994) who works on the ‘Economics of Identity’: how and why people classify people based on
identity in the context of a theory of ethnic trading networks. In developing the ‘bioeconomics’ (the synthesis of economics
with biology) of classification, we crossed a number of disciplinary boundaries—anthropology, economics, sociology, biology,
and cognitive psychology including evolutionary psychology’s ‘fast and frugal’ heuristics. Using a bioeconomics approach,
we argue that folk classifications—the classifications used by ordinary persons—have much in common with scientific classifications:
underlying both is the need for economy of information processing in the brain, for the efficient organization of knowledge,
and for efficiency of information acquisition and transmission of information to others. Both evolve as a result of trial
and error, but in science there is relatively more foresight, understanding, and planning. 相似文献
132.
Summary In this paper we consider a class of time discrete intertemporal optimization models in one dimension. We present a technique to construct intertemporal optimization models with nonconcave objective functions, such that the optimal policy function coincides with any pre-specifiedC
2 function. Our result is a variant of the approach presented in a seminal paper by Boldrin and Montrucchio (1986). Whereas they solved the inverse problem for the reduced form models, we address the different question of how to construct both reduced and primitive form models. Using our technique one can guarantee required qualitative properties not only in reduced, but also in primitive form. The fact that our constructed model has a single valued and continuous optimal policy is very important as, in general, nonconcave problems yield set valued optimal policy correspondences which are typically hard to analyze. To illustrate our constructive approach we apply it to a simple nonconcave model.We are grateful for the helpful comments of L. Montrucchio, K. Nishimura, T. Mitra and an anonymous referee. Financial support of the Austrian Science Foundation under contract No. P7783-PHY and No. J01003-SOZ is gratefully acknowledged. This paper was written while M. Kopel was visiting the Department of Economics, Cornell University. 相似文献
133.
Sequential estimation problems for the mean parameter of an exponential distribution has received much attention over the
years. Purely sequential and accelerated sequential estimators and their asymptotic second-order characteristics have been
laid out in the existing literature, both for minimum risk point as well as bounded length confidence interval estimation
of the mean parameter. Having obtained a data set from such sequentially designed experiments, the paper investigates estimation
problems for the associatedreliability function. Second-order approximations are provided for the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator of the reliability
function, first under a general setup. An ad hoc bias-corrected version is also introduced. Then, the proposed estimator is
investigated further under some specific sequential sampling strategies, already available in the literature. In the end,
simulation results are presented for comparing the proposed estimators of the reliability function for moderate sample sizes
and various sequential sampling strategies. 相似文献
134.
We develop a model of marketing efficiency based on a directional distance function that allows for marketing spillovers. A parametric model is used to test for spillovers from rival marketing and from a firm's marketing activity of its other related products. We then show how this information can be incorporated into a non‐parametric model and used to estimate marketing inefficiency. We apply brand level data from the US brewing industry to the non‐parametric model to determine the effectiveness of television, radio, and print advertising. We find that advertising spillovers are important in brewing and show that efficiency estimates are inaccurate when spillover effects are ignored. Our results also suggest that marketing efficiency may be an important component to firm success in brewing, a result that may apply to other consumer goods industries. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
135.
136.
We consider whether oil prices can account for business cycle asymmetries. We test for asymmetries based on the Markov switching
autoregressive model popularized by Hamilton (1989), using the tests devised by Clements and Krolzig (2000). We find evidence
against the conventional wisdom that recessions are more violent than expansions: while some part of the downturn in economic
activity that characterises recessionary periods can be attributed to dramatic changes in the price of oil, post-War US economic
growth is characterized by the steepness of expansions.
First Version Received: December 2000/Final Version Received: September 2001 相似文献
137.
This paper introduces the idea of “robust political economy.” In the context of political economic systems, “robustness” refers
to a political economic arrangement's ability to produce social welfare-enhancing outcomes in the face of deviations from
ideal assumptions about individuals' motivations and information. Since standard assumptions about complete and perfect information,
instantaneous market adjustment, perfect agent rationality, political actor benevolence, etc., rarely, if ever actually hold,
a realistic picture and accurate assessment of the desirability of alternative political economic systems requires an analysis
of alternative systems' robustness. The Mises-Hayek critique of socialism forms the foundation for investigations of robustness
that relax ideal informational assumptions. The Buchanan-Tullock public choice approach complements this foundation in forming
the basis for investigations of robustness that relax ideal motivational assumptions.
JEL Code B53, P16, P26 相似文献
138.
Most of the literature on transboundaryenvironmental problems treats population ineach country or region as constant, ignoringpopulation mobility. We showed previously thatif there is perfect population mobility betweenregions, and populations are homogeneous, asocially efficient outcome can be supported asa Nash equilibrium of the game of uncoordinatedpolicy setting, even without any internationalenvironmental agreement. In the present paperwe introduce heterogeneous population, and showthat when people differ, a non-cooperativeoutcome is generally inefficient. We alsodemonstrate that for a particular set ofobjective functions for the regionalgovernments, there is an equilibrium of thegame of uncoordinated policy setting that isefficient. Finally, we give an example wherethe decentralized outcome is efficient whenthere is no population mobility, butinefficient when there is population mobility. 相似文献
139.
Michael Mandler 《Economic Theory》2007,32(3):523-549
Can the Pareto criterion guide policymakers who do not know the true model of the economy? If policymakers specify ex ante preferences for agents, then Pareto improvements from a distorted status quo are usually possible, and with more commodities than states, one can implement almost every Pareto optimum. Unlike the standard second welfare theorem, planners cannot dictate allocations: agents must trade. Unfortunately ex ante preferences impose interpersonal comparisons. If policymakers merely aim to maximize some social welfare function then optimal policies form an open set; hence small changes in the environment do not necessitate any policy response. Planners with symmetric information about agents can sometimes intervene without making interpersonal comparisons. 相似文献
140.
Luke Georghiou Author Vitae Michael Keenan Author Vitae 《Technological Forecasting and Social Change》2006,73(7):761-777
The paper addresses the question of what constitutes an appropriate evaluation strategy for national foresight activities in different situations. The variety of rationales for foresight is explored, ranging from a desire to set priorities through to participation-oriented goals and building new networks around common visions and strategies. A generational model of foresight is used to show the evolution of key evaluation issues. The generic motivations for evaluation of accountability, justification and learning are discussed in the context of foresight. Evaluation grounded in the concept of behavioural additionality and the systems failure rationale is shown to be more suited as a rationale for foresight as public policy.Assessing the effects of foresight requires an understanding that it is only one of several influences on public policy. To be effective it needs to be tuned into the strategic behaviour and cycles of policy and economic actors. Cases are presented of evaluation of foresight programmes in the United Kingdom, Germany and Hungary. It is concluded that there is no “one-size-fits-all” evaluation approach and that the method selected is conditioned by motivation, timing and the level of aggregation. Foresight cannot be fully evaluated independently from its context. Foresight is being strengthened by the emergence of rigorous and systematic knowledge to assist learning and improvement. 相似文献