Credit Risk Models – Do They Deliver Their Promises? A Quantitative Assessment

We develop a framework to assess the statistical significance of expected default frequency calculated by credit risk models. This framework is then used to analyse the quality of two commercially available models that have become popular among practitioners: KMV Credit Monitor and RiskCalc from Moody's.
Using a unique database of expected default probability from both vendors, we study both the consistency of the prediction and its timeliness. We introduce the concept of cumulative accuracy profile (CAP) that allows to see in one curve the percentage of defaulting companies captured by the models one year in advance. We also use the Miller's information test to see if the models add information to the S&P rating.
The result of the analysis indicates that these models indeed add relevant information not accounted for by rating alone. Moreover, with respect to rating agencies, the models predict defaults more than ten months in advance on average.
(J.E.L.: C52).     

The use of Web sites as a disclosure platform for corporate performance

Adopting a stockholders' interests' perspective, we explore three related questions: (1) What are the scope and patterns of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (2) What are the determinants of the extent and scope of corporate performance disclosure on the Internet? (3) Is corporate performance disclosure on the Internet relevant for valuation of a firm's earnings? Corporate performance disclosure relates to corporate actions and initiatives that directly affect society and, ultimately, stockholders' wealth. We focus on Web (HTML) disclosure. Our sample comprises Canada's largest publicly-traded firms, many of which are also SEC registrants. The extent and scope of web disclosure by these firms is rated using a coding grid. Regarding the first question, three disclosure patterns emerge: (1) firms providing disclosure about innovation, development and growth also tend to report about customer value as well as maintaining a Web site with good capabilities (business-related disclosure), (2) disclosure about human/intellectual capital is linked to social responsibility disclosure (social-related disclosure) and, (3) the disclosure of financial performance and corporate governance practices are both closely linked together (financial-related disclosure). Regarding the second question, firms apparently take into account variables proxying for information costs and benefits accruing to stockholders when determining the extent of their Web disclosure. Finally, regarding the third question, a firm's web-based performance disclosure appears to affect its earnings valuation multiple, although in a differential manner according to the nature of the information being conveyed.     

Statistical study of foreign exchange rates, empirical evidence of a price change scaling law, and intraday analysis

In this paper we present a statistical analysis of four foreign exchange spot rates against the U.S. Dollar with several million intra-day prices over 3 years. The analysis also includes gold prices and samples of daily foreign exchange prices over 15 years. The mean absolute changes of logarithmic prices are found to follow a scaling law against the time interval on which they are measured. This empirical law holds although the distributions of the price changes strongly differ for different interval sizes.Systematic variations of the volatility are found even during business hours by an intra-day analysis of price changes. Seasonal heteroskedasticity is observed with a period of one day as well as one week as the result of an analogous intra-week analysis; taking this into account is necessary for any future study of intra-day price change distributions and their generating process. The same type of analysis is also made for the bid-ask spreads.     

The Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI) translated into French: internal structure and predictive validity

The Learning Transfer System Inventory (LTSI, Holton et al., 2000 ) considers 16 factors likely to influence the transfer of training to the workplace. The purpose of this study is to translate the Learning Transfer System Inventory into French and to examine (1) the internal structure of the translated instrument; and (2) its predictive validity. The Learning Transfer System Inventory was administered to 328 participants from six companies during the week following the end of a training program. The transfer questionnaire was filled in by 106 of those participants 1–3 months later. The results showed that a principal component analysis reveals a factor structure very similar to the original structure: the 16 original factors are replicated. Second, seven factors display statistically significant correlations with transfer: learner readiness, motivation to transfer, transfer design, opportunity to use, transfer‐performance expectations, performance‐outcomes expectations and performance self‐efficacy. Comparisons with four similar previous studies allow us to draw directions for future research on the instrument.     

Pig in the middle: Overcoming inflexibility unemployment

The growth in unemployment is not inevitable. It is the product of an implicit consensus amongst the most powerful social actors, which instead of implementing rules adapted to the new technological and economic era, fight to preserve the old rules from which they continue to draw profit. In the short run, preserving the inflexible attitudes towards work (the single salaried job with full salary) is such that unemployment is bound to increase and social strife will intensify. A more flexible approach to work supply and demand is illustrated by the game ‘pig in the middle’, which, with an equitable distribution of gains in productivity directly related to the implementation of new technology, does not exclude full employment for all.     

Upward and downward influence tactics in managerial networks: A comparative study of Hong Kong Chinese and Americans

This paper reports an empirical investigation of individual preferences in the use of managerial influence tactics by Hong Kong Chinese and Americans. Subjects in a cross-cultural scenario study were asked to evaluate alternative upward and downward influence tactics in terms of their preferred usage. The findings indicate a main effect for culture and for direction of influence attempt. In addition, direction of influence attempt interacts with subject gender and culture on a tactic-by-tactic basis to reveal differences in influence preferences. Implications of the findings and directions for future studies are discussed.This research was supported by The Chinese University of Hong Kong. The special assistance of Mimi Kam and Ricky Lam in back-translation of the research instruments is appreciated, as are the contributions of Joseph Raelin of Boston College and Harold Welsch of Depaul University in data collection.     

Restructuring the State-Owned Banking Sector: A Comparative Assessment of Approaches in Central Europe

MOCT-MOST: Economic Policy in Transitional Economies -     

Cybersecurity: Stakeholder incentives,externalities, and policy options

Information security breaches are increasingly motivated by fraudulent and criminal motives. Reducing their considerable costs has become a pressing issue. Although cybersecurity has strong public good characteristics, most information security decisions are made by individual stakeholders. Due to the interconnectedness of cyberspace, these decentralized decisions are afflicted with externalities that can result in sub-optimal security levels. Devising effective solutions to this problem is complicated by the global nature of cyberspace, the interdependence of stakeholders, as well as the diversity and heterogeneity of players. The paper develops a framework for studying the co-evolution of the markets for cybercrime and cybersecurity. It examines the incentives of stakeholders to provide for security and their implications for the ICT ecosystem. The findings show that market and non-market relations in the information infrastructure generate many security-enhancing incentives. However, pervasive externalities remain that can only be corrected by voluntary or government-led collective measures.     

The New US Farm Bill: Lessons from a Complete Ideological Turnaround

The New US Farm Bill: Lessons from a Complete Ideological Turnaround The United States recently dopted a new farm law which represents a complete ideological turnaround from the 1996 FAIR Act. This turnaround is paradoxical when compared to the positions taken by the US government in international trade negotiations, particularly at the WTO. A political economy approach can be used to explain this paradox. For various reasons the US budget constraint was not very binding during the policy making process. This gave an opportunity to the supporters of various agricultural interest groups in Congress to forge a coalition in support of a “generous” farm bill which turned out to be politically very difficult to oppose in an election year. As a result it appears that the main economic concern behind the new law has been the instability of prices on international markets, little concern being expressed for the impact on trading partners. Consequently, the credibility of the US government in WTO agricultural trade negotiations will be damaged, but the very broad coalition pushing for liberalisation of agricultural policies in OECD countries will not be significantly weakened. The European Union, therefore, will find it very difficult to resist pressures for concessions on market access and the elimination of export subsidies. La nouvelle loi agricole aux Etats‐Unis: les leçons d'une volte‐face idéologique Les Etats‐Unis viennent d'adopter une nouvelle loi agricole qui marque un changement radical d'orientation par rapport à la loi passée en 1996. Ce revirement idéologique est paradoxal lorsqu'on le rapproche des positions prises par les représentants américains dans les négociations agricoles à l'OMC. Il peut cependant s'expliquer assez facilement si l'on adopte une perspective d‘économie politique. Pour des raisons diverses, la contrainte budgétaire ne s'est pas faite sentir trop fort durant la période d’élaboration de la loi, de sorte que les groupes de pression agricoles n'ont pas eu trop de mal à obtenir au congrès une coalition favorable à une législation “généreuse”à laquelle il eut été difficile de s'opposer en année électorate. En conséquence, le législateur américain a pu manifester son inquiétude vis‐à‐vis de l'instabilité des prix sur les marchés internationaux, et on peut se demander dans quelle mesure cela ne va pas ruiner la crédibilité des positions libérales prises par le gouvernement américain dans les négociations commerciales internationales. Cependant, il convient de noter que la coalition des pays membres qui ant intérêt à la libéralisation des politiques agricoles des pays riches est très large, et ne sera sans doute pas affaiblie de façon significative par cet événement. Il restera done très difficile à l'Union Européenne de résister aux pressions d'autres pays en faveur de l'accès au marché et contre les subventions à l'exportation. Das neue US‐Landwirtschaftsgesetz: Lehren aus einer absoluten ideologischen Kehrtwendung In den Vereinigten Staaten wurde vor kurzem eine neue Agrargesetzgebung verabschiedet, die im Vergleich zum FAIR‐Gesetz aus dem Jahre 1996 eine absolute ideologische Kehrtwendung darstellt. Diese Kehrtwendung steht im Widerspruch zu den Standpunkten, welche die US‐Regierung in Welthandelsfragen vertritt, insbesondere bei der WTO. Dieses Paradoxon kann mit Hilfe eines politökonomischen Ansatzes aufgelöst werden. Zu der Zeit, in der dieses Gesetz entstand, musste die Restriktion des US‐Staatshaushalts aus verschiedenen Gründen nicht strikt eingehalten werden. Dies ermöglichte den Anhängern verschiedener landwirtschaftlicher Interessenverbände, im Kongress eine Koalition zu Gunsten eines “großzügigen” Landwirtschaftsgesetzes zu bilden, welchem gerade in einem Wahljahr politisch nur wenig entgegen zu setzen war. Daher erweckt es den Anschein, dass im Hinblick auf die Wirtschaft die Preisinstabilität auf den internationalen Märkten das zentrale Anliegen des neuen Gesetzes ist, wobei den Auswirkungen auf die Handelspartner nur wenig Beachtung geschenkt wird. Aus diesem Grunde sinkt die Glaubwürdigkeit der US‐Regierung bei den WTO‐Verhandlungen hinsichtlich des Agrarhandels. Die breite Koalition, welche die Liberalisierung der Agrarpolitik in den OECD‐Ländern anstrebt, wird jedoch nicht wesentlich geschwächt. Daher dürfte es der Europäischen Union schwer fallen, dem Druck hinsichtlich der Zugeständnisse beim Marktzugang und der Abschaffung von Exportsubventionen standzuhalten.     

On the Welfare Cost of Economic Fluctuations in Developing Countries*

Macroeconomic fluctuations are much stronger in developing countries than in the United States. Yet, while a large literature debates the welfare cost of economic fluctuations in the United States, it remains an open question how large that cost is in developing countries. Using several models, we provide such a measure. We find that the welfare cost of consumption volatility per se is far from trivial and averages a substantial multiple of the corresponding U.S. estimate. Moreover, in many poor countries, the welfare gain from eliminating volatility may in fact exceed the welfare gain from an additional percentage point of growth forever.