全球价值链的发展改变了什么

全球价值链的发展改变了国际贸易的性质,并对收入的形成、竞争力的衡量和贸易政策的制定产生了重要影响。全球价值链创造了财富,但不同国家的财富增长速度是不同的;全球价值链也改变了竞争力的意义,使得竞争力的衡量更加侧重于企业的跨境生产;全球价值链加深了国家之间的依赖,政策合作更加重要。     

Unemployment and Labor Market Institutions: An Empirical Analysis

The development of the unemployment rate differs substantially between OECD countries. In this paper we investigate to what extent these differences are related to labor market institutions. In our analysis we use data of eighteen OECD countries over the period 1960–1994 and show that the way in which institutions interact is important. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2001, 15(4), pp. 403–418. Department of Economics, CentER, Tilburg University and Institute for Labour Studies (OSA), The Netherlands. © 2001 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E24, J68.     

External Imbalances and Fiscal Fragility in the Euro Area

This paper presents two views of the European sovereign debt crisis. The first is that countries in the South of the Eurozone were fiscally irresponsible and failed to implement pro-competitive supply side policies. The second view holds that the crisis reflects a deep divide between the external surpluses of the North and external deficits of the South. Basic stylized facts cast doubt on the explanation based on the first thesis alone. A relatively simple model shows how poor fundamentals can create a debt problem independently of fiscal responsibility. The empirical analysis of the determinants of government bond yield spreads relative to Germany suggests that both views in fact provide useful insights into the roots of the current sovereign crisis. However, differences in growth and competitiveness and capital flows between North and South have assumed a much more dominant role since the onset of the global crisis.     

Francesco Paolo Cantelli

Francesco Paolo Cantelli made fundamental contributions to the foundations of probability theory and to the clarification of different types of probabilistic convergence. He is remembered through the Borel–Cantelli Lemma, the Glivenko–Cantelli Theorem, and Cantelli's Inequality. He also made seminal contributions to actuarial science.     

Financial market models with Lévy processes and time-varying volatility

Asset management and pricing models require the proper modeling of the return distribution of financial assets. While the return distribution used in the traditional theories of asset pricing and portfolio selection is the normal distribution, numerous studies that have investigated the empirical behavior of asset returns in financial markets throughout the world reject the hypothesis that asset return distributions are normally distribution. Alternative models for describing return distributions have been proposed since the 1960s, with the strongest empirical and theoretical support being provided for the family of stable distributions (with the normal distribution being a special case of this distribution). Since the turn of the century, specific forms of the stable distribution have been proposed and tested that better fit the observed behavior of historical return distributions. More specifically, subclasses of the tempered stable distribution have been proposed. In this paper, we propose one such subclass of the tempered stable distribution which we refer to as the “KR distribution”. We empirically test this distribution as well as two other recently proposed subclasses of the tempered stable distribution: the Carr–Geman–Madan–Yor (CGMY) distribution and the modified tempered stable (MTS) distribution. The advantage of the KR distribution over the other two distributions is that it has more flexible tail parameters. For these three subclasses of the tempered stable distribution, which are infinitely divisible and have exponential moments for some neighborhood of zero, we generate the exponential Lévy market models induced from them. We then construct a new GARCH model with the infinitely divisible distributed innovation and three subclasses of that GARCH model that incorporates three observed properties of asset returns: volatility clustering, fat tails, and skewness. We formulate the algorithm to find the risk-neutral return processes for those GARCH models using the “change of measure” for the tempered stable distributions. To compare the performance of those exponential Lévy models and the GARCH models, we report the results of the parameters estimated for the S&P 500 index and investigate the out-of-sample forecasting performance for those GARCH models for the S&P 500 option prices.     

Joint accounting choices: an examination of firms’ adoption strategies for SFAS No. 106 AND SFAS No. 109

We provide insight into an argument that firms minimize the costs imposed by new accounting standards through their adoption choices. Focusing on two standards with potentially large impacts on both balance sheet and income statement accounts for many firms, we present evidence that firms chose their strategies for SFAS No. 106 (OPEB) and 109 (DTAX) jointly rather than separately. We also provide insight into how firms view recurring versus non-recurring charges, and how they weigh the tradeoff between a large one-time (income decreasing) charge against the smaller, but longer lasting effects of amortization.

Buildings’ Energy Efficiency and the Probability of Mortgage Default: The Dutch Case

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - We investigate the relationship between building energy efficiency and the probability of mortgage default. To this end, we construct a novel...     

Bank loan recovery rates: Measuring and nonparametric density estimation

In this paper we analyse a comprehensive database of 149,378 recovery rates on Italian bank loans. We investigate a new methodology to compute the recovery percentage that we suggest to consider as a mixed random variable. To estimate the probability density function of such a mixture, we propose the mixture of beta kernels estimator and we analyse its performance by Monte Carlo simulations. The application of these proposals to the Bank of Italy’s data shows that, even if we remove the endpoints from the support of the recovery rate, the density function estimate is far from being a beta function.     

An Assessment of the Within-Year Seasonality in the Loan Loss Provisioning Behavior of European Banks

This study aims at assessing whether a significant within-year seasonality exists in the loan loss provisioning behavior of European listed banks observed in the period from 2004 to 2013. Since the accuracy of auditing processes and the level of disclosure requirements in financial reports differ among quarters, during the year, banks may have a leeway to underestimate and postpone the complete provisioning of loan losses in the less regulated and less audited quarters. We hypothesize that those differences are relevant factors which determine non-lower or significantly higher average levels of loan loss provisions in the half-yearly and especially in the annual financial reports than in the interim management statements disclosed in the first and the third quarters of the year. We also investigate the impact of the recent financial crisis and develop a special analysis for the ltalian banks＇ case. The empirical results support our hypotheses, suggesting that, in some cases, a convergence among quarterly levels of auditing processes and disclosure requirements may be needed. Our work contributes to the existing literature by providing additional evidences and considerations on the within-year seasonality in the loan loss provisioning behavior of European listed banks observed in the last decade.