Are Private Vices Public Finance Virtues? An Empirical Investigation

The article investigates the impact of widely accepted private vices (smoking and alcohol and gasoline consumption) on public finance. Introducing the concept of “vice-related deficit,” which aggregates the positive effects on public finance on the revenue side (cash inflows) and the negative effects on the expenditures side (cash outflows), the article looks upon cigarette, alcohol, and gasoline consumption as determinants of vice-related deficit for a number of 68 countries for year 2012. We found that smoking had a negative effect on vice-related budget balance, while alcohol and gasoline consumption had a positive effect. As control variables, we used life expectancy and size of the economy, both having been found with negative effects. The results prove robust to different sample adjustments. We also found that the negative effect of private vices on public finance is stronger for Christian countries than for non-Christian countries. Policy recommendations were made accordingly.     

Sensitivity analysis of the utility maximisation problem with respect to model perturbations

Finance and Stochastics - We consider the expected utility maximisation problem and its response to small changes in the market price of risk in a continuous semimartingale setting. Assuming that...     

The failure of OCA analysis

Conclusion In this paper I have tried to show that OCA theory fails to advance the case for independent fiat currencies. It does so both because of its empirical irrelevance, and because of its internal inconsistencies. Therefore, from the perspective of international monetary economics, there is no theoretical justification for the present monetary organization. Rather other factors, more related to political interests than to sound economics, should be held responsible for it. It is perhaps interesting to consider the mainstream economists’ systematic reaction when they discover there is no scientific justification for a fluctuating fiat currency system. They simply throw away the whole analysis and return to “common sense” propositions. Some of them even go so far as to recognize the merits of a world currency, eventually pegged to gold, but then dishonestly dismiss the case on the basis of “beliefs,” or popular wisdom. All remaining errors are my own.     

Valuing Pharma R&D: The Catch-22 of DCF

There are two principal methods for valuing pharmaceutical R&D projects—discounted cash flow (DCF) and real options valuation (ROV). As typically practiced, DCF valuations tend to be lower than the estimates produced by ROV techniques. Part of the difference, as many have recognized, stems from DCF s limited ability to take account of managers' real option to cut its losses when new information reveals a drug candidate's lack of profit potential. Another reason for the difference, however, is the widespread use in DCF valuations of established success rates that do not distinguish between projects that fail to pass safety or efficacy trials and those that are abandoned for lack of economic viability. If the appropriate success rates are used, the two methods should yield identical project values because they assume the same scenarios. The practical reality, however, is that the two methods deal in a completely different way with the possibility of abandonment for economic reasons. Because ROV accounts for this possibility directly in the model itself, it is much better suited than DCF to this task—indeed, that is the uncertainty that it is designed to deal with. And the fact that 30% of all pharma R&D abandonments are for economic reasons is a strong argument for using ROV rather than DCF to evaluate new drug development.     

The link between personality,aggressive driving,and risky driving outcomes – testing a theoretical model

This study tested a theoretical model of the relationship between the Big Five Personality Factors, aggressive driving and ‘risky driving outcomes’ (accidents, traffic tickets, and license suspension). It also tested the mediation effect of aggressive driving in the relationship between the five factor personality model and risky driving outcomes. Structural equation modeling was used to analyze the 293 participants’ responses. Bivariate correlations showed that aggressive driving was negatively related to emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness and positively related to risky driving outcomes. Agreeableness was negatively related to accidents, tickets, and license suspension. Conscientiousness was negatively related to tickets. The structural model was supported by data in which agreeableness predicted risky driving outcomes. Emotional stability, agreeableness, and conscientiousness predicted aggressive driving, which in turn predicted risky driving outcomes. Aggressive driving was shown to be a mediator in the relationship between agreeableness and risky driving outcomes.     

COOPERATIVE GAMES WITH GENERAL DEVIATION MEASURES

Cooperative games with players using different law‐invariant deviation measures as numerical representations for their attitudes towards risk in investing to a financial market are formulated and studied. As a central result, it is shown that players (investors) form a coalition (cooperative portfolio) that behaves similar to a single player (investor) with a certain deviation measure. An explicit formula for that deviation measure is obtained. An approach to optimal risk sharing among investors is developed, and a “fair” division of the cooperative portfolio expected gain, belonging to the core of a corresponding cooperative game, is suggested.     

Incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism

The probabilistic serial mechanism (Bogomolnaia and Moulin, 2001 [9]) is ordinally efficient but not strategy-proof. We study incentives in the probabilistic serial mechanism for large assignment problems. We establish that for a fixed set of object types and an agent with a given expected utility function, if there are sufficiently many copies of each object type, then reporting ordinal preferences truthfully is a weakly dominant strategy for the agent (regardless of the number of other agents and their preferences). The non-manipulability and the ordinal efficiency of the probabilistic serial mechanism support its implementation instead of random serial dictatorship in large assignment problems.