Is Higher Education Making Students Dumb and Dumber?

This article examines what colleges and universities have to do if they wish to remain relevant. Many students graduating college today lack critical thinking skills. One reason for this is that academic faculty themselves lack some important skills, which include: 1) an appreciation of uncertainty; 2) respect for other disciplines; and 3) an understanding of what true diversity is all about. All of these require humility, which is not valued enough in academe.     

National,regional, and corporate planning methodologies—system dynamics versus simultaneous equation using regression

This paper compares two distinct large scale modeling approaches—Systems Dynamics and Simultaneous-Equation Regression—in terms of methodological features and user friendliness. The circumstances under which one methodology may be more appropriate than the other is explored. Several suggestions are made regarding the practical choice of one approach over the other.     

Residential energy consumption: Models of consumer behavior and their implications for rate design

This article illustrates the use of bounded rationality concepts in policy analysis. Specifically, we discuss reasons why we expect residential energy consumption to deviate from the utility-maximizing level when multiple-tier rate structures are in use. Then we construct a simple, predictive model of boundedly-rational household behavior which can be tested against a conventional utility-maximization model. Our model predicts that households will over-consume when facing increasing tier rates and under-consume when facing decreasing tier rates.We then discuss some of the policy consequences of this behavior. One consequence, given the kind of increasing tier structures that are common in the United States, is that the magnitude of the overconsumption for a household is plausibly 10 percent in the short-run and 50 percent in the long-run. Another consequence, if policy is constrained to increasing tier rates with constant total consumer subsidy, is that the most efficient of these is likely to have a lower first-tier price and quantity than would be the case without bounded rationality. Finally, we note that both the bounded-rationality model and the utility-maximizing model support the use of a two-part tariff rate structure over tiered rate structures for residential consumers.

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Energieverbrauch privater Haushalte: Modelle des Verbraucherverhaltens und ihre Implikationen für die Tarifgestaltung

Zusammenfassung Der vorliegende Beitrag wendet das Konzept eingeschränkter Rationalität auf energiepolitische Zusammenhänge an. Es wird insbesondere erörtert, wie sich der Energieverbrauch privater Haushalte unter der Annahme eingeschränkter Rationalität von dem unterscheidet, wie er sich bei vollständiger Rationalität (Nutzenmaximierung) ergeben würde — vorausgesetzt, es gilt ein mehrfach gestaffelter Tarif. Die Autoren stellen ein einfaches Vorhersagemodell beschränkt rationalen Haushaltsverhaltens vor, das gegen ein konventionelles Nutzen-Maximierungsmodell getestet werden kann. Nach diesem Modell werden Haushalte bei progressiv gestaffelten Tarifen zu Überkonsum und bei degressiv gestaffelten Tarifen zu Unterkonsum tendieren.Anschließend werden einige politische Konsequenzen dieses Verhaltens diskutiert. Bei der Form progressiv gestaffelter Tarife, die in den USA üblich ist, ist eine Konsequenz, daß die Größenordnung des Mehrverbrauchs eines Haushaltes bei kurzfristiger Betrachtung bei 10%, bei längerfristiger Betrachtung bei 50% liegt. Wenn sich die Tarifpolitik auf progressiv gestaffelte Stufentarife mit konstanter Gesamtversorgung beschränkt, ist eine andere Konsequenz, daß die wirkungsvollste Tarifgestaltung bei beschränkter Rationalität einen niedrigeren Eingangstarif und eine niedrige Eingangsmenge fordert. Schließlich wird ausgeführt, daß sowohl das Modell eingeschränkter Rationalität wie auch das Nutzen-Maximierungs-Modell für einen zweistufigen Tarif anstelle eines mehrfach gestaffelten Tarifs spricht.

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Lee S. Friedman is Professor of Public Policy in the Graduate School of Public Policy, University of California at Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA. Karl Hausker is a staff Economist at the U.S. Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee, Dirksen Senate Office Building, Room 358, Washington, D.C. 20510, USA.The authors are grateful to the University of California Energy Research Group for its support of this research. They would like to thank Suzanne Scotchmer, the Editors, and two anonymous referees for their helpful comments.     

The Difference Between Short and Long Run Effects of Police Outlays on Crime: Policing Deters Criminals Initially, But Later They May 'Learn by Doing'

Abstract . In the long run a positive relationship of police expenditurescrime is derived in models which explain criminal behavior In the short run, however, the statistical results point to the possible deterring effect of police expenditures. A theoretical model is constructed to explain the statistical difference of the short and long run effect of police outlays on crime. As police expenditures increase, crime level diminishes. As time elapses, criminals may adjust to the new level of police effort, improve their performance and at the same level of outlays, increase their criminal activities. This phenomenon could be termed “Criminals’Learning by Doing”. It could explain why, over the long run, the level of crime is positively associated with police expenditures. The empirical analysis examines pooled cross sectional time series of 47 states over the period 1970 to 1980—a total of 517 cases.     

安静的美国人

我的女儿今天大学毕业,因此我对2007届毕业班以及他们即将步入的世界展开了深思.我不清楚他们如何称呼这一代人.称他们是"X"世代、"Y"世代、"零"世代还是"我"世代?不过,这段时间我参加过两个毕业典礼,因此我很清楚我女儿的朋友们都在做些什么.     

The pyramid model of school management

Models of organizational management are presented in the literature and in the managerial practices of recent years. They are aimed to improve organizational governance, and to enhance organizational overall efficiency. The common denominator for most, if not all these management models is that they generally focus on a single aspect, or on a very limited number of aspects of the organizational conduct whereas running an organization is a highly complex undertaking, incorporating a large number of functions and processes. School principals tend to adapt out-of-school management process, usually adapting them from the business world. And therefore we can see that the educational system at all and the school system in particular, implement business management methods. This research indicates that school principals are well aware of all the school management processes and procedures. The important contribution of this research, which is based on the unique contribution of the multi-faceted theory, is acknowledging the work of the school principals as a pyramid which its base is composed of essential consensus procedures and its three sided indicate three major school management process. We suggest that this pyramid will be called “The Pyramid Model of School Management”. The various management processes that built this pyramid are based on mutual aims and consensus of the school team to reach these aims. The consensus of the aims is essential, and with out it, the school cannot exist as an affective organization. Choosing when to take a various management action is a feedback based, and situation-based conduct. It is also shown in this research that school principals distinguish between three major management processes which we recommend that they will be called the “pyramid sides” and include: results management, human resources management and general resources management. The three groups are bounded by the “core of management” which we recommend that will be called the “pyramid base”. The pyramid base is connected to each and every phase of the life cycle of the organization, to each process and each result. It includes the school targets and aims which all the school team has to agree upon and there must be an un-doubtful consensus about them.     

Word-of-author advertising and the consumer: An empirical analysis of the quality of product brands noted by authors of popular cultural works

The term word-of-author advertising has been used to refer to the fact that writers of screenplays, television dramas, novels, and other popular cultural products are using brand names in the texts of their works. The study draws upon data from 265Consumer Reports tests conducted from 1950–1979 to determine the quality of the products associated with brands which are frequently used in this way as compared to those which are not. The results indicate that in a majority of the tests, product quality was higher for the frequently used brand names in word-of-author advertising, but a substantial minority of test reports proved to be exceptions to this general finding. Implications of the study findings are drawn for consumer policy, especially as it relates to educational programs.

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Werbung in populären Kunstwerken und der Verbraucher: eine empirische Analyse der Qualität solcher Produktmarken, die in populären Kunstwerken genannt werden

Zusammenfassung Der Begriff Word-of-Author-Werbung bezieht sich auf die Fälle, wo Autoren von Bühnen- und Fernsehstücken, von Romanen und anderen populären Kunstprodukten in ihren Texten bekannte Markennamen verwenden. Der Beitrag berichtet über eine empirische Studie anhand von 265 Tests der amerikanischen ZeitschriftConsumer Reports aus der Zeit von 1950 bis 1979, um Marken, deren Name in dem genannten Sinne häufig verwendet werden, zu vergleichen mit solchen Marken, wo dies nicht der Fall ist.Die Ergebnisse zeigen, daß die Mehrzahl der häufig verwendeten Marken zwar tatsächlich ein höheres Qualitätsurteil erzielte als andere Produkte. Dies gilt aber nicht für alle: Eine beachtliche Minderheit von Marken macht eine Ausnahme.Abschließend werden einige verbraucherpolitische Schlußfolgerungen gezogen und insbesondere gefordert, die untersuchte Art von Konsumgüterwerbung stärker als bisher in der werbekundlichen Verbrauchererziehung zu berücksichtigen.

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Monroe Friedman is Professor of Psychology at Eastern Michigan University, Ypsilanti, MI 48197, USA.     

Economic impact of hypoglycemia among insulin-treated patients with diabetes

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost of hypoglycemic events among insulin-treated patients with diabetes and the potential cost savings to a hypothetical US health plan and employer of reducing hypoglycemic events with a device intervention.

Methods: A cost-calculator model was developed to estimate the direct costs of hypoglycemic events, accounting for diabetes type, age, and event severity. Model inputs were derived from published incidence rates of hypoglycemic events and direct medical costs. Assumed intervention efficacy was based on published studies of an emerging technology which yielded 72.2% (LGS Trial; ACTRN12610000024044) and 31.8% (ASPIRE Trial; NCT01497938) reductions in severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events, respectively. Model outcomes—including the number of severe (requiring medical assistance) and non-severe events, and direct/indirect medical costs (excluding intervention costs)—were evaluated over a 1-year period for a hypothetical health plan and employer perspectives.

Results: In a health plan with 10 million enrollees, patients without the intervention would have experienced 0.09 and 14.60 severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events per patient per year (PPPY), respectively (vs 0.02 severe and 9.96 non-severe events with the intervention). This translated into total direct medical cost savings of $45 million ($177 PPPY) for the health plan. For an employer with 100,000 employees, the intervention would have yielded additional savings of $492 PPPY in indirect costs.

Conclusion: Insulin-treated patients experience hypoglycemic events, which are associated with substantial direct and indirect medical costs. The cost savings of reducing hypoglycemic events need to be weighed against the costs of using diabetes device interventions.     

Sport event attendance as a function of education: evidence from the UK

This article studies the role of education in the decision to attend sporting events. The overall objective is to verify whether more educated individuals are more likely to go to sports events than their less educated counterparts. If education socializes persons to focus on sports, it would then partially offset negative alternatives such as alcohol, drug abuse and unlawful behaviours, creating a positive externality. Sport events consumption is extensive, highlighting the potential economic importance of the sports-education externality. To establish the role of education in sport attendance, this article applies a probabilistic linear regression model to data from the UK. The econometric formulation associates sport event attendance in the left hand side with education in the right hand side, while controlling for the socioeconomic variables that are known to affect a consumer’s decision to go to a sport event: gender, age, income, employment status, children, marital status, and geographical location, among others. These findings add to a somewhat limited literature on both the effect of education on sports attendance and secondarily, on the impact of other socioeconomic variables on attendance.