ILLEGAL INSIDER TRADING: IS IT RAMPANT BEFORE CORPORATE TAKEOVERS?

This paper investigates the role of insider trading as an explanation for the observed pre-announcement price run-ups for takeover targets. We hypothesize that if insider trading is a significant contributor to such price run-ups, then observed run-ups should be smaller for takeovers occurring after May 1986 (the beginning of the “insider trading scandal”) relative to those occurring prior to May 1986. The evidence suggests that insider trading is not, on average, a significant contributor to pre-announcement price run-ups.     

Understanding Firm, Physician and Consumer Choice Behavior in the Pharmaceutical Industry

This paper argues that the pharmaceutical industry represents an exciting opportunity to carry out academic research. The nature of the industry allows researchers to answer new questions, develop new methodologies for answering these questions as well as to apply existing methodology to new data. The paper opens with some industry background, then provides a brief overview of some important research areas and discusses the open questions in each area. Issues of data type and availability are also discussed. This paper is based on a session (with the same title and participants) that was part of the Sixth Invitational Choice Symposium hosted by the University of Colorado and held at Estes Park, Colorado during June 4–8, 2004.     

Scheduling sales force training: Theory and evidence

To have a productive sales force, firms must provide their salespeople with sales training. But from a profit-maximizing perspective, there are also reasons to limit training: training is expensive, it has diminishing returns, and trained salespeople need to be compensated at a higher level since their value in the outside labor market has increased. Due to these reasons, the following inter-related questions are not straightforward to answer: (1) How much training should be provided and how should training be scheduled over time? (2) How should compensation vary with training? (3) Should salespeople be asked to pay for some or all of their training? An analytical model is developed and analyzed using optimal control theory to provide answers to these questions. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is undertaken that broadly corroborates the analytical findings.     

Robust firm pricing with panel data

Firms often have imperfect information about demand for their products. We develop an integrated econometric and theoretical framework to model firm demand assessment and subsequent pricing decisions with limited information. We introduce a panel data discrete choice model whose realistic assumptions about consumer behavior deliver partially identified preferences and thus generate ambiguity in the firm pricing problem. We use the minimax-regret criterion as a decision-making rule for firms facing this ambiguity. We illustrate the framework’s benefits relative to the most common discrete choice analysis approach through simulations and empirical examples with field data.     

Assessing and forecasting technology dynamics in smartphones: a TFDEA approach

Over the last 20 years, the smartphone technologies at the device level have undergone tremendous change. This paper puts forward a framework to characterise, assess and forecast the smartphone technologies at the device level. The study assesses and forecasts the technological advancement observed in smartphones using technology forecasting using data envelopment analysis with an objective to evaluate the technological rate of change in the device. A quarterly data set comprising 31 quarters from 2007 to 2014 was analysed for smartphone releases in a particular price range. For the validation purpose, the analysis was designed to set the point of forecasting somewhere in 2012 using the data set between 2007 and 2012, so as to forecast the technologies thereon till 2014. The results indicate that the rate of technological change in smartphones is accelerating.     

International Price Discovery for Emerging Market Stocks: Evidence from Indian GDRs

Given the rapid increase of the number of emerging market stocks being dually listed abroad, it is important to understand the role of the foreign markets in the price discovery process. We examine this issue by studying the role of the London Global Depositary Receipts (GDR) market for Indian stocks. We find that the London and the Mumbai prices are cointegrated despite arbitrage restrictions imposed by Indian government regulations. Each market contributes almost equally to price discovery, a result in contrast to the small contribution of offshore markets to price discovery of stocks based in developed economies. The GDR market's contribution to price discovery increases with the foreign ownership of the firm and GDR issue size. We also find evidence of significant volatility spillovers from the London market to the Indian market. The overall results suggest that offshore trading in emerging market stocks play a beneficial role by aiding domestic price discovery.     

The effects of MFA quota elimination on Indian fibre markets

This article examines the effects of multi-fibre arrangement (MFA) quota elimination on Indian fibre market. The partial equilibrium Indian fibre model was developed using a theoretically consistent framework and incorporated regional supply response, substitutability between cotton and man-made fibres, and appropriate linkage between cotton and textile sectors. Baseline projections were developed for supply, demand and prices of cotton, man-made fibres and textiles under a set of exogenous assumptions. The effects of MFA textile quota eliminations were introduced into the model by conducting three scenarios, i.e. increasing textile exports by 10, 20 and 30% from the baseline level. The results suggest that on an average, cotton imports rise by 4–8% annually, while the man-made fibre exports from India decline with the opening of textile markets in the developed countries. The higher domestic cotton prices encourage acreage expansion in cotton in all the three regions in India, but not enough to meet rising mill demand under the scenarios of higher textile exports. The rise in cotton imports from India has little effect on world cotton prices.     

Is Peasantry Dead? Neoliberal Reforms,the State and Agrarian Change in Bangladesh

This paper focuses on three decades of agrarian reform policies and the resulting peculiarity of the development trajectory in Bangladesh. I interrogate the ways in which the reforms have led to a paradoxical situation consisting of partial protelarianization in attempting to promote a market‐based economy. I contend that the particular positioning of the state is central to understanding this dialectic between proletarianization and the persistence of small peasants amid a huge rush towards the formation of a capitalist market economy. I conclude that the partial nature of agrarian transformation that we now experience in Bangladesh may not be resolved in favour of a complete proletarianization of small peasants in the foreseeable future.