Longevity Risk Management in Singapore's National Pension System

Although annuities are a theoretically appealing way to manage longevity risk, in the real world relatively few consumers purchase them at retirement. To counteract the possibility of retirees outliving their assets, Singapore's Central Provident Fund, a national defined contribution pension scheme, has recently mandated annuitization of workers’ retirement assets. More significantly, the government has entered the insurance market as a public‐sector provider for such annuities. This article evaluates the money's worth of life annuities and discusses the impact of the government mandate and its role as an annuity provider on the insurance market.     

How does financial performance affect marketing? Studying the marketing-finance relationship from a dynamic perspective

In this article, the authors provide a dynamic framework for understanding the relationship between marketing and financial performance. They suggest that firms market to financial markets as well as to consumption markets and that some mixture provides superior long-term performance. The authors discuss the potential pitfalls of overemphasizing one market to the detriment of another and then provide a theoretical model of the factors that influence the extent of marketing to financial markets. This is followed by a discussion of implications for theory, practice, and future research. Mitchell J. Lovett (mitchell.lovett@duke.edu) is a Ph.D. student in the Fuqua School of Business at Duke University. His current research interests include consumer and seller learning in dynamic environments, competitive and dynamic marketing strategies, and the role of marketing in innovation. Jason B. MacDonald (jmacdona@boisestate.edu) is an associate professor of marketing in the College of Business and Economics at Boise State University. His current research interests include the role of marketing in investor relations and Internet marketing strategy.     

Local Economic Performance and Election Outcomes

This paper uses a logit model to test whether voters will alter their support for incumbents in state level elections, specifically gubernatorial and state house and senate elections, when local (i.e., county) economic conditions are observed. The results signify that voters do hold the incumbent party responsible for economic conditions. Furthermore, voters tend to place more emphasis on unemployment levels than on real personal income indicating that incumbent politicians might want to engage in policies that put people to work rather than on policies that raise income. The results also suggest that voters did not hold their state house and senate representative as responsible for local economic conditions as they did the governor.     

A note on the Wang and Wang measure of the quality of the compass rose

H. Wang and C. Wang [Visibility of the compass rose in financial asset returns: A quantitative study, J. Bank. Financ. 26 (2002), 1099–1111] derive a measure of the visibility of the radial patterns that appear in a plot of current and past returns, which are more commonly known as the compass rose. In theory, this measure should be positively related to the tick/volatility ratio. In practice however, we find that this relationship does not hold for higher tick/volatility ratios that are common to stock market data. Thus, the use of this measure is limited in real world applications. We propose a correction factor that improves the behaviour of the quality measure over higher tick/volatility ratios, however, further research is required to fully identify and correct the problem.     

Conflicting threat perceptions at a rural agricultural fair

Tourism is a major industry in Pennsylvania, second only to agriculture. This paper examines their nexus, the rural agricultural fair. The Bloomsburg Fair provides an opportunity to explore risk management for tourism. This event, now in its 150th year, inundates a town of 12,000 with 500,000+ visitors in an 8-day period. Employing a survey of fairgoer behavior, this study explored contrasts between fairgoer and management concerns over a variety of natural and human-induced threats. It also investigated the challenges present in maintaining a quality recreational experience while simultaneously providing adequate fairgoer protection. The findings indicate that fairgoers place greater emphasis on high-probability, low-consequence events while the fair emergency management plan is largely focused on low-probability, high-consequence events such as terrorism. This disconnect suggests that a failure to understand the concerns of the fairgoer or to recognize other threats facing a destination while focusing heavily on low-probability events may create a recreation environment that is relatively less safe overall.     

A note concerning a credit rule for monetary policy

A technique introduced by Friedman is used to analyze the ability of the Federal Reserve to control the money supply. We find that the necessary conditions for control are so restrictive that a constant growth rate for the money stock may not be achievable. We suggest, therefore, a steady growth rate for Federal Reserve Credit.     

Velocity variance comparisons under alternative policy regimes

Conclusion This paper has shown that it is dangerous to make recommendations, concerning which money supply to control, based on a comparison of velocity variances which occurred during one historical policy regime. The policy recommendation could be sensitive to what the historical policy regime was, and in a wide variety of circumstances the policy recommendation could be wrong.An additional point should be made. Since interest rates were excluded from the model, it has not been analyzed for whether mistaken policy advice could be drawn from a velocity variance comparison on data observed during a regime of targeting short-term interest rates rather thanM1 orM2 (such as the pre-1970 period). Cagan [1982], Fellner [1982], and Kopcke [1983], for instance, make such comparisons. Given the results of this paper, however, it seems very likely that such an analysis would reinforce the strong cautionary point of this paper. Furthermore, if the historical regime did not involve an exclusive focus on one tool, but rather was a hybrid regime involving an ill-defined mixture of concern withM1,M2, and a short-term interest rate, then the cautionary point is further reinforced.Given the essentially negative result of this paper, that one cannot make a regime choice based on a simple velocity variance comparison, how can one choose the appropriate money supply to control? It would seem that there is no substitute for the use of a complete structural empirical model.     

Do I have to go shopping again? A theory of choice with movement costs

In this model, the standard theory of the one-person household is extended into space and time. The theory is extended into space by imposition of a real trip cost on the act of purchase, separate from the money price of commodities. It is extended into time by imposition of a real cost of storage (represented by “deterioration”) on the stocks of goods held in the household between shopping trips. The necessity for storage permits the theory to include an endogenous choice of capacity to store as well as choices among consumption, leisure, and shopping trip frequency. By use of duality theory, the comparative static effects of price, wage, and trip costs are examined. Production and transformation within the household are integrated into the model and shown to be covered by the dual approach.