The rationality and efficacy of decisions under uncertainty and the value of an experiment

Summary A decision maker faces a known prior distribution over payoff relevant states. We compare the expected utility of this individual under two scenarios. In the first, the decision maker makes a choice without further information. In the second, the decision maker has access to an experiment before choosing an action. However, the decision maker does not know the true joint distribution over states and messages. The value of the experiment as measured by the difference in the two utility levels can be negative as well as positive. We give a condition which is necessary and sufficient for the experiment to be valuable in our sense, for any decision problem.An earlier version of this paper was circulated under the title Noisy Bayes Updating and the Value of Information. We have gained from the comments of Stephen Coate, John Geanakoplos, Larry Samuelson, Timothy Van Zandt and seminar participants at Harvard Business School, Princeton, Boston University, the international conference on game theory at Stony Brook 1992 and the Winter meeting of the Econometric Society at Anaheim 1993. The first author received support for this project from NSF grant #SES-9308515 and a University of Pennsylvania Research Foundation Grant.     

Scarcity Message Effects on Consumption Behavior: Limited Edition Product Considerations

Recently, many luxury brands have begun to launch limited edition (LE) products. When this happens, advertisers implement two typical types of scarcity messages for LE products: limited‐time scarcity (LTS) versus limited‐quantity scarcity (LQS) messages (Cialdini, 2008). Prior research offered empirical evidence that these scarcity messages make consumers feel that LE products are more special, unique, and valuable, and thus, positively influence their evaluation of the product (Aggarwal, Jun, & Huh, 2011). The current study examined the differential effects of LTS and LQS messages on different types of LE products by focusing on consumers’ need for uniqueness.     

Organisational change, outsourcing and the impact on management accounting

New empirical evidence is presented on organisational change, outsourcing and the impact on management accounting in three types of organisations: private sector companies, the National Health Service and Local Authorities. Spearman rank correlations are used to examine three propositions: that (i) change in organisational form exists and may be related to an increased use of outsourcing or subcontracting; (ii) outsourcing is expected to improve organisational flexibility and/or the service of an activity, to lead to cost savings, or to allow the organisation to focus more clearly on its core business; and (iii) outsourcing promotes change in management accounting. Statistical support is found for each of our three propositions. This is further supported by reference to three illustrative case studies. Overall, we conclude that organisational change, as effected by the use of outsourcing, is related to specific changes in the organisations' management accounting systems.     

Intercultural Competency Development in Conjunction With a Short Term Study Away Experience： Changes in Undergraduate Students

The purpose of this research was to examine whether undergraduate business students who participated in a short term study abroad course and intercultural competence building coursework demonstrated a significant increase in intercultural competence over those who only enrolled in the study abroad course. The 20 participants attended a small liberal arts College in Midwestern United States. The Intercultural Development Inventory （IDI） was administered to the participating students before and after their study away experience. The IDI （v.3） is based on the theoretical framework of the Developmental Model of Intercultural Sensitivity （DMIS） introduced by Milton Bennett. The DMIS is based on the assumption that intercultural competence can be strengthen through the development of intercultural knowledge and experience with people from other cultures. The IDI has been used in numerous scholarly studies and has demonstrated valid and reliable results. It is a self-administered 50-item series of statements in which participants are asked to rate the level of their agreement with statements that address their relationship to and evaluation of cultural difference. In the model, people progress in a linear developmental fashion through six stages： defense, denial, polarization, minimization, acceptance, and adaptation. This study was designed to determine if students who studied away and completed intercultural coursework （prior intercultural knowledge and an intercultural experience） would increase their level of intercultural competency more than those students who just studied away （intercultural experience only） as measured by the change in their IDI scores. The results of this small sample show that intercultural coursework in conjunction with a short term study away experience can have a positive impact on individual intercultural development.     

What moves housing markets: A variance decomposition of the rent–price ratio

We apply the dynamic Gordon growth model to the housing market in 23 US metropolitan areas, the four Census regions, and the nation from 1975 to 2007. The model allows the rent–price ratio at each date to be split into the expected present discounted values of rent growth, real interest rates, and a housing premium over real rates. We show that housing premia are variable and forecastable and account for a significant fraction of rent–price ratio volatility at the national and local levels, and that covariances among the three components damp fluctuations in rent–price ratios. Thus, explanations of house-price dynamics that focus only on interest rate movements and ignore these covariances can be misleading. These results are similar to those found for stocks and bonds.     

The Living Wage,Economic Efficiency,and Socio-Economic Wellbeing in a Competitive Market Economy

Conventional economic wisdom views a Living Wage as costly in term of economic efficiency and competitiveness. I argue, based on x-efficiency theory, that higher wages need not cause any economic harm and can, on the contrary, generate higher levels of material wellbeing. Higher wages can be expected to induce x-efficiency and technological change cost offsets. In this context, an effective living wage, one that is above some subsistence minimum, can have a net efficiency effect on the economy. Therefore, a living wage greater than the wage rate generated by the free market cannot be predicted to generate economic harm. With the institutional parameters in place to realize a living wage, the economic pie can be expected to grow to accommodate the living wage.     

Synchronising retail and space: using urban squares for competitive place differentiation

This essay probes the critical dimensions of consumer‐culture theory (CCT) by investigating managerial tendencies toward integrating consumers from above or even imposing culture from on high, rather than viewing consumer culture as something that arises from the consumers themselves. Illustrations based on the use of background music or Muzak support concerns that culture is degraded by marketers as a means of social control. Attempts of an organization such as Pipedown to resist background music present an impression of futility in the face of hegemony. Hence we draw attention to the apparently predominant commercial thrust toward and mass susceptibility to manipulation, as born out by the ubiquity of background music and by the apparent lack of meaningful counter‐play by consumers. Noting the lacunae in our critical understanding of consumption, markets, and culture from the CCT perspective, we consider the ideological consequences.     

The impact of technology on the Arab communication style and culture: Implications for marketing

‘Culture is communication and communication is culture,’ as Hall (1976, Beyond culture, Garden City, NY: Anchor Books, Doubleday) reminds us. The main purpose of this paper was to assess the impact of technology on the Arab communication style. The Internet is a unique environment with particular characteristics that might cause shifts in people's communication styles. The setting/context of online communication is very different from face-to-face communication and thus assumptions about communication styles need to be reexamined. The data analysis indicates that significant changes to the Arab culture are taking place and these changes are likely to have an impact on marketing practices in the region.     

Maximizing Profits for a Multi-Category Catalog Retailer

It is a common trend in the retail industry for catalog retailers to mail multiple catalogs, each promoting different product categories. The existing catalog mailing models do not address the issue of optimizing multi-category catalog mailing. We address this research gap by introducing a model that integrates the when and what components of a customer's purchase decision into the how much component (number of catalogs) of a firm's cross-selling strategy. In addition to comparing the impact of category-specific versus full product catalogs in generating sales in a specific category, the study also finds relative impacts of various category-specific catalogs. We jointly estimate the probability of purchase and purchase amounts in multiple product categories by using multivariate proportional hazard model (MVPHM) and a regression based purchase amount model in a Hierarchical Bayesian framework. The model accounts for unobserved heterogeneity, and uses a control function (CF) approach to account for endogeneity in catalog mailing. The results from the Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization suggest that the catalog mailing policy as per the proposed model would be able to generate 38.4 percent more customer lifetime value (CLV) from a sample of 10 percent of the households as compared to the current catalog mailing policy of the retailer by reallocation of the catalogs across customers and mailing periods based on their propensity to buy.