Characteristics and Behaviour of Tourists Who Use Trails

This article documents the popularity of five types of trail-based recreation relative to other forms of recreation that tourists frequently participate in on their trips; identifies these trail users’ cross-participation in other outdoor recreation activities; and profiles the travel behaviour, media habits, trip planning behaviour, and demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of day hikers and snowmobilers as two particularly large trail user segments. Findings are based on data from a household telephone survey conducted in Michigan, surrounding states, and Ontario, Canada. Hiking/backpacking was found to be the most popular natural resource-based recreation activity that respondents participated in on pleasure trips taken during the past 12 months; other forms of trail-based recreation were significantly less popular; mountain bikers participated in nature-oriented recreation activities in Michigan at levels that were similar to those of hikers/backpackers; and snowmobiling appeared to be the focus of most pleasure trips on which this activity occurred, in contrast to day hiking, which appeared to be more of an ancillary pursuit.     

Some Teaching Techniques for High School Economics

In this article two high school economics teachers describe several teaching techniques that have proven successful in their school. The use of a team approach is briefly explained, and the importance of student motivation is stressed. Among the methods included are skits, plays, the use of video tapes, simulations and games, and the analysis of important economic problems. The means by which the instructors are evaluating their course are set forth, with evidence that the experience helps to destroy commonly held myths about economics and greatly improves student understanding of basic principles.     

Does Aid Cause Trade? Evidence from an Asymmetric Gravity Model

Anderson and vanWincoop developed what has become the standard framework for framing and interpreting empirical work using the gravity model. Their framework relies heavily on an assumption of symmetry among countries. For issues related to North‐South trade, this assumption is problematic. In this paper, we develop an asymmetric extension of the Anderson–vanWincoop framework appropriate to the analysis of North‐South trade, where Northern countries produce differentiated goods and Southern countries homogenous ones. In addition, we use an appropriately extended version of Baier and Bergtrand and Taylor linear expansion – thus permitting its estimation using (good old) OLS. The result is an empirical model that (i) is better suited to the analysis of North‐South trade, (ii) is easy to estimate and compute comparative statics, not requiring a customised NLS routine and, given the way the South is included, (iii) provides a simple explanation of zero trade flows between some country pairs, a fact still not fully explained in the literature. As an illustration of its use, we examine the empirical link between foreign aid and trade.     

Investor Overreaction to Earnings Surprises and Post‐Earnings‐Announcement Reversals

Prior literature suggests that the market underreacts to the positive correlation in a typical firm's seasonal earnings changes, which leads to a post‐earnings‐announcement drift (PEAD) in prices. We examine the market reaction for a distinct set of firms whose seasonal earnings changes are uncorrelated and show that the market incorrectly assumes that the earnings changes of these firms are positively correlated. We also document that positive (negative) seasonal earnings changes in the current quarter are associated with negative (positive) abnormal returns in the next quarter. Thus, we observe a reversal of abnormal returns, consistent with a systematic overreaction to earnings, rather than the previously documented PEAD. Additional analysis indicates that financial analysts similarly overestimate the autocorrelation of these firms, although to a lesser extent. We also find that the magnitude of overestimation and the subsequent price reversal are inversely related to the richness of the information environment. Our results challenge the notion that investors recognize but consistently underestimate earnings correlation and provide a new perspective on the inability of prices to fully reflect the implications of current earnings for future earnings. That is, we show that investors predictably overestimate correlation when it is lacking, but underestimate it when it is present.     

An alternative interpretation of the discontinuity in earnings distributions

We show that the asymmetric effects of income taxes and special items for profit and loss firms contribute to a discontinuity at zero in the distribution of earnings. Income taxes draw profit observations towards zero while negative special items pull loss observations away from zero. These earnings components are thus expected to contribute to a discontinuity even in the absence of discretion. We show our results are not an artifact of deflation and that other common components of earnings do not have similar effects on the earnings distribution around zero.

Measuring caring--the next frontier in understanding workforce performance and patient outcomes

Caring is not generally considered in structured and scientific analysis of situations. But this may be a mistake. Caring likely has a return on investment that surpasses all other technology, pharmacotherapy, or system that has been developed to date for health care. As the puzzle of caring as an intervention of healing continues to come together, the outcomes of care for self and others will become clear. It is apparent by the number of studies generated by just one group, the Caring International Research Collaborative, there is a shared belief caring is healing and has a potential for return on investment that has yet to be realized.     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.     

An Empirical Analysis of the Demand for Imports in Three CARICOM Member Countries: An Application of the Bounds Test for Cointegration

This paper provides fresh estimates of income and price elasticities of import demand in Guyana, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago using a bounds test for cointegration. In addition, the paper also provides estimates of the consumption, investment, and exports elasticities of import demand. These latter elasticities were all found to be positive and statistically significant with values ranging from 0.16 to 0.55 in the long-run.     

Does a Crisis Matter? Forest Policy Responses to the Mountain Pine Beetle Epidemic in British Columbia

“[a]n epidemic of catastrophic proportions”?Larry Pedersen, Chief Forester in 2003, in describing the impact of the outbreak. What factors are responsible for the introduction of new policies (especially those involving substantive change) is a phenomenon that is still poorly understood. Researchers have identified policy windows where a confluence of events, such as a change in government, the emergence of a new issue, and ongoing policy processes, come together to create the opportunity for new policy development. Natural disasters can open such policy windows by drawing attention to an issue and mobilizing political will. Yet at the same time, even if policy windows do open, they may not result in effective policy development. The institutional setting in which such policies are developed also plays a key role. In the case of the Canadian forest sector, the combination of public resources and private capital make policy development especially challenging. Although the scale of the Mountain Pine Beetle epidemic in British Columbia is unprecedented, and will change the nature of the forest resource (and by extension the industry and communities that rely upon it), the policy response has been limited to short‐term measures. Although some policy reform was introduced, policy makers have yet to address the question of whether more fundamental changes are required in order to address the full consequences of the epidemic. La détermination des facteurs responsables de l’introduction de nouvelles politiques (particulièrement celles qui comportent des changements substantiels) demeurent un phénomène mal compris. Des chercheurs ont déterminé des fenêtres d’opportunité politique où divers événements, tels qu’un changement de gouvernement, l’émergence d’une nouvelle préoccupation et des processus politiques continus, convergent pour créer l’occasion d’élaborer de nouvelles politiques. Les catastrophes naturelles peuvent créer ces fenêtres d’opportunité politique en attirant l’attention sur une préoccupation et en mobilisant la volonté politique. Pourtant, même si des fenêtres d’opportunité politique s’ouvrent, elles peuvent ne pas se solder par l’élaboration de politiques efficaces. Le cadre institutionnel dans lequel ces politiques sont élaborées joue aussi un rôle important. Dans le cas du secteur forestier canadien, la combinaison de ressources publiques et de capitaux privés rend l’élaboration de politiques particulièrement délicate. Bien que l’étendue de l’épidémie de dendroctone du pin ponderosa en Colombie‐Britannique soit sans précédent et modifiera la nature de la ressource forestière (et par extension, l’industrie et les collectivités qui en dépendent), la réaction politique s’est limitée à des mesures à court terme. Malgré une certaine réforme des politiques, les décideurs doivent s’interroger sur la nécessité d’apporter ou non des changements fondamentaux supplémentaires pour surmonter les conséquences de l’épidémie.