对铁路春运票价上浮的思考

通过对铁路、公路、航空等交通工具的春运票价分析,指出票价差给铁路客运带来的影响,以及旅客对铁路运输的依赖,提出正确把握社会舆论导向、制定合理的铁路票价、利用价格杠杆合理分流等,以化解旅客矛盾,缓解铁路春运压力。     

“一带一路”背景下广西对东盟投资的法律风险及应对策略研究

广西在国家"一带一路"愿景文件中的定位是形成21世纪"海上丝绸之路"和"丝绸之路经济带"有机衔接的重要门户。广西应积极参与"一带一路"战略,既要把握机遇,又要迎接挑战,努力开拓"一带一路"战略的国家市场,提升外贸对广西经济发展的贡献力,为"一带一路"战略的成功实施贡献自己的力量。对东盟一些国家的法律了解不足或一些其他原因将有可能给投资国带来很多不可预见的法律风险,并因此造成一定的经济损失,且直接影响投资国的经济安全。因此,以广西对东盟投资为例,研究对东盟投资可能产生的主要法律风险及成因,从而提出解决问题的对策,具有重要的现实意义。     

基于冀中地区红色资源的思考

红色旅游因集娱乐与教育于一体而受到在校大学生的追捧,但在实际生活中大学生红色旅游市场的发展却不尽人意。本文从大学生旅游行为的一般规律出发,为冀中地区红色景区经济发展与当地大学生德育教育双赢模式的研究提出了一些借鉴和参考。     

Applicability of the Classic WACC Concept in Practice

ABSTRACT

A large percentage of companies use the discounted cash flow (DCF) approach as the primary technique for investment/project evaluation and the capital budgeting process. This approach requires forecasting the detailed cash flow of the project under evaluation and then discounting the resulting cash flow to the present value (Net Present Value–NPV) using an appropriate discount rate.

The discount rate commonly used represents the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) of the firm. There is no scarcity of literature on this subject as the concept has been around for the last 50 years or so. Although most analysts believe the concept is simple and very well known, the irony is that its misinterpretation and misuse prevails. There are many versions of the WACC equation and each is specific to a certain cash flow. Therefore, using the classic WACC relationship in all cases may result in the calculation of an overly optimistic NPV. Depending on the cash flow pattern, the investment may show a positive NPV at the classic WACC but it will actually be losing equity.

This paper highlights (a) pitfalls and misuses of the WACC, (b) interdependence between types of cash flow and WACC, (c) assumptions behind the WACC and whether these assumptions are realistic, and (d) alternative approaches to arrive at the correct net present value (NPV). Company CEOs, management, analysts, and other investors using the WACC for investment decisions need to be fully aware of its pitfalls and misuses.

RESUMEN. Un gran porcentaje de empresas usan el enfoque del flujo de caja descontado (DCF–discounted cash flow), como la técnica principal para evaluar las inversiones/proyectos y el proceso de elaboración del presupuesto de capital. Este enfoque exige la proyección detallada del flujo de caja del proyecto bajo análisis y, a continuación, el redescuento del flujo de caja resultante al valor actual-Valor Actual Neto (Net Present Value–NPV) utilizando una tasa de redescuento apropiada.

La tasa de descuento comúnmente utilizada representa el Costo de Capital Medio Ponderado (Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC) de la empresa. No falta literatura a este respecto, ya que el concepto ha existido ya alrededor de 50 años. Aunque la mayoría de los analistas creen que el mismo es simple y muy conocido, irónicamente, lo que prevalece es su mala interpretación y uso equivocado. Existen muchas versiones sobre la ecuación WACC, y cada una se identifica con un flujo de caja específico. Consecuentemente, el uso de la relación WACC clásica puede resultar, en todos los casos, en un cálculo de NPV exageradamente optimista. Dependiendo del tipo de flujo de caja, la inversión puede mostrar un NPV positivo con un WACC clásico, cuando en realidad estará perdiendo patrimonio.

Este documento coloca en destaque (a) escollos y mal uso del WACC, (b) interdependencia entre el tipo de flujo de caja y el WACC, (c) presunciones por detrás del WACC, y si ellas son realistas, y (d) mostrar enfoques alternativos para llegar al valor actual neto correcto (NPV). El CEO de la empresa, su gerencia, analistas y otros inversores usarán el WACC para tomar decisiones inherentes a la inversión.

RESUMO. Uma grande porcentagem das empresas usa a abordagem do fluxo de caixa descontado (DCF) como técnica básica de avaliação de investimentos/projetos e do processo de orçamentação de capital. Essa abordagem requer que se preveja o fluxo de caixa detalhado do projeto sob avaliação e, depois, desconte o fluxo de caixa resultante para obter o valor presente líquido (NPV) usando uma taxa de desconto apropriada.

A taxa de desconto geralmente usada representa o Custo de Capital Médio Ponderado (WACC–Weighted Average Cost of Capital) da empresa. A literatura sobre este tema é abundante, já que o conceito existe há uns 50 anos. Embora a maioria dos analistas considere o conceito simples e bem conhecido, o fato é que erros de interpretação e utilização predominam. Existem muitas vers$oTes da equação do WACC, cada uma específica a certo fluxo de caixa. Portanto, aplicar a relação WACC clássica a todos os casos pode resultar em cálculos de NPVs otimistas demais. Dependendo do padrão de fluxo de caixa, o investimento pode exibir um NPV positivo no WACC clássico, quando na verdade estará perdendo patrimônio.

Este artigo realça (a) as armadilhas e usos equivocados do WACC, (b) as interdependências entre tipo de fluxo de caixa e WACC, (c) pressupostos por trás do WACC e se esses pressupostos são realistas, e (d) mostra abordagens alternativas para se chegar ao valor presente líquido (NPV) correto. Visa os CEOs das empresas, a gerência, os analistas e utros investidores que usam o WACC nas decisões de investimentos.     

特大冰冻干扰对大明山自然保护区云贵山茉莉群落的影响

以广西大明山国家级自然保护区云贵山茉莉群落为对象,研究冰冻干扰对其影响。结果表明：云贵山茉莉建群种受损严重,其他共优势种受损较轻;云贵山茉莉受损类型划分为5种,以倒伏和压弯为主,分别占27.40%和26.71%,其次为断梢和断干,分别占21.23%和17.81%,翻蔸占6.85%;云贵山茉莉不同胸径的林木受损程度不同,胸径1.0～5.0 cm的林木压弯最多,胸径为5.1～10.0 cm的林木断干和断梢类型最多,胸径为15 cm以上的林木倒伏、翻蔸类型最多,胸径为10.1～15.0 cm的林木受损最低;云贵山茉莉萌芽更新能力强,其中以断梢类型的林木恢复能力最强,压弯和倒伏的次之,断干类型的较差,翻蔸类型最差。     

An inquiry into eastern leadership orientation of working adults in Afghanistan

This study analyzes the leadership tendencies of respondents from Afghanistan and compares them with their American counterparts. The responses of 219 Afghans are compared with 87 respondents from the United States, showing similarities of leadership orientation between the two cultures. Afghans have higher scores on the relationship orientation, and age seems to be a factor as well. Suggestions and implications are explored for local managers working with foreigners, multinational managers, political leaders, and United Nations officials working in Afghanistan toward reconstruction and peaceful development of the country.     

The quest for logia psyche in business leadership: An empirical study of cognitive moral development in construction industry dyads

This research study examines the ageless human debate of the body versus the soul, testing leadership in the industry of building constructors. Based on Kohlbergian theory of cognitive moral development, the multidisciplinary literature review advances the proposition that moral development proceeds in waves of egoism, leading to altruism that is couched in power—“the apple of the eye.” The results from respondents of the Iowa Architects Institute of America (n = 93) indicated that, despite their higher education and aesthetic interests, the sample of architects ranked low on moral maturity level compared to the average of the Defining Issues Test data bank as a whole. Principled scores were 36.4 for architects and 39.1 for the data bank. This research also compared the moral maturity of intra‐industry groups in marketing dyads consisting of architects, contractors, and suppliers using analysis of variance. Again, it was expected that architects with higher education and aesthetic interests would rank highest. Findings of post hoc comparisons revealed no significant difference in moral maturity level between architects and contractors engrossed in the same power paradigm (p = 1.00), yet a significant difference existed between architects and suppliers (p = 0.024). This implication is consistent with the teleological ethical pattern that is prevalent in research studies of salespeople.     

Do accurate earnings forecasts facilitate superior investment recommendations?

We find that analysts who issue more accurate earnings forecasts also issue more profitable stock recommendations. The average factor-adjusted return associated with the recommendations of analysts in the highest accuracy quintile exceeds the corresponding return for analysts in the lowest accuracy quintile by 1.27% per month. Our findings provide indirect empirical support for valuation models in the accounting and finance literatures (e.g., Ohlson, 1995) that emphasize the role of future earnings in predicting stock price movements. Our results also suggest that imperfectly efficient markets reward information gatherers, such as security analysts, for their costly activities in generating superior earnings forecasts.     

Business Ethics Perceptions of Public and Private Sector Iranians

Ethical maturity is a great concern to all educators, firms, and investors across the globe. This research surveyed 448 citizens, managers and employees in Iran to measure their Personal Business Ethics Scores (PBES) to see if age, education, management experience, and government work experience make a difference in making more ethical decisions. This study contributes to the theory of moral development across the Iranian culture as it is the first known study using this method. The results suggest that education and more years of government work experience make a difference in the moral maturity of respondents. This study confirms that the ethical maturity of respondents is enhanced either through the authoritarian regime or socialization with Islamic values. Kohlberg’s moral development theory regarding ethical maturity is partially supported since those with more years of experience in government and more formal education have higher business ethics scores. Implications are discussed.     

物流企业信息化整合与物流企业绩效关系的实证研究

通过实证研究,使用结构方程模型,找到了物流企业内部各种信息系统的整合、物流企业与外部供应链上的其他节点企业之间的信息系统整合对于该企业的运作绩效、市场绩效、财务绩效的影响.