Does earnings acceleration convey information?

Valuation theory, investment managers, financial analysts, and textbooks advocating horizontal financial statement analysis suggest that the change in earnings growth (earnings acceleration) conveys value relevant information. We test this assertion using a large sample of U.S. firms. Results from cross-sectional short-window (around earnings announcements) and long-window (annual) returns-earnings regressions reveal a strong association between contemporaneous returns and earnings acceleration after controlling for earnings levels and changes. Moreover, earnings acceleration is useful in predicting future earnings, and financial analysts appear to use the information in earnings acceleration in addition to earnings levels and changes in revising their forecasts. Furthermore, earnings acceleration conveys information incremental to that provided by changes in analysts’ forecasts of long-term earnings growth. This study extends the empirical returns-earnings model that includes only earnings levels and changes and shows that more useful information can be extracted from reported earnings numbers than has been previously documented.     

Debt and managerial rents in a real-options model of the firm

We present a theory of capital investment and debt and equity financing in a real-options model of a public corporation. The theory assumes that managers maximize the present value of their future compensation (managerial rents), subject to constraints imposed by outside shareholders’ property rights to the firm's assets. Absent bankruptcy costs, managers follow an optimal debt policy that generates efficient investment and disinvestment. We show how bankruptcy costs can distort both investment and disinvestment. We also show how managers’ personal wealth constraints can lead to delayed investment and increased reliance on debt financing. Changes in cash flow can cause changes in investment by tightening or loosening the wealth constraints. Firms with weaker investor protection adopt higher debt levels.     

Reviews

Regions. ERA 1998: 21st CENTURY REGIONS. London: Economic & regional analysis, 23. Buckingham Gate, London SW1E 6LB, £30 + £1 p&p paper.

Environmental management standards. Krut, R. and Gleckman, H. 1998: ISO 14001: A MISSED OPPORTUNITY FOR SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT. London: Earthscan Publications Ltd, £14.95 paper.

Environmental jobs. Hale, M. and Lachowicz, M. 1998: THE ENVIRONMENT, EMPLOYMENT AND SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT. London: Routledge, £17.99 paper.

Sustainability and regeneration. Carley, M. and Kirk, K. 1998: SUSTAINABLE BY 2020? A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO URBAN REGENERATION FOR BRITAIN'S CITIES. Bristol: The Policy Press, £11.95 paper.

Gambling. Frey, J.H. (ed) 1998: GAMBLING: SOCIOECONOMIC IMPACTS AND PUBLIC POLICY. The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. London: Sage Publications, £14.99 paper.

Informal employment. Williams, C. C. and Windebank, J. 1998: INFORMAL EMPLOYMENT IN THE ADVANCED ECONOMIES: IMPLICATIONS FOR WORK AND WELFARE. London: Routledge, £15.99 paper.

TECS. Jones, M. 1999: NEW INSTITUTIONAL SPACES: TECS AND THE REMAKING OF ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE. London: Regional Studies Association, £27.50 paper.

The New Regional Agenda. Dungey, J. and Newman, I. 1999: THE NEW REGIONAL AGENDA. London: Local Government Information Unit, £15.00 paper.

Mutual aid and self-help. Burne, Danny and Taylor, Marilyn, 1998: MUTUAL AID AND SELF-HELP: COPING STRATEGIES FOR EXCLUDED COMMUNITIES. Bristol: The Policy Press, £10.95.     

Model selection in stochastic frontier analysis with an application to maize production in Kenya

This paper shows how to compute the standard errors for partial effects of exogenous firm characteristics influencing firm inefficiency under a range of popular stochastic frontier model specifications. We also develop an R²-type measure to summarize the overall explanatory power of the exogenous factors on firm inefficiency. The paper also applies a recently developed model selection procedure to choose among alternative stochastic frontier specifications using data from household maize production in Kenya. The magnitude of estimated partial effects of exogenous household characteristics on inefficiency turns out to be very sensitive to model specification, and the model selection procedure leads to an unambiguous choice of best model. We propose a bootstrapping procedure to evaluate the size and power of the model selection procedure. The empirical application also provides further evidence on how household characteristics influence technical inefficiency in maize production in developing countries.

Opportunity Cost for Free Allocations of Emissions Permits: An Experimental Analysis

An important feature of emissions trading is how emissions permits are allocated. The choice between an auction and free allocation should not influence firms’ production choices nor consumer prices according to economic theory. However, many parties expect the method of allocation to affect product prices. This paper describes an experimental investigation into price determination under a cap-and-trade program with different allocation methods. Participants initially display diverse pricing strategies. However, given a simple economic setting in which earnings depend on behavior, we find that subjects learn to consider the opportunity cost of permits and overall behavior moves toward the economic prediction.     

Crime in urban areas: New evidence and results

Crime supply functions are reestimated in this paper using data corrected for victim underreporting. It is found in both a mean-variance specification and a conventional crime supply function, which includes measures of the offender's gains and losses involved in property crimes, that certainty and severity of punishment still deter. When correction for underreporting is made, the effects on the rates of robbery, burglary, larceny, and auto theft of increases in prison admission rates and prison sentence lengths remain negative. This seeming support for the “deterrence hypothesis” must be balanced against the strong evidence that improved legitimate opportunities have a negative effect on crime. Use of improved crime data and a more intuitive economic specification of the offense supply function leads to the conclusion that higher income is a better deterrent to some crimes than increased punishment.     

The role of MNCs in balancing the human capital 'books' between African and developed countries

The economic imbalance that exists between Western developed economies and African economies has resulted in retardation of human capital development in the African countries. The foreign direct investments that have freely flowed into Western economies have been the stimulus for the creation of jobs and the resulting educational infrastructure to generate qualified employees. Without this increase in human capital stock (i.e. in African countries) the ability of these economies to compete in the global, high tech, information economy of the twenty-first century is severely constrained. The paper examines the development of a human capital encompassing societal, organizational, and individual levels that can be stimulated by multinational organizations. The resulting positive impact on human capital in turn supports the growth not only of the African countries but also of the multinationals doing business in Africa.     

Global market segmentation for logistics services

While logistics services have become a significant source of competitive differentiation between firms, significant challenges exist relative to developing logistics service offerings for global business customers. Diverse regulations across borders, longer lead times, and increased transportation costs all add to the difficulty of managing logistics services internationally. As a service offering, logistics is often characterized by intensive customer contact, extensive customization requirements, and a reliance on extrinsic cues for service performance. Because of these qualities, logistics services are also subject to cultural influences that exist in cross-border trade. In this article, we argue that logistics service quality (LSQ) components can be used to identify global, horizontal, and vertical segments of logistics services customers, and that cultural and organizational characteristics may modify the LSQ-customer satisfaction relationship. By identifying specific customer segments, some which may transcend national borders, logistics managers can benefit from reduced costs, enhanced revenue, and the ability to differentiate their offering from the highly competitive marketplace.     

Unemployment and racial differences in imprisonment

Conventional wisdom about the criminal justice system suggests that extralegal factors such as race or employment status should not affect sentencing outcomes. In this paper we examine an alternative model of the relationship between imprisonment and unemployment and race. The model suggests that penal practices are shaped by the labor market conditions of a system of production and that prisons, as part of a larger set of institutions providing support for economically-dependent populations, help to regulate the most superfluous group of workers in the industrial economy of the Northern states of the United States—unemployed black workers who comprise a large fraction of the pool of “reserve” workers necessary for price stability and economic expansion. We find support for the structural model that links black imprisonment (and Northern imprisonment in general) to manufacturing output and black unemployment.