Attitude toward imprecise information

This paper presents an axiomatic model of decision making under uncertainty which incorporates objective but imprecise information. Information is assumed to take the form of a probability–possibility set, that is, a set P of probability measures on the state space. The decision maker is told that the true probability law lies in P and is assumed to rank pairs of the form (P,f) where f is an act mapping states into outcomes. The key representation result delivers maxmin expected utility (MEU) where the min operator ranges over a set of probability priors—just as in the MEU representation result of Gilboa and Schmeidler [Maxmin expected utility with a non-unique prior, J. Math. Econ. 18 (1989) 141–153]. However, unlike the MEU representation, the representation here also delivers a mapping, , which links the probability–possibility set, describing the available information, to the set of revealed priors. The mapping is shown to represent the decision maker's attitude to imprecise information: under our axioms, the set of representation priors is constituted as a selection from the probability–possibility set. This allows both expected utility when the selected set is a singleton and extreme pessimism when the selected set is the same as the probability–possibility set, i.e., is the identity mapping. We define a notion of comparative imprecision aversion and show it is characterized by inclusion of the sets of revealed probability distributions, irrespective of the utility functions that capture risk attitude. We also identify an explicit attitude toward imprecision that underlies usual hedging axioms. Finally, we characterize, under extra axioms, a more specific functional form, in which the set of selected probability distributions is obtained by (i) solving for the “mean value” of the probability–possibility set, and (ii) shrinking the probability–possibility set toward the mean value to a degree determined by preferences.     

The Institutional Foundations of Public Policy: A Transactions Approach with Application to Argentina

Public policies are the outcomes of complex intertemporal exchangesamong politicians. The political institutions of a country constitutethe framework within which these transactions are accomplished.We develop a transactions theory to understand the ways in whichpolitical institutions affect the transactions that politicalactors are able to undertake, and hence the quality of the policiesthat emerge. We argue that Argentina is a case in which thefunctioning of political institutions has inhibited the capacityto undertake efficient intertemporal political exchanges. Weuse positive political theory and transaction cost economicsto explain the workings of Argentine political institutionsand to show how their operation gives rise to low-quality policies.     

Strategies for Improving Codes of Ethics Implementation in Construction Organizations

It is necessary to reconsider the assumptions upon which the process of implementing compliance with ethical programs rests, in both theoretical and practical terms. These assumptions should hinge on organizational enablers that allow embeddedness of codes of ethics in the web of an organization's processes. This article sets out to describe an approach that will facilitate implementation of codes of ethics in construction organizations and a comprehensive literature survey approach is adopted to achieve this. The paper equally employs the application of the European Foundation for Quality Management (EFQM) model as a tool to stimulate ethical behavior in an organization, with the focus on the enabler criterion of the model. The authors discuss organizational enablers in relation to the implementation of ethical codes. The study demonstrates how ethics can be managed in an organization by proposing a framework to enhance codes of ethics embeddedness in the web of an organization. The paper indicates current research gaps and future opportunities for both academics and practitioners.     

Minimum nurse staffing ratios for nursing homes

The authors explored minimum nurse staffing ratios for nursing homes using production function simulations. Minimum levels of registered nurse hours per resident day were 0.31, 1.83, and 3.3 at 50%, 75%, and 90% levels of quality respectively. These results suggest that efficiency-oriented minimum nurse staffing points exist, and could be used to inform policymakers and nursing home administrators on better resource allocation and health care delivery.     

Assessing Cumulative Evidence within ‘Macro’ Research: Why Meta‐Analysis Should be Preferred Over Vote Counting

Understanding the conclusions a body of evidence offers involves accumulating findings. Two recent articles used vote counting to assess the evidence related to important macro theories: transaction cost theory and resource‐based theory. Each concluded that its focal theory is not well supported. In contrast, recent meta‐analyses of the same theories concluded that both are strongly supported. We explain why macro researchers should trust the findings of meta‐analyses but not those of vote counts. A direct implication is that researchers interested in advancing transaction cost and resource‐based theories need to build upon the meta‐analytic evidence. A broader implication is that, as the preferred method for accumulating evidence, meta‐analysis can be a catalyst for the re‐evaluation of established theories and the development of new theory.     

Shrinkage estimation of semiparametric multiplicative error models

Within models for nonnegative time series, it is common to encounter deterministic components (trends, seasonalities) which can be specified in a flexible form. This work proposes the use of shrinkage type estimation for the parameters of such components. The amount of smoothing to be imposed on the estimates can be chosen using different methodologies: Cross-Validation for dependent data or the recently proposed Focused Information Criterion. We illustrate such a methodology using a semiparametric autoregressive conditional duration model that decomposes the conditional expectations of durations into their dynamic (parametric) and diurnal (flexible) components. We use a shrinkage estimator that jointly estimates the parameters of the two components and controls the smoothness of the estimated flexible component. The results show that, from the forecasting perspective, an appropriate shrinkage strategy can significantly improve on the baseline maximum likelihood estimation.     

Hungry for Food or Hungry for Love?

Despite recent progress in reducing poverty, the fight against hunger remains a challenge in the United States. Charities have set up soup kitchens in order to reach out to the poor and hungry. Unfortunately, the way in which some soup kitchens are run is not appealing. One may wonder if waiting in line for a bowl of soup provided out of a van contributes to self-esteem. Beyond hunger, the poor suffer from isolation and a lack of respect from society. It may be worth looking at the experience of other countries that provide hunger relief in a more humane manner. In this paper, we analyze the experience of a soup kitchen in Namur, Belgium, whose cozy atmosphere has led its customers to come as much for socialization as for food.