The Nature and Persistence of Initial Public Offering Aftermarket Returns Predictability

This paper examines the predictability of monthly aftermarket returns of initial public offerings during the first six years of trading. Predictability is tested under the null hypothesis of random walk using a Markov chain analysis. The evidence shows that excess returns of IPOs (adjusted for the return on the equally weighted NASDAQ index) demonstrate non-random walk behavior through the first five years of trading and random walk behavior in the sixth year. This is accompanied by predictability of monthly excess returns conditioned on the two previous months' excess returns. A trading strategy is offered to capitalize on the predictability patterns. Implementing the trading strategy is not possible due to institutional barriers, providing additional explanation for why IPOs do not reach their intrinsic values for extended periods of time.     

Constructing Commercial Indices: A Semiparametric Adaptive Estimator Approach

Constant-quality commercial indices generated by ordinary least squares may suffer an efficiency loss due to leptokurtosis caused by outliers in transactions data. When the subsequent nonnormality occurs, substantial improvement in index precision is obtained by estimating the hedonic model using a semiparametric adaptive estimator technique. When this method was applied to 1,846 office transactions that occurred in the Phoenix metropolitan area from January 1997 through June 2004, a substantial standard error reduction of approximately 9% was realized relative to ordinary least squares estimates. The difference in average returns between the semiparametric method and ordinary least squares was about 0.25% in each period, which represents a substantial increase in commercial property index precision. JEL Classification C4 R0     

Provincial preferences in private equity

This paper identifies a strong tendency for Canadian private equity investors to finance entrepreneurs that reside in the same province. For all types of investors and entrepreneurial firms, in terms of the number of investments (13,729 transactions), 84.42% of investments were intra-provincial. In terms of the total value of these transactions ($20,193,896,909 in 1997 dollars), 61.15% of the investment value was intra-provincial. We provide evidence that both agency costs and information asymmetries systematically give rise to differences in the frequency of inter- versus intra-provincial investments, and compare the importance of agency versus institutional factors leading to home bias.      

Corporate domicile and average effective tax rates: The cases of Canada,Japan, the United Kingdom,and the United States

We use financial statement information to estimate three alterantive average effective tax rates for firms domiciled in Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States during the period 1982 to 1991. While many of the firms we examine operate worldwide, we use the termdomicile to refer to the legal residence or site of incorporation of the parent company. Our objective is to determine themarginal impact of a company's domicile on its worldwide tax burden, with controls for industry and year. We find both among domestic-only companies and among multinational companies the domiciles are consistently ranked in descending order by average effective tax rates as Japan, the United Kingdom, the United States, and Canada. In comparing domestic-only companies and multinationals domiciled in the same jurisdiction, only U.S. multinationals consistently face a greater tax burden than their domestic counterparts.     

The over/underpricing of initial public offerings

This article shows that lawsuit avoidance motivation can lead entrepreneurs to overprice, as well as underprice, initial public offerings of equity. The article simplifies the lawsuit avoidance argument by addressing the entrepreneur's acceptable probability of lawsuit predicated on the loss of reputation capital, in lieu of the explicit offering revenue/litigation cost trade-off previously treated in the literature. The model yields offering price regimes which include rational cases of overpricing and correct pricing, as well as underpricing, and comparative statics results for the relationship of the optimal offering price with project size, project risk, investors' litigiousness, and the entrepreneur's acceptable probability of lawsuit. The article argues that existing empirical evidence previously used to refute the lawsuit avoidance hypothesis supports the hypothesis in the context of the model.     

Shareholder taxation and aggregate dividend payout: Evidence from the tax reform act of 1986

The effect of shareholder taxation on corporate dividend policy is a major controversy in financial economics. The Tax Reform Act of 1986 eliminated the statutory tax disadvantage of dividends versus long-term capital gains for individual shareholders. Using aggregate time series data I find evidence that corporate dividend payout has become more generous in the period after tax reform.     

The food problem and the evolution of international income levels

In most poor countries, large fractions of land, labor, and other productive resources are devoted to producing food for subsistence needs. We show that a model incorporating the “food problem” can provide new and useful insights into the evolution of international income levels. In particular, we find that the food problem can explain why some countries started to realize increases in per capita output more than 250 years later in history than others. We also show that the food problem has important implications for growth miracles and the speed at which a country converges to its balanced growth path.     

An investigation of ethical position and budgeting systems: Egyptian managers in US and Egyptian firms

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the possible impact of ethical position and national culture on budgetary systems. In particular, the present study examines the budgeting behaviors of Egyptian managers who work for Egyptian firms and Egyptian managers who work for US firms in Egypt. Based on a survey that was administered to 395 participants, our results suggest higher (lower) levels of budgetary participation for Egyptian managers working in US (Egyptian) firms, higher (lower) levels of incentive for Egyptian managers to create slack in US (Egyptian) firms, and more (less) frequent slack-creation behavior among Egyptian managers employed by US (Egyptian) firms. Significant differences were found in the ethical orientations of Egyptian individuals employed by US firms compared with those employed by Egyptian companies. Our results also suggest that ethical orientation helps mitigate slack-creation behavior.     

Presidential Address, Committing to Commit: Short-term Debt When Enforcement Is Costly

In legal systems with expensive or ineffective contract enforcement, it is difficult to induce lenders to enforce debt contracts. If lenders do not enforce, borrowers will have incentives to misbehave. Lenders have incentives to enforce given bad news when debt is short‐term and subject to runs caused by externalities across lenders. Lenders will not undo these externalities by negotiation. The required number of lenders increases with enforcement costs. A very high enforcement cost can exceed the ex ante incentive benefit of enforcement. Removing lenders' right to immediately enforce their debt with a “bail‐in” can improve the ex ante incentives of borrowers.     

Affirmative Action: The Facts, the Myths, and the Future

This article focuses on recent federal court rulings affecting preferential treatment programs mandated by affirmative action policies and programs. The article addresses the greater burden that these decisions now place on organizations to justifying race-based remedial actions, and the standards by which these actions are judged. However, the programs affected by these rulings are only those imposed by federal, state or local governments. This article also discusses the narrow scope of these decisions—what programs they have not changed. As will be demonstrated, a broad range of voluntary private sector programs remain unaffected.