The economic implications of the VLSI revolution

In 1970 a silicon-wafer fabrication plant cost $2 million: in 1979 it was $50 million. The production of integrated circuits is not only capital intensive. It is also a high-risk business—rapid innovation brings the dangers of product and process obsolescence. Vast investments in complex equipment to produce ever tinier integrated circuits can be recouped only through high-volume sales. Consumers pay less per unit of performance and large firms are favoured. VLSI (very large scale integration) may shortly bring a generation of devices more flexible even than the microprocessor. But the diffusion of the new technology depends heavily on ‘gatekeepers’ who evaluate potential applications. The greatest obstacle, as in the case of automation, will be the design and choice of appropriate software.     

Dispelling misconceptions and providing guidelines for leader reward and punishment behavior

One unfortunate consequence of the focus on “charismatic,” “transformational,” and “visionary” leader behaviors during the past few decades has been the tendency to diminish the importance that transactional leadership behaviors have on leadership effectiveness. We say that this is unfortunate because recent research has shown that transactional leadership, in the form of contingent reward and punishment behaviors, can have substantial effects on a variety of important employee attitudes, perceptions, and measures of job performance. Therefore, in this article we discuss some possible reasons why transactional leadership has been relegated to a lesser role than transformational leadership, summarize the research that indicates the importance of leader contingent reward and punishment behavior to leadership effectiveness, and identify some of the mechanisms that these forms of leadership behavior work through to influence employee attitudes and behaviors. Following this, we address ten misconceptions managers often have regarding the administration of rewards and punishments, and provide some recommendations about how leaders can improve their effectiveness in administering recognition and discipline in organizational settings.     

Who was affected by new welfare reform strategies? Microdata estimates from Canada

A heterogeneous mix of aggressive welfare reforms took effect in different provinces and years starting in the 1990s. Welfare participation rates subsequently declined. Previous investigations of these declines focused on cuts in benefits and stricter eligibility requirements. This article focuses instead on work requirements, diversion, earning exemptions and time limits – referred to jointly as new welfare reform strategies – while controlling for benefit levels, eligibility requirements, province-specific labour market conditions and GDP growth, as well as individual-level socio-economic information. Province-year-specific variation in new reform strategies produce estimates implying that their presence is associated with a large decline in welfare participation of 1.3 percentage points (14% relative to the unconditional mean participation rate of 9.2%). Our coding scheme generates new measures of policy variation that distinguish reductions in benefit levels and tighter eligibility restrictions from new welfare reform strategies, helping identify how different subpopulations responded to different kinds of welfare reforms. Estimates from 46 subpopulations demonstrate that immigrants, native Canadians, single parents and disabled people were substantially more likely to be affected by aggressive new attempts to limit welfare participation than other Canadians receiving social assistance.     

Economic Freedom and Migration Flows between U.S. States

A modified gravity model is estimated using a cross section of data drawn from the U.S. Census Bureau survey of 2000 in order to analyze the impact of economic freedom on gross migration flows among the lower 48 states. Spatial econometric methods are utilized in order to capture spatial effects not detected by distance. In addition, the Economic Freedom of North America Index is decomposed to determine the individual impact of various policies. Results show that states with higher relative economic freedom experience greater migration inflow through its direct impact on income and employment growth. In aggregate, the findings indicate that individuals migrate toward states with relatively higher government consumption expenditures, relatively lower tax burdens, and states with more freedom with respect to labor decisions in the form of less restrictive minimum wages, less concentration of unions, and less dependence on public employment.     

An Analysis of Merger Financing

This research analyzes a theory of merger financing that indicates that the terms of payment for target shares should be used to optimally influence the post-merger liquidity and capital structure of the combined firm. In an empirical test on a large sample of mergers, the stock market reaction to the announcement of acquisition financing is support the theory. The empirical results also indicate that a large portion of the cross-sectional return differences on acquirers' shares can be explained by financing theory.     

Indirect tax harmonization in Denmark

Zusammenfassung Die Harmonisierung der indirekten Steuern in D?nemark.- In dem Artikel wird untersucht, wie sich die ursprünglichen Vorschl?ge der EG-Kommission zur Steuerharmonisierung aus dern Jahre 1987 auf die d?nische Volkswirtschaft auswirken. Der Verfasser verwendet ein Modell des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts, um die Senkung der d?nischen Mehrwertsteuer- und Verbrauchssteuers?tze auf die von der Kommission vorgeschlagene H?he zu simulieren. Die Untersuchung zeigt, da? die Durchführung der Kommissionsvorschl?ge betr?chtliche Verlagerungen in der Wirtschaft hervorrufen würde. W?hrend die heimische Absorption und das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt um 1,5–2,5 vH zunehmen würden, verschiebt sich das Verh?ltnis zwischen ?ffentlichem und privatem Verbrauch stark zugunsten des privaten Verbrauchs.

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Résumé L’harmonisation de l’imp?t indirect au Danmark. - Dans cette étude l’auteur examine l’impact des propositions de la Commission de la CE en 1987 sur l’harmonisation des imp?ts pour l’économie danoise en utilisant un modèle d’équilibre général appliqué pour simuler la réduction du taux de taxe en valeur ajoutée et de l’imp?t indirect au niveau proposé par la Commission. L’analyse indique que l’exécution des propositions aboutirait aux réallocations considérables dans l’économie danoise. Pendant que l’absorption intérieure et le Píb réel augmenteraient par 1,5–2,5 pour cent, la relation entre consommation privée et publique changerait en faveur de la consommation privée.

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Resumen Armonización de los impuestos indirectes en Dinamarca. - En este trabajo se examina el impacto de la propuesta original de armonización impositiva de la Comisión de las Comunidades Europeas de 1987 sobre la economía danesa, utilizando un modelo de equilibrio general computable para simular la reducción del impuesto al valor agregado danés y de otros impuestos al consumo a los niveles propuestos por la Comisión. El análisis indica que la adherencia a la propuesta de la Comisión podría resultar en una considerable dislocatión de la economía. Mientras que la absorción nacional total y el PBI real aumentan a una tasa entre 1,5 y 2,5 por ciento, la compositión del consumo (estatal y privado) cambia en favor del consumo privado.

     

Cost-effectiveness of targeted screening for the identification of patients with atrial fibrillation: evaluation of a machine learning risk prediction algorithm

Abstract

Aims: As many cases of atrial fibrillation (AF) are asymptomatic, patients often remain undiagnosed until complications (e.g. stroke) manifest. Risk-prediction algorithms may help to efficiently identify people with undiagnosed AF. However, the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening remains uncertain. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of targeted screening, informed by a machine learning (ML) risk prediction algorithm, to identify patients with AF.

Methods: Cost-effectiveness analyses were undertaken utilizing a hybrid screening decision tree and Markov disease progression model. Costs and outcomes associated with the detection of AF compared traditional systematic and opportunistic AF screening strategies to targeted screening informed by a ML risk prediction algorithm. Model analyses were based on adults ≥50?years and adopted the UK NHS perspective.

Results: Targeted screening using the ML risk prediction algorithm required fewer patients to be screened (61 per 1,000 patients, compared to 534 and 687 patients in the systematic and opportunistic strategies) and detected more AF cases (11 per 1,000 patients, compared to 6 and 8?AF cases in the systematic and opportunistic screening strategies). The targeted approach demonstrated cost-effectiveness under base case settings (cost per QALY gained of £4,847 and £5,544 against systematic and opportunistic screening respectively). The targeted screening strategy was predicted to provide an additional 3.40 and 2.05 QALYs per 1,000 patients screened versus systematic and opportunistic strategies. The targeted screening strategy remained cost-effective in all scenarios evaluated.

Limitations: The analysis relied on assumptions that include the extended period of patient life span and the lack of consideration for treatment discontinuations/switching, as well as the assumption that the ML risk-prediction algorithm will identify asymptomatic AF.

Conclusions: Targeted screening using a ML risk prediction algorithm has the potential to enhance the clinical and cost-effectiveness of AF screening, improving health outcomes through efficient use of limited healthcare resources.     

Quantifying the link between employee engagement,and customer satisfaction and retention in the car rental industry

In the retail service industry, employee engagement may play an important role in customer satisfaction and retention, as employees often interact directly with customers. This paper investigates the empirical link between employee engagement and customer satisfaction and retention by analyzing a unique data set from a large car rental company. Our analysis makes use of retirement-induced employee turnover as an exclusion restriction that is plausibly induced by employee age, thereby allowing for variation in employee engagement that is partially exogenous to common underlying factors that also impact customer satisfaction and retention. We show that there is a positive effect of employee engagement on customer satisfaction and retention. Further analysis of moderating effects highlight potential limits to employee engagement, as service disruptions in the form of car downgrades can dampen the positive effects of employee engagement. However, despite the dampened impact of employee engagement its overall effect remains positive indicating that employee engagement can be a key factor in building resilience to unforeseen service disruptions.