Riskiness of Real Estate Development: A Perspective from Urban Economics and Option Value Theory

In this article, we define a new construct for urban economic and investment analysis, which revisits the conventional wisdom that investment in real estate development is riskier than investment in stabilized property assets. This new construct, referred as a “development asset value index” (DAVI), is a value index for newly developed properties (only) in a given geographical property market. It tracks longitudinal changes in the highest and best use (HBU) value of locations, and it reveals developer and landowner behavior taking advantage of the optionality inherent in land ownership. In particular, the DAVI reflects developers' use of flexibility in the exercise of the call option to (re)develop the property to any legal use and density. We empirically estimate a DAVI for commercial property (i.e., central locations) and compare it with a corresponding traditional transaction‐price‐based property asset price index (PAPI) corrected for depreciation. We believe that the difference primarily reflects the realized value of flexibility in land development. We find that the DAVIs display greater value growth and are smoother over time and less cyclical than their corresponding PAPIs for the same locations. This suggests that developers successfully use flexibility, and that development may be riskier than stabilized property investment due primarily only to leverage effects (construction costs). Practical implications are also discussed.     

LEGAL KNOWLEDGE AND AGILITY IN PUBLIC ADMINISTRATION

To address agility in public administration, we have developed a knowledge acquisition infrastructure for legal knowledge, based on an implementation‐oriented conceptualization of the legal system. Our objective is to reframe legal knowledge as a knowledge source in a design‐oriented task ontology, building on insights from the CommonKADS methodology for intelligent system design. The main result is to make case law and legal expert knowledge of critical incidents in organizations, two diagnostic knowledge sources underutilized in modern management and engineering, more accessible as a resource for design of agile organizational structures and intelligent systems. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the Value of Municipal Bond Insurance: An Empirical Analysis

Using a large sample of municipal bond data from 2001 to 2010 in the U.S., this paper documents the time variation of the value of municipal bond insurance, estimated from the insured and uninsured bonds yield at issue differentials. We find that insured municipal bonds carry significant lower yields at issue compared to those of the equivalent uninsured bonds before 2008. However, this cost saving disappeared with the aftermath of the subprime credit crisis. We find that the supply of bonds and the level of market interest rates to have significant positive impacts on the time‐varying value of bond insurance. We also detect asymmetric response of these yield differentials to rises and declines of market interest rates. Economic intuition suggests that the value of municipal bond insurance is a function of business cycles but our tests support the contrary, which may be explained by the habitat preference of municipal bonds issues.     

United we stand,divided we fall: the failure of an accounting information system in a major radiology provider

This article explores the way in which a major Australian radiology organization implemented a complex accounting information system and how workers in the 72 radiology practices that had to use it resisted the change. The study reports on the issues that led to the circumvention of the system by individuals and, after only three years, complete withdrawal of the accounting information system by the parent organization. This article has implications for firms in the health care and other sectors considering implementing new accounting information systems. Organizations need to incorporate change management techniques and provide open communication to all stakeholders to minimize disruption and potential problems.     

The European IFRS Endorsement Process – in Search of a Single Voice

We analyse the creation and development of the European Financial Reporting Advisory Group (EFRAG), a key part of the EU endorsement mechanism for International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), which was probably the first example of a dedicated IFRS endorsement system. We discuss the historical background to the EU approach and we analyse how EFRAG evolved over its early years up to the Maystadt reform. Our analysis addresses its remit, its operational structure and financing and the key decisions made in the endorsement process over this period. We find that while national standard-setters had a limited role in the early stages, and EFRAG had limited resources, over time the pressure to find more resources and to try to achieve a unified voice in the creating of international standards have resulted in national standard-setters playing an ever-greater role. Nonetheless, a single voice for Europe is not likely to be attained     

Management earnings forecasts and other forward-looking statements

We identify forward-looking statements (FLS) in firms’ disclosures to distinguish between “forecast-like” (quantitative statements about earnings) and “other”, or non-forecast-like, FLS.  We show that, like earnings forecasts, other FLS generate significant investor and analyst responses. Unlike earnings forecasts, other FLS are issued more frequently when uncertainty is higher. We then show that earnings-related FLS are more sensitive to uncertainty than quantitative statements, suggesting that managers are more likely to alter the content than the form of FLS when uncertainty is higher.  Our study indicates that incorporating other FLS into empirical measures provides a more comprehensive proxy for firms’ voluntary disclosures.     

Inter-market competition for NYSE-listed securities under decimals

Blume and Goldstein (J Finance 52:221–244, 1997) suggest that quote competition between trading venues may diminish following tick size reductions. We test this suggestion by studying the competitive landscape in the NYSE-listed stocks before and after decimalization. We find that NBBO (National Best Bid and Offer) participation by non-NYSE venues declines following decimalization consistent with the prediction. At the same time, the importance of quote competitiveness in attracting order flow increases. In addition, although not as active in determining and maintaining the best quotes under decimals, non-NYSE venues become more active in price discovery. Finally, decimalization leads to lower trading costs and to smaller differences in trading costs across trading venues.     

Foresight in the Brussels Capital Region

This paper presents results from the Iris Futures research project. The research was aimed at exploring the potential role of foresight in the development of the Brussels Capital Region and the identification of tools, capabilities and conditions for an improved application of foresight in Brussels. An overview was created of the characteristics of 60 future oriented activities and 120 organisations involved in such activities At the outset questions on organisational or institutional fragmentation and collaboration were not intended to be in the foreground of the research but over the course of the research this issue was observed to have a significant adverse impact on foresight capacity in Brussels. The case of the Brussels Capital Region demonstrates that institutional and organisational fragmentation need to be overcome for a futures oriented practice to have opportunity. De-fragmentation, bottom-up and institutionally, is both a condition for and an effect of the futures oriented practice underlying the foresight capacity of organisations.     

Portfolio performance gauging in discrete time using a Luenberger productivity indicator

This paper proposes a pragmatic, discrete time indicator to gauge the performance of portfolios over time. Integrating the shortage function (Luenberger, 1995) into a Luenberger portfolio productivity indicator (Chambers, 2002), this study estimates the changes in the relative positions of portfolios with respect to the traditional Markowitz mean-variance efficient frontier, as well as the eventual shifts of this frontier over time. Based on the analysis of local changes relative to these mean-variance and higher moment (in casu, mean-variance-skewness and mean-variance-skewness-kurtosis) frontiers, this methodology allows to neatly separate between on the one hand performance changes due to portfolio strategies and on the other hand performance changes due to the market evolution. This methodology is empirically illustrated using a mimicking portfolio approach (22 and 23) using US monthly data from January 1931 to August 2007.     

Securitization,Risk‐Taking and the Option to Change Strategy

This article models the riskiness of structured securitization deals. The deals are put together by “banks,” which can exercise strategic options over the risk put into the deals. The banks face a trade‐off between the benefits of risk‐taking now and future franchise benefits if the deal pays off. The key insight is a convex relationship between the value of the bank's equity position and the risk in the deal. Although there is a continuum of possible risk, banks choose either the highest or lowest levels of risk open to them. Changes in strategy are discontinuous and unpredictable; a history of low risk‐taking may be a prelude to increased risk‐taking later. Competition, to the extent of reducing franchise value, can lead to more risk‐taking, as can more information in the market. The model provides insights into the risk‐taking that led up to the Great Recession and to institutions that are “Too Big to Fail.”