THE IMPACT OF UNEXPECTED EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ON ABNORMAL RETURNS TO EQUITY

This paper contributes to the empirical literature which documents the existence of a positive association between unexpected earnings and/or dividend announcements and abnormal returns to equity. The paper addresses some of the methodological limitations evident in the literature. In particular, one methodological difficulty encountered by previous studies is that since earnings and dividend announcements are usually made contemporaneously it is difficult to assess the marginal effect of either announcement on security returns. This problem is dealt with by constructing portfolios of securities which are randomized with respect to unexpected earnings (dividends), but which are systematically ranked on unexpected dividends (earnings). The results indicate that unexpected earnings announcements have a significant marginal impact on abnormal returns. In addition, there is evidence of an impact of unexpected dividends on returns, but it is weaker than unexpected earnings.     

PRODUCTIVE RECESSIONS AND JOBLESS RECOVERIES

We explore international variation in business cycle dynamics to gain insights into the recent pattern of robust productivity growth during downturns (productive recessions) and weak employment growth during recoveries (jobless recoveries) seen in some advanced economies. We find that sectoral change is associated with productive recessions but that labor market rigidity can impede reallocation and reduce the probability of a productive recession. We also find evidence of a link between productive recessions and jobless recoveries and that recessions dominated by reductions to employment, rather than changes in average employee hours, are more likely to be associated with jobless recoveries. (JELF44, E32)     

An empirical assessment of the effects of trade in innovative tasks on innovation output

Multinational firms are increasingly sending their innovative tasks abroad. This article examines whether offshoring research and development, design, and engineering activities provides any gains in terms of firm‐level innovation output. The effects of trade in innovative tasks on the probability of firms being innovative and the share of innovative product sales in total turnover are examined using an instrumental variable approach. The data in use come from a recent survey, which provides cross‐section observations for more than 14,750 firms in seven European countries. The results suggest that those firms that offshore their innovative activities are 60% more likely to successfully innovate. Also, offshoring innovative activities increases the share of innovative product sales in total turnover up to 35%. Furthermore, firms in this sample appear to gain from trade in innovative tasks when such trade is in product innovation but not when such trade is in process innovation.     

Odd Prices at Retail Gasoline Stations: Focal Point Pricing and Tacit Collusion

This study empirically investigates the theory that odd‐numbered pricing points can be used as focal points to facilitate tacit collusion. Like other retailers, gasoline stations in the United States disproportionately sell at prices ending in odd digits. I show that station prices are higher and change less frequently in locations using more odd prices (particularly those ending in 5 or 9), even after controlling for other market characteristics. The evidence suggests that the use of pricing points can be an effective mechanism for tacitly coordinating prices, providing an alternative explanation for the widespread use of odd prices in retail markets.     

Farmers,Middlemen and Exporters: A Model of Market Power,Pricing and Welfare in a Vertical Supply Chain

Markets for cash‐crops in developing countries are typically characterized by a concentration of buyer power at different levels of the supply chain. For instance, small‐scale coffee farmers sell their produce to a middleman, who in turn sells the coffee onward to an exporter, often a foreign multinational, with monopsony power in the hands of the purchasers at both levels. We analyze pricing behavior and welfare with different assumptions regarding market power. In particular, we show that a more powerful exporter is likely to benefit the producers and may even lead to higher welfare for the producer country as a whole.     

Non‐Homothetic Multisector Growth Models

Multisector growth (MSG) models are dynamic versions of computable general equilibrium (CGE) models. Non‐homothetic preference (utility) functions are required for the evolution of factor allocations and industrial structures in accordance with consumption expenditure patterns implied by the non‐unitary income elasticities observed in all budget data since Engel in the 1850s. But comparative static general equilibrium solutions and particularly solving the dynamics of MSG models require explicit specifications of all demand and cost (price) functions. On the demand side, the constant differences of elasticity of substitution (CDES) non‐homothetic indirect utility functions and Roy's identity provide the explicit Marshallian demand functions and budget shares. Sectorial constant elasticity of substitution (CES) cost functions and Shephard's lemma provide the explicit relative commodity price functions and the sectorial cost shares and capital–labor ratios. Walrasian equilibria are given by one equation and the multisector dynamics by three differential equations. Benchmark solutions are given for three cost regimes of a 10‐sector MSG model. History patterns of industrial/allocational evolutions are recognized.     

Investing Volatile Resource Revenues in Capital‐Scarce Economies

Natural resource revenues are an important financing source for public investment in many developing economies. Investing volatile resource revenues, however, may subject an economy to macroeconomic instability. This paper studies fiscal approaches to investing resource revenues, using Angola as an example. With spend‐as‐you‐go, resource revenues are spent as received, resulting in little external saving; public investment can be interrupted, driving up the capital depreciation rate and undermining stability. Gradual scaling‐up, instead, allows countries to build up external saving to shield investment from revenue volatility. The framework adopted here can be used as a planning tool to define a medium‐term fiscal strategy.     

Recontextualising a strategic concept within a globalising company: a case study on Carlsberg's ‘Winning Behaviours’ strategy

A corporate strategy is often formulated on the executive floor at headquarters. However, in order to make it live in an organisation, middle management and employees must be involved and make sense of it. These actors thus contribute to, participate in and enact the strategy in processes where it may take on new meanings and forms. This article investigates how ‘Winning Behaviours’, a strategic concept developed on the initiative of top management at the Carlsberg Group in order to improve global integration in the multinational organisation, was recontextualised. It draws upon interviews and observations as well as documents collected at the company headquarters in Denmark and in its subsidiaries in China and Malaysia. Here, expatriate and local managers tried to give sense to the Winning Behaviours in various ways, and employees brought their own local leadership ideals into play when they tried to make sense of the preferred behaviours and turn them into daily practices. The process of creating a new strategic concept and making it live in other sociocultural contexts was facilitated by headquarters staff in the Human Resources and Communications departments, who thus played an important role as change agents in the ‘glocal’ strategy process.