Do Energy Prices Affect U.S. Investor Sentiment?

The current literature has examined the effect of investor sentiment on energy prices, but no study ever has explored the validity of the reverse question. Therefore, this article explore whether energy prices (i.e., crude oil and natural gas prices) affect U.S. investor sentiment, using the methodology of quantile regression. The empirical results document that controlling for a number of U.S. macroeconomic and financial factors, there exists a statistically significant association between oil and natural gas prices and investor sentiment. However, only natural gas prices appear to retain their statistical significance over the majority of quantiles. These findings received robust support under alternative measures of the investor sentiment index.     

Financial Market Data Versus Accounting Data: Which Better Explains Stock Returns?

This paper presents the comparison of how financial market and accounting data affect stock prices and returns. The goal was to ascertain whether financial information or accounting data dominate in evaluating stock prices. Most valuation techniques used by firms are based on models using either accounting variables (earnings, book value, cash flows, research and development expenses) or financial market data (e.g. beta, market value, interest). The answer is of great importance for valuators and investors as it will help them focus on the most important variables and make better valuations and choices. This answer is also important for accounting standard setters as the preferred method will serve as an indicator for the quality of financial statements and their importance to users. The paper contributes to the existing literature in the fields of value relevance of accounting information and firm valuation and accounting standards (e.g. International Financial Reporting Standards, United States General Accepted Accounting Principles). To answer this question, share prices were estimated based on financial data using the capital asset pricing model and for accounting data, using Ohlson’s model. The results were tested for both methodologies by comparing estimated share prices with actual ones. The greater the correlation between the two variables the better the explanatory power of the model. The focus was on S&P 500 firms for the period 2002–2017.

     

CREDIBILITY, MACROECONOMIC FUNDAMENTALS AND MARKOV REGIME SWITCHES IN THE EMS

The main objective of this paper is to use the Markov regime‐switching modelling framework to describe and analyse the credibility of a number of countries participating in the European Monetary System during 1980–1998. Our credibility indicator, based on Hughes Hallet et al.'s (1997) methodology, is subject to discrete regime shifts and is made dependent on macroeconomic fundamentals. We carry out extensive testing to assess the specification of the Markov regime‐switching model and the potential existence of permanent breaks. A contribution of our paper is the specification of a multivariate Markov switching model that allows us to examine whether macroeconomic variables have asymmetric effects on credibility. Another contribution is the specification of a regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities, which enables us to determine whether changes in macroeconomic variables can trigger switches between the low and high credibility regimes. We find strong evidence of regime switching behaviour in all countries. Both the level of credibility and the transition probabilities display an asymmetric response to changes in macroeconomic variables, with the stance of fiscal policy exerting the most systematic influence in all countries.     

Dictator game giving: altruism or artefact?

Experimental dictator games have been used to explore unselfish behaviour. Evidence is presented here, however, that subjects’ generosity can be reversed by allowing them to take a partner’s money. Dictator game giving therefore does not reveal concern for consequences to others existing independently of the environment, as posited in rational choice theory. It may instead be an artefact of experimentation. Alternatively, evaluations of options depend on the composition of the choice set. Implications of these possibilities are explored for experimental methodology and charitable donations respectively. The data favour the artefact interpretation, suggesting that demand characteristics of experimental protocols merit investigation, and that economic analysis should not exclude context-specific social norms.

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