Hypothetical Bias Reconsidered: Payment and Provision Uncertainties in a Threshold Provision Mechanism

We extend research on the consequentiality of stated preference choices to a threshold provision mechanism for public goods. We develop a simple theoretical model of option price to analyze how option price varies with payment and provision uncertainty. We explore whether threshold provision contributions are similarly influenced by payment and provision uncertainty using an induced value contribution experiment. Results suggest that: (1) the probability of payment has a negative effect on contributions; (2) the probability of provision has a positive effect on contributions. We offer subjective beliefs regarding payment and provision as a plausible systematic explanation for hypothetical bias.     

Comovement in GDP trends and cycles among trading partners

It has long been recognized that business cycle comovement is greater between countries that trade more intensively with one another. However, nations face shocks to both the cyclical and trend components of their GDP series. Contrary to the result for cyclical fluctuations, we find comovement of shocks to the trend component of real GDP is weaker among countries that trade more intensively with one another. We simulate changes in ten-year output growth correlations corresponding to the estimated effects of trade and show that the impact of trade on trend comovement is quantitatively more important than its effect on cyclical comovement.     

Analysts' Forecasts Following Forced CEO Changes

This paper examines analysts' earnings forecasts during the period of uncertainty following a change of chief executive officer (CEO). It distinguishes between forced and non‐forced CEO changes, and examines whether analysts utilize their information advantage to reduce the heightened uncertainty of a forced change of CEO. Examining a sample of Australian companies followed by analysts between 1999 and 2009, we find that forecasting accuracy is lower and earnings forecasts are more optimistic for firms experiencing forced CEO turnover compared to firms not undergoing such a change. However, dispersion is not statistically different. The results suggest that forced CEO turnover events provide a challenge to the forecasting environment for analysts. During CEO changes, investors should be aware that forecasts are less accurate and have an optimistic bias.     

Are Multiple Directorships Beneficial in East Asia?

We posit that the benefits and costs of multiple directorships are conditional on firm characteristics. We find firm valuation is positively associated with multiple directorships in (i) firms with high advising needs and (ii) firms with high external financing needs. These beneficial effects of multiple directorships are generally stronger in countries with weak shareholder rights and in firms that are widely held. However, when controlling shareholder hold high voting‐rights to cash‐flow rights, multiple directorships reduce firm valuation, especially in countries with weak shareholder rights and in closely held firms. As multiple directorships increases, cash holdings (capital expenditures) contribute less to shareholder value. The negative association between value of cash (capital expenditure) and busy boards is mitigated in firms with (i) high advising needs, (ii) high external financing needs and (iii) less entrenched ownership structures.     

Binding constraints to productive investment in Malawi: A modified HRV framework

The paper applies a modified Hausmann, Rodrik, and Velasco (HRV) growth diagnostics framework to analyse Malawi's growth challenges. The study finds five critical binding constraints affecting productive investment and output growth in Malawi. These include land administration, taxation, customs and trade regulations, political governance, and cost‐of‐finance. Land constraints are evidenced by highly urban and rural population growth, an inverse co‐movement between the rural population and investment per capita, and low land administration indices. Tax constraints are evidenced by the negative growth of investment per capita. Customs and trade regulations constraints are evidenced by nontariff measures, such as high costs and the time it takes to export and import. Political governance constraints are evidenced by rising government debt and the low score on transparency, accountability, and corruption based on the World Bank's Public Transparency Scale. Lastly, high cost‐of‐finance constraints are evidenced by monetary policy challenges, such as high real interest rates, inflation rate, uncompetitive exchange rate, and foreign aid ineffectiveness. Therefore, we recommend that the formulation of crucial policy strategies to alleviate these five significant binding constraints be encouraged. The government should base such an approach to sound growth therapeutics that fully account for each challenge's root causes.     

The Role of Nonattenuated Rights in Positive Economics: A Critical Appraisal

This article assesses the institutionalist elements of Friedrich Hayek's neoliberal political economy by presenting his views on the entangled relations between the state and markets in capitalism. Through the analysis of Hayek's work, the article contributes to further consolidating the view that neoliberalism is an ideological project of institutional transformation which, despite some enduring myths, has an irreplaceable role for a state with many important functions in a more limited democracy. Markets, for their part, are politically contested social constructions that depend on previous non-market institutions for their existence and legitimation. This paper argues that Hayek's work corroborates this institutionalist claim.     

An alternative definition of individual bioequivalence

Several definitions of individual bioequivalence of two formulations of a medical treatment (drug) have been proposed recently. These definitions attempt to adapt the criterion of average bioequivalence, which would be deficient if substantive treatment heterogeneity were present. In some of the proposed definitions, relatively large differences of means can be compensated by differences in the measurement-error variances. We propose a definition based on a simple latent-variable model which overcomes this anomaly and need not involve the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's 80/125 rule. Our approach is based on a moment-matching estimator of the discrepancy between the outcomes underlying the subjects' responses. The distribution of this estimator is a linear combination of independent χ² variates; asymptotically, it can be approximated by a normal distribution. Evidence of individual bioequivalence corresponds to rejecting the hypothesis that the discrepancy is greater than a specified threshold. The approach is illustrated by reanalysing two bioequivalence trials.     

Can Singapore maintain its competitive edge in manufacturing productivity vis-à-vis China and Malaysia?

This article investigates whether Singapore can maintain its competitive advantage in manufacturing from a labour productivity perspective vis-avis China and Malaysia, which are generally viewed as Singapore's competitors in manufacturing. We also investigate the extent to which China is closing the labour productivity gap with Singapore and Malaysia in technology-intensive segments of manufacturing. Our analysis reveals that China has the potential to develop a high labour-productivity and low-wage manufacturing sector. In terms of manufacturing labour productivity, China is moving towards convergence with Malaysia. Compared with Singapore, China's manufacturing labour productivity is still far behind, especially in key technology-intensive industries like electronics and chemicals, such that it is unlikely for China to catch up with Singapore within a decade.     

Service level agreements: An essential aspect of outsourcing

This paper notes and explains the increasing use of service level agreements (SLAs), stresses their importance to insourcing and outsourcing relationships, proposes a taxonomy of service attributes, and recommends a hierarchical methodology for constructing SLAs. Evidence from interviews and examination of SLA documents suggests that well-designed SLAs contribute to fruitful relationships between business partners. The proposed methodology and taxonomy will simplify the time-consuming tasks of writing and negotiating SLAs. SLAs have not received academic attention proportionate to their commercial importance. Research to ascertain whether SLAs are used effectively and to seek better expression of business requirements in an SLA is appropriate.     

Health as a consumption object: research notes and preliminary investigation

Through the processes of commodification and marketization, materials and human activities are brought within the domain of market exchange. The results of these accelerating processes are observed in the consumer culture centred on objects of consumption. We contend that, in addition to healthcare, health itself has become yet another object incorporated within consumption space. This contention is consistent with the perspective of consumption as the dominant social paradigm in the structuring of health and healthcare practices. In this paper we present the conceptual backdrop for our contentions, together with details of a heuristic study. Our findings support the view that people regard health as a consumption object. Furthermore, the evidence suggests a patterning of responses by social grade and gender. Given our wider interest in class‐based health inequalities, we use our results to comment on the broader policy debate concerning this phenomenon in relation to consumerism.