Time-varying moments, idiosyncratic risk, and an application to hot-issue IPO aftermarket returns

This paper proposes time-varying idiosyncratic risk as a component driving conditional abnormal returns and outlines a corresponding Engle et al. [Econometrica 55 (1987) 391] ARCH-M market model. An application is given to initial public offering (IPO) aftermarket stock returns, where a positive relation between idiosyncratic risk and returns is consistent with young issues’ equity as a contingent claim on firm assets. The empirical results for an illustrative sample of German Neuer Markt stocks traded during the first two years after initial listing indicate pronounced skewness as well as a positive relation between conditional idiosyncratic risk and expected returns. Conditioning aftermarket performance on risk yields much lower levels of abnormal return significance than a standard approach.     

The Relative Importance of Actual and Potential Competition: Empirical Evidence From the Pharmaceuticals Market

We study actual and potential competition and other factors that determine price paths of brand-name drugs in the Swedish pharmaceuticals market. The results indicate that the price of the incumbent product is lowered by potential competition, entry of (additional) generics, and the introduction of a so-called reference-price system. We also identify a 'ratchet' effect, through which price regulation makes entry-deterring limit-pricing credible.     

How to Handle the Fiscal Crisis in Greece: Empirical Evidence Based on a Survey of Economic Experts

We asked economic experts polled by the CESifo World Economic Survey how to handle the fiscal crisis in Greece in the year 2015. The sample includes about 850 experts from 110 countries. We find systematic differences in experts’ recommendations. Our results suggest that policy advice is related to an expert's personal and country‐level attributes. Country‐level characteristics, especially credit default swaps as a measure of fiscal stability, predict views on whether Greece should exit the eurozone. An expert's educational background, age and professional affiliation predict opinions on the credit programmes of the International Monetary Fund. We propose that policymakers who seek balanced policy advice should consult experts from different countries and personal backgrounds.     

Archetypes as Triggers of Financial Bubbles

Sparking financial bubbles are irrational impulses—from mania to panic—that play a major role in collective human investment behavior. Contradicting the rational man theory, bubbles keep occurring. But to disregard its influences as aberrations have only rendered conventional economic theory as abstract academia with little practical value. However, allowing for the juxtaposition between the concepts of archetypes and the collective unconscious, as coined by the Swiss psychologist Carl Gustav Jung, and the generic anatomy of financial bubbles could provide fertile ground for an improved understanding of the seemingly irrational behavior. The author aims to demonstrate the workings of archetypes and proposes a measurement methodology designed to capture the subliminal forces that influence investment decisions.     

The Economic Contribution of High-Growth Firms: Do Policy Implications Depend on the Choice of Growth Indicator?

Prior studies have defined high-growth firms (HGFs) in terms of growth in firm employment or firm sales, and primarily analyzed their contribution to overall employment growth. In this paper we define HGFs using the commonly applied growth indicators (employment and sales), but also add definitions based on growth in value added and productivity. Our results indicate that HGFs in terms of employment are not the same firms as HGFs in terms of productivity, and that their economic contributions differ significantly. Economic policy promoting fast growth in employment may therefore come at the cost of reduced productivity growth. Although HGFs of different definitions may not be the same firms, young firms are more likely to be HGFs irrespective of definition. This suggests that economic policy should focus on the conditions for new firm formation and early growth of firms, rather than target a particular type of HGFs.     

Big-box retail entry in urban and rural areas: are there productivity spillovers to incumbent retailers?

This paper empirically measures the potential spillover effects of big-box retail entry on the productivity of incumbent retailers in the entry regions, and investigates whether the effects differ depending on the size of the new establishment relative to the size of the local market. The results indicate that big-box entry increases the productivity of incumbent stores in two of three rural entry regions where the IKEA is large relative to the local retail market, while no productivity spillover effects could be found in the case of the urban IKEA entry in Gothenburg.     

Opening Local Retail Food Stores: A Real-Options Approach

A real-options approach was used, incorporating uncertainty and irreversibility of investments, to study the number of stores entering the Swedish retail food market during the period 1994–2002. It was found that uncertainty affected the entry-decision. Entry was less frequent in highly concentrated local retail food-markets characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, whereas higher profit opportunities seem to have increased the probability of entry.