Objective methods for graphical structural learning

Graphical models are used for expressing conditional independence relationships among variables by the means of graphs, whose structure is typically unknown and must be inferred by the data at hand. We propose a theoretically sound Objective Bayes procedure for graphical model selection. Our method is based on the Expected-Posterior Prior and on the Power-Expected-Posterior Prior. We use as input of the proposed methodology a default improper prior and suggest computationally efficient approximations of Bayes factors and posterior odds. In a variety of simulated scenarios with varying number of nodes and sample sizes, we show that our method is highly competitive with, or better than, current benchmarks. We also discuss an application to protein-signaling data, which wieldy confirms existing results in the scientific literature.     

Monetary policy rules with PID control features: evidence from the UK,USA and EU

ABSTRACT

This paper considers the extent to which the monetary policy operations of three major central banks can be regarded as an application of Proportional-Integral-Derivative (PID) control rules. The paper outlines the general PID framework and estimates a series of dynamic models to identify how interest rate policy adjustments are affected by the rate of inflation and the level of macroeconomic activity. The paper examines data for the UK, the USA and the Eurozone. The results suggest that the PID rules can provide a useful theoretical and empirical framework for estimating central bank responses to the inflation and macroeconomic activity variables by improving the explanatory power of the Taylor rule model and determining the effect of the parameters.     

Confidence sets for the date of a break in level and trend when the order of integration is unknown

We propose methods for constructing confidence sets for the timing of a break in level and/or trend that have asymptotically correct coverage for both I(0) and I(1) processes. These are based on inverting a sequence of tests for the break location, evaluated across all possible break dates. We separately derive locally best invariant tests for the I(0) and I(1) cases; under their respective assumptions, the resulting confidence sets provide correct asymptotic coverage regardless of the magnitude of the break. We suggest use of a pre-test procedure to select between the I(0)- and I(1)-based confidence sets, and Monte Carlo evidence demonstrates that our recommended procedure achieves good finite sample properties in terms of coverage and length across both I(0) and I(1) environments. An application using US macroeconomic data is provided which further evinces the value of these procedures.     

The role of the workplace in ethnic wage differentials

Using linked employer–employee data for Britain, we examine ethnic wage differentials among full-time employees. We find substantial ethnic segregation across workplaces. However, this inter-workplace segregation does not contribute to the aggregate wage penalty in Britain. Instead, most of the ethnic wage gap exists within the workplace, between observationally-equivalent co-workers. Lower pay satisfaction and higher levels of skill mismatch among ethnic minority workers are consistent with discrimination in wage-setting on the part of employers. The presence of recognized trade unions and the use of job evaluation schemes within the workplace are associated with a smaller ethnic wage gap. These findings indicate that more attention should be placed on ensuring fairness in wage determination.     

Profit shifting and tax-rate uncertainty

Using firm-level data for 1,084 parent firms in 24 countries and for 9,497 subsidiaries in 54 countries, we show that tax-motivated profit shifting is larger among subsidiaries in countries that have stable corporate tax rates over time. Our findings further suggest that firms move away from transfer pricing and toward intragroup debt shifting that has lower adjustment costs. Our results are robust to several identification methods and respecifications, and they highlight the important role of tax-rate uncertainty in the profit-shifting decision while pointing to an adjustment away from more costly transfer pricing and toward debt shifting.     

Salvador Allende's development policy: Lessons after 50 years

Last year, 2020, was the 50th anniversary of the opening of the ‘Chilean road to socialism’ by Salvador Allende. Although the Allende government is the political reference for the 'socialism of the 21st century’ in Latin America, international supporters tend to disregard the primary cause of its downfall, focusing instead on the circumstances of Allende's death. This article explains the link between the Allende government's development policies and its macroeconomic outcomes between 1970 and 1973. It finds that Chile's economic collapse had an endogenous cause related to government policies. This supports the views of Mises and Hayek on the feasibility of socialist economic policies. Policymakers and commentators should recognise essential lessons from the Chilean experience to learn from past errors and effectively promote Latin America's economic development.     

Assessment of Russian aviation development for long-term prospects with the regard for Arctic developing: reproductive and technological aspects

The article considers the conditions of developing the aviation industry for long-term prospects taking into account factors such as changes in purchasing aviation equipment, progress in developing the Russian aviation market, and works for reconstructing and modernizing transport infrastructure in the Russian Arctic. The author aims to coordinate the Government programs for developing new aviation equipment and equipment for air transport via the program of Arctic Exploration and Development, as it is necessary to integrate various cycle flows with regard to high-tech capital.     

Build Coalitions to Fit: Autonomy Expectations,Competence Mobilization,and Job Crafting

Job crafting offers several beneficial organizational outcomes, yet little is known about what makes employees engage in it. In particular, the role of leaders in influencing their subordinates to engage in job crafting has been insufficiently studied. Drawing on role theory, we suggest that the congruence of leader‐subordinate autonomy expectations nurtures subordinates’ experiences of having their competences adequately utilized in their jobs. This experience, which involves the competence mobilization of their work roles, subsequently fosters subordinates’ engagement in job‐crafting behavior. A two‐stage field study of 145 leader‐subordinate dyads using cross‐level polynomial regression and response surface analysis supported the (in)congruence hypotheses. The results also demonstrated that subordinates’ perceived competence mobilization mediates the relationship between autonomy expectation (in)congruence and job crafting. In addition, leader coalition as a moderator strengthens the effect of perceived competence mobilization as a psychological condition for job crafting. Implications for practice and future research are discussed. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Sustainable Consumption Behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Conceptual Framework

This paper develops a conceptual framework for investigating the adoption patterns, inhibitors, and facilitators (PIF) of sustainable consumption in sub-Sahara African (SSA) settings. Literature evidence shows paucity of empirical studies on sustainable consumption from SSA, which partly explains lack of suitable conceptual framework to guide research in this area. Also, the existing frameworks, which were developed outside SSA may not be suitable for constructing sustainable consumption behavior in SSA because of its peculiarities. The key significance of this article is the potential of providing future researchers in this area with a framework to guide and manage their studies. As a conceptual article, insight was drawn from a plethora of scholarly articles in the domain of sustainable consumption and related areas. The framework is built on four key constructs—adoption patterns, inhibitors, facilitators (PIF), and intention. As a guide for studies from the SSA, the article includes an empirical section, which provides preliminary empirical validation for the proposed PIF conceptual framework based on a pilot test. The result from the pilot study, using structural equation modeling (SEM), led to positing the PIF Sustainable Consumption model, thus giving support for the PIF Conceptual Framework, which this article puts forward. In addition, the proposed PIF conceptual framework is capable of providing insight for crafting sustainability-related policies. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.