What causes exchange rate volatility? Evidence from selected EMU members and candidates for EMU membership countries

We allow for monetary, real, and financial variables to assess the relevant importance of each of the variables to exchange rate volatility in the case of selected EMU members and candidate countries. Ex-ante analysis shows that volatility in the Polish zloty/euro and the Hungarian forint/euro forex markets can be influenced by the monetary-side of the economy. On the other hand, ex-post analysis shows that forex markets in France, Italy and Spain had been influenced, during the pre-EMU era, by monetary and real shocks. However, the Irish pound exchange rate per ECU had been affected by only real shocks.     

Financial variables as leading indicators in Greece

This paper presents business cycle stylized facts for the Greek economy and extends the relevant Greek literature in the following directions. First, the index of industrial production (IOP) is used to represent real economic activity and business cycle conditions. Second, the behavior of certain financial variables throughout the various phases of the business cycle is analyzed in order to assess their leading indicator properties. Third, possible non-linearities in these variables are investigated and tested for their relation to the business cycle states. The results imply that the most reliable leading indicators are real Treasury bill rates. Volatilities of real short-term interest rates may also contain useful predictive information for IOP volatility. Finally, mean non-linearities seem to be associated with business cycle asymmetries in the mean. The author wishes to express his gratitude to conference participants at the 55th International Atlantic Economic Conference held in Vienna, Austria, March 12–16, 2003, and an anonymous referee for their valuable comments and suggestions. The author is responsible for any shortcomings in the paper.     

Testing for persistence in mutual fund performance and the ex-post verification problem: evidence from the Greek market

The present study examines a series of performance measures with the aim of solving the ex-post verification problem. These measures are employed to test the performance persistence hypothesis of domestic equity funds in Greece, during the period 1998–2004. Correctly adjusting for risk factors and documented portfolio strategies explains a significant part of the reported persistence. The intercept of the augmented Carhart regression is proposed as the most appropriate performance measure. Using this measure, weak evidence for persistence, only before 2001, is documented. The growth of the fund industry, the direction of flows to past winners and the integration in the international financial system are suggested to be the reasons for the absence of performance persistence.     

Idiosyncratic volatility and equity returns: UK evidence

The proposition that idiosyncratic volatility may matter in asset pricing is currently a topic of research and controversy. Using data from the UK market we examine the predictive ability of various measures of idiosyncratic risk and provide evidence which suggests that: (a) it is the idiosyncratic volatility of small capitalization stocks that matters for asset pricing and (b) that small stocks idiosyncratic volatility predicts the small capitalization premium component of market returns and is unrelated to either the market or the value premium. The predictive power of the aggregate idiosyncratic volatility of small stocks remains intact even after we control for the possible proxying effects of business cycle fluctuations and liquidity and is robust across time and different econometric specifications.     

Investment dynamics in markets with endogenous demand

I examine entry into markets where demand is an increasing function of past sales because of learning, networks, or fashion. Demand is initially unknown (with firms learning in Bayesian fashion) and grows endogenously over time. The competitive expansion path and the efficient/monopoly solution differ not only with respect to levels (the market's investment is too low), but also time patterns : externalities contribute to S-shaped diffusion. There is also path-dependence: small initial differences may determine whether the market will grow or not open. Policy arguments for subsidizing entry into new markets, especially in infant export industries, are examined.     

Feeling Good by Doing Good: Employee CSR-Induced Attributions, Job Satisfaction, and the Role of Charismatic Leadership

Interest in corporate social responsibility (CSR) is gaining momentum in academic and managerial circles. However, prior work in the area has paid little attention to how CSR initiatives should be implemented inside the organization. Against this backdrop, this study examines the impact of CSR initiatives on an important stakeholder group—employees. We build and test a comprehensive multilevel framework that focuses on whether employees derive job satisfaction from CSR programs. The proposed model predicts that a manager’s charismatic leadership influences employees’ interpretations about the motives underlying their companies’ engagement in CSR initiatives (intrinsic and extrinsic CSR-induced attributions) which, in turn, influence employee job satisfaction. Hierarchical linear modeling of data from 47 organizational units comprising 438 employees from three world-leading manufacturing organizations shows that when employees think that their manager possesses charismatic leadership qualities, they tend to attribute the organization’s motives for engaging in CSR activities to intrinsic values, which, in turn, are positively associated with job satisfaction. Also, the extent to which managers are perceived as charismatic leaders relates positively to job satisfaction. Interestingly, CSR-induced extrinsic attributions are neither explained by charismatic leadership nor do they predict job satisfaction. Implications for both theory and practice are discussed.     

The chicken or the egg? A note on the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and credit default swaps

This note provides the first empirical assessment of the dynamic interrelation between government bond spreads and their associated credit default swaps (CDS). We use data for the Southern European countries (Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain) that found themselves with a problematic public sector in the dawn of the recent financial distress. We find that CDS prices Granger-cause government bond spreads after the eruption of the 2007 sub-prime crisis. Feedback causality is detected during periods of financial and economic turmoil, thereby indicating that high risk aversion tends to perplex the transmission mechanism between CDS prices and government bond spreads.     

Idiosyncratic risk matters! A regime switching approach

The evidence on the inter-temporal relation between idiosyncratic risk and future stock returns is conflicting and confusing. We shed new light on the issue using a more flexible econometric approach based on [Hamilton, J.D. 1989. A new approach to the economic analysis of nonstationary time series and the business cycle. Econometrica, 57, 357–384.] regime switching model that accommodates the parameter instability of the forecasting relation between returns and financial variables. We find strong evidence suggesting that idiosyncratic risk is related to future stock market returns only in the low variance regime.