Smoothing and Benchmarking for Small Area Estimation

Small area estimation is concerned with methodology for estimating population parameters associated with a geographic area defined by a cross-classification that may also include non-geographic dimensions. In this paper, we develop constrained estimation methods for small area problems: those requiring smoothness with respect to similarity across areas, such as geographic proximity or clustering by covariates, and benchmarking constraints, requiring weighted means of estimates to agree across levels of aggregation. We develop methods for constrained estimation decision theoretically and discuss their geometric interpretation. The constrained estimators are the solutions to tractable optimisation problems and have closed-form solutions. Mean squared errors of the constrained estimators are calculated via bootstrapping. Our approach assumes the Bayes estimator exists and is applicable to any proposed model. In addition, we give special cases of our techniques under certain distributional assumptions. We illustrate the proposed methodology using web-scraped data on Berlin rents aggregated over areas to ensure privacy.     

The Association between Board Composition and Corporate Pension Policies

This study examines the role of board composition in the determination of pension policies. The results suggest that the proportion of outside directors serving on the board is positively related with pension plan funding levels. In addition, the proportion of outside directors mitigates the relation between financial distress risk and plan underfunding. Last, as firms approach distress, boards with a greater proportion of outside directors tend to allocate a lower fraction of plan assets to riskier securities. Together, our findings suggest that outside directors are mindful of their obligations toward pension plan beneficiaries.     

Border tax adjustments and tariff‐tax reforms with consumption pollution

We develop a model of a small open economy, where pollution per unit of consumption between domestically produced and imported quantities of the same good differs. We show that the first‐best policy combination calls for consumption taxes on all polluting goods, and border tax adjustment (BTA) measures, that is, tariffs or import subsidies. We identify conditions under which well‐known tariff‐tax reform policies for developing economies, such as a consumer‐price‐neutral piecemeal reform of trade and a consumption tax, and a consumer‐price‐neutral reform of all trade and consumption taxes improve welfare. We also evaluate whether reforms of trade taxes alone are superior to consumer‐price‐neutral reforms of trade and consumption taxes.     

Measuring systemic risk in the European banking sector: a copula CoVaR approach

We propose a new methodology based on copula functions to estimate CoVaR, the Value-at-Risk (VaR) of the financial system conditional on an institution being under financial distress. Our Copula CoVaR approach provides simple, closed-form expressions for various definitions of CoVaR for a broad range of copula families and allows the CoVaR of an institution to have time-varying exposure to its VaR. We extend this approach to estimate other ‘co-risk’ measures such as Conditional Expected Shortfall (CoES). We focus on a portfolio of large European banks and examine the existence of common market factors triggering systemic risk episodes. Further, we analyse the extent to which bank-specific characteristics such as size, leverage, and equity beta are associated with institutions' contribution to systemic risk and highlight the importance of liquidity risk at the outset of the financial crisis in summer 2007. Finally, we investigate the link between macroeconomy and systemic risk and find that changes in major macroeconomic variables can contribute significantly to systemic risk.     

Does the size of the action set matter for cooperation?

We use the voluntary contribution mechanism to investigate whether smaller action sets lead to higher cooperation rates. We find that this is the case for groups of four players.     

The relationship of mentoring and network resources with career success in the Chinese organizational environment

The relationship of mentoring and network resources, the two components of social capital, with career success was investigated in a sample of 113 Chinese white-collar workers. The findings suggested that the prevalence of mentoring in the Chinese workplace is substantially higher than in the Anglo-Saxon workplace, and that Chinese employees do not distinguish their network ties or Guanxi into expressive and instrumental. These results were in line with the presumption that mentoring is an integral part of the Chinese culture and with the view that network ties or Guanxi in the Chinese society cannot exist in a purely instrumental form. In contrast to hypotheses, however, the findings suggest a limited relationship between social capital and career success. In particular, the amount of mentoring, participants reported they had received, was related to their intrinsic career success but not to their extrinsic career success; and the amount of network resources or Guanxi was related neither to extrinsic nor to intrinsic career success. These results were largely at odds with the accumulated knowledge on the benefits of social capital for career success. The findings are discussed with respect to the changing nature of the Chinese business and organizational environment, and their implications for human resource practices.