Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001

This case study of fiscal sustainability in Turkey after thecrisis in 2001 reviews and extends quantitative approaches tofiscal sustainability analysis and brings them together in auser-friendly tool applicable in a data-sparse environment.It combines a dynamic simulations approach with a steady-stateconsistency approach. It also incorporates user-defined stresstests and stochastic simulations to deal with uncertainty. Andit derives the future distribution of debt-output ratios, evaluatingthe fiscal adjustment required to stabilize them. Value at Riskanalysis shows that considerable risks remain unless explicitfeedback rules from debt surprises to the primary surplus areimplemented.     

A typology of consumers' variety-seeking disposition based on inherent needs

Abstract

Consumers' variety seeking has preoccupied many researchers over the last three decades, and many explanations and models have been produced. The concept is relevant to market segmentation, but it has not been fully explored. This study explores variety seeking in order to derive a consumer typology based on the strength of the disposition to seek for variety, and the intrinsic needs that trigger this disposition. A quantitative methodology is adopted using a sample comprising customers of a large UK-based clothing retailer. Factor and cluster analyses are used to derive a variety-seeking disposition (VSD) typology. Findings indicate four distinct clusters, which differentiate in terms of the strength of VSD and the built-in needs that drive VSD. Clusters also discriminate in terms of behavioural, attitudinal, and demographic variables, including attitude to clothes, brand commitment, interest in fashion, age, gender, education, and occupation. A number of implications derive from this study in relation to targeting and marketing strategy.     

中国畜产品如何应对动物福利壁垒

近年来，越来越多国家开始关注畜产品在养殖和加工过程中所受的待遇，并以动物福利为借口限制外国产品出口。本介绍了动物福利内容，分析了我国畜产品的动物福利现状及制约因素，并提出了应对措施。     

Internationale Forschungs- und Entwicklungsstandorte

The internationalisation of research and development (R&D) is continuously increasing and will also take on steadily growing importance in the future. Firms are very mobile when deciding upon their R&D locations and choose locations where they can profit from local knowledge. In the light of the high degree of specialisation in certain technology fields by German firms while at the same time foreign firms focus their R&D activities on these very same fields, the authors recommend a broad approach for policies regarding education and basic research in order to be prepared for future technological developments.     

The effect of trade liberalization on child labor

The question of how trade liberalization affects the employment of children in developing economies is at the core of the debate on globalization. Trade theory predicts that an increase in the price of an exported good could either increase or decrease child labor depending on the magnitudes of the substitution and income effects. In this paper, we study the relationship between changes in the relative price of an exported commodity and child labor using household-level data from within a poor country. In particular, we relate child labor to regional and intertemporal variation in the real price of rice surrounding national and international rice market integration in Vietnam. We find that higher rice prices are associated with declines in child labor. Income effects play an important role in this relationship. Rice price increases are associated with the largest declines in child labor in households that are large net producers of rice. These findings show that greater market integration can be associated with less child labor. Moreover, our results suggest that the use of punitive trade sanctions on exports from developing countries to eradicate child labor is unlikely to yield the desired outcome.     

Business and the International Human Rights Regime: A Comparison of UN Initiatives

This article argues that the extension of the international regime of human rights to companies has not changed the essentially state-centric nature of the regime. The analysis focuses on three recent United Nations initiatives: (1) ‘Norms on the Responsibilities of Transnational Corporations and Other Business Enterprises with Regard to Human Rights’, (2) the Global Compact, and (3) the work of the UN special representative on business and human rights. The analysis shows that, despite these initiatives, states are the primary holders of human rights obligations and have a key role in the decision making and enforcement of the regime. Companies have participated to the regime, but they have done so mainly through lobbying governments and thus enforcing the role of states. The analysis also shows that the engagement of new actors to decision-making about the extension of regime norms is essential for norm adoption. Finally, the issue of non-compliant companies needs to be resolved before the regime can be considered established.     

Kombilohnmodell – Praktikable Konzepte statt politischer Placebomaßnahmen

Von Kombilohnmodellen wird eine bessere Integration geringqualifizierter Langzeitarbeitsloser in den Arbeitsmarkt erwartet. Welche F?rderkonzepte gibt es? Welche Anforderungen müssen an die Kombilohnmodelle gestellt werden? Wie schneidet das „Hamburger Modell“ im Vergleich ab? Welche Wirkungen k?nnen für eine bundesweite Ausdehnung des Modells prognostiziert werden? Dr. Michael Gerhardt, 41, ist Leiter des Grundsatzreferates der Beh?rde für Wirtschaft und Arbeit in Hamburg. Er gibt in dem Aufsatz ausschlie?lich seine pers?nliche Meinung wieder; Nina Wielage, 27, hat dort die Entwicklung des Hamburger Modells zur Besch?ftigungsf?rderung seit 2005 untersucht.