The yearend effect in stock returns over business cycles: A technical note

This paper provides evidence in support of the claim that the well-knownJanuary effect is influenced by the stage of the business cycle. Using monthly data for the S&P Composite Index for the period from November 1948 through December 1988 and the standard methodology for seasonal anomalies, the authors show that theJanuary effect is present during the entire period examined as well as in the expansionary phases of that period. However, its existence was not detected during the contractionary phases of that period.     

Market perception of efficiency in bank holding company mergers: the roles of the DEA and SFA models in capturing merger potential

Using the Stochastic Frontier Approach (SFA) and Data Envelope Analysis (DEA), this study examines the influence of bank efficiencies on the market assessment of bank holding company (BHC) mergers. The following two questions are addressed: (1) Is the target BHC's frontier efficiency reflected in the bidder BHC's abnormal returns? and (2) Does the difference in frontier efficiency between the bidder and/or target banks relative to their peer institutions influence the acquirer's abnormal returns? In support of the Inefficient Management Hypothesis, the findings indicate that bidder wealth effects do incorporate the target's X-efficiency as well as the difference in bidder/target efficiencies relative to their peer institutions.     

Dual-track versus single-track sell-outs: An empirical analysis of competing harvest strategies

We investigate two non-traditional harvest strategies for selling a privately-held company. Dual-track private firms file for an IPO while also courting acquirers. These firms withdraw the IPO to be taken over. Dual-track public firms complete an IPO and are taken over shortly thereafter. Examining 679 takeovers from 1995–2004, we find private dual-track sell-outs earn a 22–26% higher premium and dual-track public sell-outs earn an 18–21% higher premium than single-track sell-outs. Larger, VC-backed, prestigious underwritten, and bubble-year firms have a higher propensity to take the dual-track path. The implication is that entrepreneurs may increase their harvest value by using a dual-track strategy.     

A Comparison of the Forecasting Accuracy of the Futures and Forward Markets for Foreign Exchange

Theoretical differences between the futures markets and the forward markets for foreign exchange suggest significant differences in the forecasting accuracy of these two markets. The findings of this research suggest that there is a statistically significant difference in the mean percentage forecast errors of the two markets, but this difference is small and probably not of economic significance. Therefore, the managers of multinational firms could expect to get almost equally effective forecasts from the two markets.     

Developing a decision rule to predict failure: The case of savings and loan associations

The relative costs of misclassifying institutions by their financial health is an issue that concerns researchers. In this paper, a model and decision rule are developed that improve the probability of identifying those Savings and Loans that are predicted not to fail, but are actually failing. For obvious reasons, stakeholders in those institutions are very much interested in avoiding this type I error. The study also makes available evidence that the examination of Z-scores can be useful in identifying other financial institutions that may experience financial failure.