Investment planning under uncertainty and flexibility: the case of a purchasable sales contract*

Investment decisions are not only characterised by irreversibility and uncertainty but also by flexibility with regard to the timing of the investment. This paper describes how stochastic simulation can be successfully integrated into a backward recursive programming approach in the context of flexible investment planning. We apply this hybrid approach to a marketing question from primary production which can be viewed as an investment problem: should grain farmers purchase sales contracts which guarantee fixed product prices over the next 10 years? The model results support the conclusion from dynamic investment theory that it is essential to take simultaneously account of uncertainty and flexibility.     

Verbraucherpolitische Probleme bei der Anwendung des Gesetzes zur Regelung des Rechts der Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingungen (AGBG). Zugleich eine Würdigung neu erschienener Erläuterungsliteratur

Zusammenfassung Der Beitrag untersucht den Schutzzweck des neuen AGB-Gesetzes anhand der Entstehungsgeschichte des Gesetzes. Er weist darauf hin, daß in der neuen Kommentarliteratur der verbraucherpolitische Schutzzweck nur unzureichend reflektiert wird. Dies zeigt sich insbesondere an der Auslegung des gesetzlichen Zentralbegriffs der »Allgemeinen Geschäftsbedingung« und an seiner Ausnahme, den »im einzelnen ausgehandelten« Bedingungen. Hier ist nach Meinung des Autors eine Differenzierung in Geschäftsbedingungen zwischen Unternehmen einerseits und im Verhältnis Unternehmen-Verbraucher (Nichtkaufleute) andererseits erforderlich. Schließlich wird auf Probleme der Verbandsklage eingegangen.

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On the difficulties of protecting the consumer by means of the new german law on standard terms of contract (ABGB)

The paper analyses the attempts made in this Law to increase the protection of the consumer against unfair contract clauses. It reviews recent legal writings which have tried to evaluate the substance and scope of the protection provided by the Law. It is maintained that in these writings, the aims of the legislation are not examined at sufficient depth. Criticism is levelled especially against the way in which the concept standard contract term has been expounded.The author argues that standard contract terms have to be given different interpretations depending upon whether contracts are made between an enterprise and consumers or between two enterprises. In the first case (enterprise-consumer) a wide definition of standard contract terms should be applied in order for the courts to be able to deal with most consumer contracts. In particular, the author opposes the notion of individually negotiated contracts in Art. 1 § 2, which by literal interpretation would provide loopholes enabling enterprises to evade the law. In the second case (enterprise-enterprise), one should pay attention to the distribution of market power; the more powerful an enterprise in relation to the contract partner, the greater the need for legal control of contract terms.The paper also contains a commentary on the legal procedure of collective action (Verbandsklage) whereby consumer organizations can protest against unfair standard form contracts; some first practical experiences with the procedure are mentioned.

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Norbert Reich ist Professor für Rechtswissenschaft an der Hochschule für Wirtschaft und Politik, 2000 Hamburg 13, Von-Melle-Park 9.     

Social demands as strategic issues: Some conceptual problems

We argue that business firms are faced with new and changing social demands, and that it will be advantageous to the firm to treat the social demands as strategic issues. However, responding to these social demands strategically requires the application of new managerial concepts and techniques. In this paper we extend conceptually the lead-lag methodology of Ackerman and Bauer (1976), developed to deal with the evolutionary nature of social demands. Then we describe the problems of measurement, uncertainty and lack of common units of measures that have to be overcome before the responses to the social demands can be included in the strategic planning and budget process.     

Child Health and Economic Crisis in Peru

The effect of macroeconomic crises on child health is a topicof great policy importance. This article analyzes the impactof a profound crisis in Peru on infant mortality. It finds anincrease of about 2.5 percentage points in the infant mortalityrate for children born during the crisis of the late 1980s,which implies that about 17,000 more children died than wouldhave in the absence of the crisis. Accounting for the precisesource of the increase in infant mortality is difficult, butit appears that the collapse in public and private expenditureson health played an important role.