Stephen E. Koonin: unsettled: what climate science tells us,what it doesn’t,and why it matters

Business Economics -     

PUBLIC DEBT MATURITY AND CURRENCY CRISES

The theory underlying the effect of debt structure on the probability of a currency crisis and the slope of the yield curve was developed in Benigno and Missale (2004). In this paper, we provide the empirical evidence to support their model's predictions. In a dynamic panel data framework, we produce generalized method of moments estimates that give substantial support to the hypothesis that the role of short‐term debt depends on how a devaluation affects the reputation of the policymaker and the real value of public debt. In addition to the empirical analysis, we generalize the theoretical framework to allow for the presence of non‐deflatable debt and, for completeness, examine the case where the monetary authority can fully commit itself to an escape clause monetary rule.     

A model of racially changing neighborhoods

The present paper describes a simple mathematical model for neighborhoods under-going a racial transition. It is shown that such neighborhoods can be described by 2 parameters which take into account a wide diversity of situations.     

Growth, debt and public infrastructure

This paper presents a closed economy model of endogenous growth driven by capital externalities arising from both private capital and public infrastructure. The model is calibrated to fit data for India, an approximately closed economy. Simulations suggest that fiscal policy certainly matters and the choice of the income taxation rate, the mix of government spending between infrastructure and public consumption goods, and the long-run government debt/GDP ratio can all significantly affect the long-run growth rate. Intertemporal aspects of fiscal policy are also important and the precommitment (time-inconsistent) and non-precommitment policies differ substantially.     

Neuroeconomics?

The point of departure for most neuroeconomics is behavioral economics: the rational man of economics has been rejected in favor of more realistic psychological models. The old model supposes hyperrationality of individuals, and because it has been discredited, existing economic theory is useless. To complete the behavioral revolution, we need only peer into the brain and build more realistic models of decision making. As I explain here, this assessment of modern economics is hopelessly wrong.     

Business-to-business collaboration through electronic marketplaces: An exploratory study

Many business-to-business electronic marketplaces (EMs) are now offering collaboration functionalities, but the collaboration concept in an EM context has not been studied systematically. This paper is a preliminary effort to explore and categorise the different types of collaboration functionalities that may be offered by EMs. By surveying websites, we identified five types of horizontal collaboration (buying groups) and four kinds of vertical supply chain collaboration in EMs. Our findings suggest that supply chain collaboration tends to be supported more than buying groups by existing EMs, and a high percentage of EMs now offers supply chain coordination and integration. Among online buying groups, the exchange-catalogue model is the most popular, possibly since it puts fewer burdens on members and coordinators.