Analyst estimation revision clusters and corporate events,Part I

Summary This paper uses periods of unusually heavy earnings estimate revision activity by analysts to assess the relative usefulness of corporate information events (CIEs) in firm valuation. Because accounting information is more readily available, newsworthy and accessible, we hypothesize that CIEs that focus on financial statement information trigger greater analyst revision activity over a shorter period of time than CIEs that offer strategic or “soft” information. Our results are consistent with this hypothesis. In Part II, we examine investor response to revision clusters that accompany different CIEs.We thank the Editor, an anonymous referee, Joe Cooper, Todd Doersch, Tony Greig, Kent Konkol and Marc Sievers for helpful suggestions and discussions. We also thank Mehmet Ozbilgin and James Su for programming during the planning phase of this project, and Jinyoung Park for research assistance during its execution. We are very grateful to Thomson Financial, CCBN and Reuters Data for providing data used in this study. Bagnoli and Watts thank the Krannert Graduate School of Management andPurdue University for financial support.     

Finance,inequality and the poor

Financial development disproportionately boosts incomes of the poorest quintile and reduces income inequality. About 40% of the long-run impact of financial development on the income growth of the poorest quintile is the result of reductions in income inequality, while 60% is due to the impact of financial development on aggregate economic growth. Furthermore, financial development is associated with a drop in the fraction of the population living on less than $ 1 a day, a result which holds when conditioning on average growth. These findings emphasize the importance of the financial system for the poor.      

Political Economy and the Idea of Development

This paper explores the questions: what are the main organizing concepts of the older political economy of Smith and Marx; and how do they differ from those typical of more recent work in political economy? Special emphasis is placed on the importance of an idea of development in the older political economy, and on how that idea has been replaced in the newer political economy by notions of power and interest. The paper considers how the absence of a concept of development in the newer versions of political economy limits the scope and depth of these versions. Recent criticism of the idea of development is also considered. In light of this criticism, the paper considers weaknesses in the concept of development in the older political economy. However, rather than fully accepting the critique of the idea of development, the paper suggests that weaknesses in the classical construction can be corrected by paying closer attention to how we understand the ends of the development process.     

Probability models and robust policy rules

We consider Sims's (2008) argument that robust policy making requires that policy models be treated as “probability models”. In a welfare-based setting, we estimate by Bayesian methods a number of variants of a New Keynesian macroeconomic model and use both the model odds and posterior densities to design robust interest rate rules consisting of an inflation-forecast-based rule and a wage-targeting one. Each are shown to have distinct robustness qualities and distinct implications for the probability-models approach. To ensure feasible policy, we further impose that rules are stable, determinate and lower-bound compatible. Our results have important implications for the design, evaluation and analysis of the probability models approach to robust monetary policy making.     

Dimensions of hunting satisfaction: Multiple‐satisfactions of wild turkey hunting

Abstract

Dimensions of hunting satisfaction were studied among a sample of hunters who received permits to hunt wild turkeys in Michigan. Principal components analysis revealed seven dimensions of turkey hunting satisfaction: preparation, search, harvest, nature, out‐group social, companionship, and season. Although some components of turkey hunting satisfaction were similar to those studied previously for deer hunters, components found in this study to be important to turkey hunters’ satisfaction point to the importance of studying hunting groups of diverse species in order to understand more fully the satisfactions people derive from hunting.     

The Credibility Problem Revisited: Thirty Years on from Kydland and Prescott*

Macroeconomics research has changed profoundly since the Kydland–Prescott seminal paper. In order to address the Lucas Critique, modeling is now based on micro‐foundations treating agents as rational utility optimizers. Bayesian estimation has produced models which are more data‐consistent than those based simply on calibration. With micro‐foundations and new linear‐quadratic techniques, normative policy based on welfare analysis is now possible. In the open economy, policy involves a “game” with policymakers and private institutions or private individuals as players. This paper attempts to reassess the Kydland–Prescott contribution in the light of these developments.     

Online Media,Market Orientation,and Financial Performance in Nonprofits

The combination of social, political, and economic changes causing simultaneously decreasing funding and increasing demand for services is driving nonprofit managers to engage in proactive marketing in a for-profit model, including the use of online media. This research extends the MARKOR model of market orientation to examine the relationship between market orientation practices, as reflected in the utilization of online media, and their effects on the financial viability of nonprofit organizations (NPOs). The Wayback Machine website (http://waybackmachine.org) provided a unique ability to track site content over time, for comparison with each organization's financial indicators at corresponding points in time. The results of this study confirm the positive relationship between higher market orientation via online media presence and improved financial viability for the sampled group of NPOs. This study provides a simple, actionable, and free measure that NPOs can use to assess their current and planned online media.     

Globalization, intellectual property, and economic prosperity

Innovation and the adoption of new ideas is fundamental to economic progress, and so is free trade of goods and services. Here we examine the underlying economics of the market for ideas and its implications for trade. From a positive perspective, we examine how such markets function and how international trade interact with them. From a normative perspective, we examine the pitfalls of current intellectual property regulations, and how might they be improved. We highlight recent research by ourselves and others challenging the notion that government awards of monopoly through patents and copyright are "the way" to provide appropriate incentives for innovation. JEL Classification: X15, X16 This article is based on the text of the SER Invited Lecture delivered by Michele Boldrin at the 2003 Simposio de Análisis Económico (Seville). We thank National Science Foundation Grants SES 01-14147 and 03-14713 for financial support. Corresponding author: Michele Boldrin     

The NELS Curve: Replicating The Bell Curve Analyses with the National Education Longitudinal Study

This study uses the National Educational Longitudinal Study of 1988 (NELS) to replicate both the analysis in The Bell Curve and that of several of its previous replications. We examine the relative importance of test scores and family background in predicting dropping out of high school, starting college, arrests, and out-of-wedlock fertility. Our results relax several arbitrary assumptions made in The Bell Curve . We strongly reject The Bell Curve's conclusion that family background is almost always less important than test scores in predicting outcomes. In addition, our analysis casts doubt on some of The Bell Curve's claims concerning reverse discrimination in education.     

Strategic procurement, openness and market structure

We examine strategic procurement behaviour by governments and its effect on market structure in sectors, such as defence and pharmaceuticals, where the government is the dominant consumer. In a world economy with trade between producer countries, and between producers and non-producers, we use a modified Dixit–Stiglitz utility function with an independent taste for variety. There is free entry and exit by firms, but by anticipating their participation constraint governments can indirectly choose the number of domestic firms and their size through its choice of procurement price. Unlike the standard model with no independent taste for variety and no external sector of non-producer countries, there are incentives for subsidies, openness impacts on industrial structure and procurement coordination between producer countries affects firm numbers.