The Aftermath of Civil War

Using an event-study methodology, the article analyzes the aftermathof civil war in a cross-section of countries. It focuses oncases where the end of conflict marks the beginning of relativelylasting peace. The analysis considers 41 countries involvedin internal wars over the period 1960–2003. To providea comprehensive evaluation of the aftermath of war, a rangeof social areas is considered: basic indicators of economicperformance, health and education, political development, demographictrends, and conflict and security issues. For each indicatorthe post- and pre-war situations are compared and their dynamictrends during the post-conflict period are examined. The analysisis conducted in both absolute terms and relative to controlgroups of countries that are similar except for conflict. Thefindings indicate that even though war has devastating effectsand its aftermath can be immensely difficult, when the end ofwar marks the beginning of lasting peace, recovery and improvementare achieved.     

Do S&P 500 index options violate the martingale restriction?

The study tests Longstaff's martingale restriction on S&P 500 index options over the period 1990–1994. Assuming the S&P index follows a lognormal distribution results in systematic violations of the martingale restriction, the implied index value from options consistently overestimating the market value. Adopting a generalized distribution, allowing for nonnormal third and fourth moments, produces economically insignificant rejections of the martingale restriction. A simulation analysis supports the empirical results from the lognormal model in the presence of nonnormal skewness and kurtosis. Overall, the results support the conclusion that the no-arbitrage assumption coupled with the generalized distribution offers a good working model for S&P index options over the period studied. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 499–521, 1999     

The Effects of Compensation Structures and Monetary Rewards on Managers’ Decisions to Blow the Whistle

Recent research indicates that compensation structure can be used by firms to discourage their employees from whistleblowing. We extend the ethics literature by examining how compensation structures and financial rewards work together to influence managers’ decisions to blow the whistle. Results from an experiment indicate that compensation with restricted stock, relative to stock payments that lack restrictions, can enhance the likelihood that managers will blow the whistle when large rewards are available. However, restricted stock can also threaten the effectiveness of whistleblowing systems without the presence of large financial rewards for whistleblowing. Thus, the large potential rewards for whistleblowing enacted by the Dodd–Frank Act appear timely as firms are moving toward compensation agreements that include greater proportions of restricted stock.     

Setting and vetting strategy: Bridging the chasm between CEOs and boards

One of directors’ key fiduciary duties is to set the firm’s direction and then vet the strategy proposed by the CEO. Despite this, McKinsey reports that the majority of directors feel they do not understand their firm’s strategy, and even if they do understand it, they do not feel they have the desired impact on their firm’s strategy. This article argues that this shortfall stems from a failure to cross the chasm between CEOs and directors. We propose a framework to bridge this gap and assist board members to better understand and vet their firm’s strategy.     

Evaluating Service Marketing in Airline Industry and Its Influence on Student Passengers' Purchasing Behavior Using Taipei–London Route as an Example

This article reports an empirical study into airline consumer purchase behavior on a major global route between the United Kingdom (UK) and Taipei. It focuses on the factors influencing airline choice for a sample of 60 Taiwanese students based at UK Universities and traveling on five airlines: British Airways, Cathay Pacific Airways, China Airlines, EVA Airways, and Royal Dutch Airways. Several stages of data gathering were undertaken and a well‐established analytical framework for services marketing was used to identify gaps between the desired and received service. The main findings suggest that service quality, including in‐flight entertainment, cabin crew attitude, and seating comfort, can be as important as, or more important than, price in student purchase decisions for long‐haul flights. Other important factors in carrier choice included student discounts, baggage allowances, and airline safety record.     

Testing for structural stability of factor augmented forecasting models

Mild factor loading instability, particularly if sufficiently independent across the different constituent variables, does not affect the estimation of the number of factors, nor subsequent estimation of the factors themselves (see e.g.  Stock and Watson (2009)). This result does not hold in the presence of large common breaks in the factor loadings, however. In this case, information criteria overestimate the number of breaks. Additionally, estimated factors are no longer consistent estimators of “true” factors. Hence, various recent research papers in the diffusion index literature focus on testing the constancy of factor loadings. However, forecast failure of factor augmented models can be due to either factor loading instability, regression coefficient instability, or both. To address this issue, we develop a test for the joint hypothesis of structural stability of both factor loadings and factor augmented forecasting model regression coefficients. Our proposed test statistic has a chi-squared limiting distribution, and we are able to establish the first order validity of (block) bootstrap critical values. Empirical evidence is also presented for 11 US macroeconomic indicators.     

A reduced version of the horizontal and vertical individualism and collectivism scale: A four-country assessment

Individualism/Collectivism is the most widely used cultural dimension in the marketing literature; yet researchers suggest that distinctions within cultures, such as the horizontal and vertical dimensions of Individualism and Collectivism (Singelis et al., 1995; Shavitt et al., 2006), may provide better insights into consumption behavior and responses to marketing stimuli. However, the 32-item attitudinal scale typically used to measure H/V dimensions has been plagued by measurement problems limiting its use and applicability in cross-cultural marketing and consumer research. This paper presents data from six samples in four countries (China, Denmark, India, the U.S.) conducted to test a parsimonious and psychometrically stable 14-item scale measuring the horizontal/vertical and individualist/collectivist dimensions of culture. Theoretical and methodological support for the new scale is offered. The 14-item reduced scale adequately taps into the domain of the construct.     

Testing the endogenous growth model: public expenditure, taxation, and growth over the long run

Endogenous growth models, such as Barro (1990), predict that government expenditure and taxation will have both temporary and permanent effects on growth. We test this prediction using panels of annual and period‐averaged data for OECD countries during 1970–95, isolating long‐run from short‐run fiscal effects. Our results strongly support the endogenous growth model and suggest that long‐run fiscal effects are not fully captured by period averaging and static panel methods. Unlike previous investigations, our estimates are free from biases associated with incomplete specification of the government budget constraint and do not appear to result from endogeneity of fiscal or investment variables. JEL Classification: H30, O40 Validation du modèle de croissance endogène: dépenses publiques, fiscalité et croissance à long terme. Des modèles de croissance endogène comme celui de Barro (1990) prédisent que dépenses gouvernementales et fiscalité vont avoir des effets temporaires et permanents sur la croissance. On met cette prévision au test à l'aide de données annuelles et pour certaines moyennes couvrant des sous‐périodes pour les pays de l'OCDE (1970–95) dans le but de départager les effets à court et à long terme. Les résultats valident fortement le modèle de croissance endogène et suggèrent que les effets fiscaux à long terme ne sont pas pleinement capturés par des méthodes utilisant des moyennes ou des méthodes statiques. Contrairement aux résultats d'enquêtes antérieures, les résultats proposés ne souffrent pas de distorsions attribuables à une spécification incomplète de la contrainte budgétaire du gouvernement, et ne semblent pas être l'effet d'écho de l'endogénéité des variables fiscales et de l'investissement.     

Signaling,Financial Slack and Corporate Acquisitions

This paper shows that under certain conditions a firm's decision concerning the optimal medium of exchange to use in acquiring another firm is related to the decision of which source of capital should be used to finance long-term projects. An example of this type of interaction occurs when the firm's only source of financing a positive net present value project is an equity issue. In a Myers and Majluf (1984) world of asymmetric information the value maximizing strategy for the firm is to forego the public equity offering and instead use a stock offer to acquire a firm possessing financial slack. The process is modeled using an extension of the Myers and Majluf (1984) model and demonstrates how the acquisition alternative allows managers to separate the signals regarding the investment and financing decisions. Including net pension assets into our measure of financial slack, we provide empirical supports for the ability of the extended model to explain observed merger activity.