Tax-subsidized underpricing: The market for Build America Bonds

Build America Bonds (BABs) were issued by municipalities for 20 months as a part of the 2009 fiscal package. Unlike traditional tax-exempt municipals, BABs are taxable to the holder, but the Treasury rebates 35% of the coupon to the issuer. The stated purpose was to provide municipalities access to a more liquid market including foreign, tax-exempt, and tax-deferred investors. We find BABs do not exhibit greater liquidity than traditional municipals. BABs are more underpriced initially, particularly for interdealer trades. BABs also show a substitution from underwriter fees toward more underpricing, suggesting that the underpricing is a strategic response to the tax subsidy.     

Discounted Cash Flow Valuation for Small Cap M&A Integration*

Frank Batten rose to the upper ranks of the Forbes 400 by using his Norfolk newspaper as a base to consolidate publications and then later to create a media enterprise, including cable‐TV (which was eventually sold for $1.2 billion) and The Weather Channel (sold for over $3 billion). Batten's success offers a compelling case study of the often pursued but much maligned “roll up” strategy of mergers, providing evidence that the strategy can produce superior returns for those consolidators devoted to integrating small, value‐priced acquisitions within an industry niche. The author identifies three keys to Batten's success in making the strategy work: (1) aggressive, but astute, adoption of “best practices” and enhanced processes; (2) refinement of the business model to “roll out” the launch of like entities to underserved markets; and, most important, (3) identification and pursuit of innovative business development opportunities made possible by the consolidation. Too often, intricate discounted cash flow (DCF) analyses are used to justify disastrous valuations, such as the one that helped support Daimler's $37 billion acquisition of Chrysler. Landmark's employment of rigorous DCF analyses was valued primarily not as a guide to value, but rather as a way of assessing the economic drivers of the business, the opportunities to control costs, the rationality of forecasted growth rates, and the probability of competition and market forces affecting short‐ and longterm results. These analyses formed the basis for management's long‐term development goals. When seeking approval for a deal, however, the valuation depended on a simpler criterion: the multiple of the prior year's cash flow relative to prospective long‐term profit growth. In this regard, Batten's use of DCF was much more akin to Warren Buffett's “spontaneous” valuations, delivered “customarily within five minutes.”     

Post-earnings-announcement Drift: Some Preliminary Evidence for the UK

This paper tests for the presence of post-earnings-announcement drift on the London Stock Exchange using data for seven half-years for a constant sample of 206 quoted companies. Separate results are presented for interim and final earnings announcements and the results are disaggregated by firm size. Overall, we find evidence of significant drift for the earnings announcements of small firms but not for the announcements of large firms.     

Risk and Return in the U.S. Housing Market: A Cross-Sectional Asset-Pricing Approach

This article carries out an asset-pricing analysis of the U.S. metropolitan housing market. We use ZIP code–level housing data to study the cross-sectional role of volatility, price level, stock market risk and idiosyncratic volatility in explaining housing returns. While the related literature tends to focus on the dynamic role of volatility and housing returns within submarkets over time, our risk–return analysis is cross-sectional and covers the national U.S. metropolitan housing market. The study provides a number of important findings on the asset-pricing features of the U.S. housing market. Specifically, we find (i) a positive relation between housing returns and volatility, with returns rising by 2.48% annually for a 10% rise in volatility, (ii) a positive but diminishing price effect on returns and (iii) that stock market risk is priced directionally in the housing market. Our results on the return-volatility-price relation are robust to (i) metropolitan statistical area clustering effects and (ii) differences in socioeconomic characteristics among submarkets related to income, employment rate, managerial employment, owner-occupied housing, gross rent and population density.     

Tariff reduction via inflation : U. S. specific tariffs 1972–1979

Zusammenfassung Zollabbau mittels Inflation: Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten 1972–1979. -Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten — und zwar sowohl die reinen spezifischen Z?lle als auch deren Anteil in zusammengesetzten Z?llen -wurden zwischen 1972 und 1979 nominal festgesetzt. Das bedeutet, da\ die amerikanische Inflation die reale Protektion, die in diesen spezifischen Z?llen zum Ausdruck kommt, in dieser Zeit reduzierte und dadurch die überm?\ige Belastung, die mit diesen Tarifen verbunden ist, herabsetzte. Dieser Aufsatz liefert Sch?tzwerte (1) für die Verringerung der überm?\igen Belastung durch diese Tarife und (2) für die von der Inflation verursachte Verminderung der generellen USZollprotektion. Nach den Sch?tzungen der Autoren verringerte die Inflation zwischen 1972 und 1979 die durchschnittlichen Zolls?tze für Meistbegünstigungsimporte um 11,9 vH. In den Verhandlungen der Kennedy-Runde wurden die Z?lle sch?tzungsweise um 35 vH herabgesetzt, w?hrend der Zollabbau der Tokio-Runde bei 33 vH lag. Die inflationsinduzierte Zollsenkung ist im Vergleich zu diesen formalen Zollsenkungen betr?chtlich. Trotz des günstigen Vergleichs scheinen die Wohlfahrtsgewinne, die sich aus dem inflationsbedingten Abbau ergeben, verh?ltnism?\ig klein zu sein.

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Résumé La réduction de tarif via l’inflation: Les tarifs spécifiques des E.U. 1972–1979. -Des tarifs spécifiques des E.U., purement spécifiques aussi bien que le rapport spécifique des droits composés, ont été fixés en terme nominal entre {dy1972} et 1979. L’inflation des E.U. entre 1972 et 1979 avait réduit le niveau de la protection, qui est implicite dans ces tarifs spécifiques, et diminué ainsi le charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs. L’article contient des estimations (1) de la réduction du charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs et (2) de la réduction induite par l’inflation en protection générale des E.U. Les auteurs estiment que l’inflation entre 1972 et 1979 a causé une réduction de 11.9 pourcent du taux tarifaire moyen imposé sur les importations NPF. Les négociations de la ?Kennedy Round? ont réduit, d’après cette estimation, les tarifs de 35 pourcent, pendant que la réduction à la fin de la ?Tokyo Round? se chiffrait à 33 pourcent. La réduction induite par l’inflation se tient favorablement avec les résultats de ces réductions officielles. Malgré cette comparaison favorable les gains de bien-être qui résultaient de ces réductions induites par l’inflation semblent relativement petits.

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Resumen Reducción de axanceles por medio de inflación: Aranceles específicos en los EEUU entre {dy1972} y 1979. -Los aranceles específicos de los EEUU, tanto aquellos puramente específicos como también la porción específica de los aranceles combinados, han permanecido fijos en términos nominales entre 1972 y 1979. Por ello, la inflación que hubo en los EEUU entre 1972 y 1979 redujo el nivel real de protección implicite en los aranceles específicos. En este trabajo se presentan estimaciones (1) de la reducción de la protección asociada con estos aranceles y (2) de la reducción de la protección total del sistema general de aranceles de los EEUU inducida por la inflación. Segün los resultados de los autores la inflación logró disminuir el arancel medio sobre importaciones MFN en un 11,9 por ciento entre {dy1972} y 1979. Las negociaciones en la Kennedy Round habrían reducido la protección en un 35 por ciento, mientras que las de la Tokio Round habrian logrado una reducción del 33 por ciento. La reducción de la protección inducida por la inflación puede compararse ventajosamente con la que ocurrió en estas negociaciones. Sin embargo, los beneficios relativos derivados de la reductión inducida por la inflación resultan marginales.

     

Whither Classical Liberalism?

Two British academics were invited to reflect on the argument of ten leading scholars including three Nobel Loureates) on the 'unfinished' agenda of economic liberalisation. * Norman Barry, Professor of Policits of the University of Buckingham, and David Collard, Professor of Economics at Bath University, present diverse sympthetic and sceptical judgements.