Should multivariate early warning systems for banking crises pool across regions?

Most extant work on prediction of banking crises has utilised global samples, which are in turn dominated by observations from middle-income countries, and rely on a single estimator. However, economic and financial structures as well as the pattern of shocks may differ substantially across regions, while a range of specifications is desirable to check robustness. Accordingly, in this paper we test the implicit pooling assumption in earlier multivariate work on Early Warning Systems using both logit and binary recursive tree specifications separately for crises in Asia and Latin America, as well as the pooled sample. Results suggest markedly different crisis determinants across regions, implying global samples are inappropriate.     

Ethics and entrepreneurship

As the study of entrepreneurship and the study of business ethics become increasingly established, the intersection of entrepreneurship and ethics is receiving increasing scholarly attention. In this paper, we review the research connecting ethics and entrepreneurship, classifying the literature into three broad themes; we also identify and integrate the key themes that emerge, and we offer suggestions for future research. We conclude by introducing the articles in this special issue.     

The Relation between Returns and Earnings: Evidence for the UK

This paper presents an empirical study of the explanatory power of annual earnings figures for annual stock returns using UK data. The analysis is performed on a sample of companies, with varying year-ends, over the period 1969–1990. The research exploits Ohlson's recent theoretical contributions to the study of the valuation relevance of accounting information, and it complements a study by Easton and Harris (1991) on US data. Similar to the results of Easton and Harris, the results for the UK provide consistent evidence that both earnings levels and earnings differences have significant explanatory power for security returns. However, unlike Easton and Harris, the evidence from individual year regressions suggests that changes in earnings rather than the level of earnings may be more important in explaining security returns in the UK.     

Multiple Buyers, Rent‐Defending and the Observed Social Costs of Monopoly

This paper uses analytical and experimental methods to assess the effects of fracturing the interests of agents seeking to maintain the competitive status quo in a rent‐seeking contest for a monopoly franchise. Theoretically, it is shown that while "rent‐defending" can ameliorate the social costs of rent‐seeking, these beneficial effects deteriorate quickly as the interests of those seeking to maintain the status quo become fractured. Experimental results indicate that overbidding is persistent when bidders have different sharing rules. In fact, the observed social costs of rent‐seeking often increase just when rent‐defending has the greatest predicted ameliorative effect.     

For the Sake of Argument: Towards an Understanding of Rhetoric as Process

ABSTRACT   This paper seeks to respond to two particular aspects of Legge's work, her development of the concept of rhetoric and her commitment to the educative process. Legge has been drawing attention to the concept of rhetoric for a long time (e.g. Gowler and Legge, 1981 , 1996 [originally 1983]; Legge, 1989 , 1995a ). However, despite its popularity as an epithet, the process of rhetoric remains largely unexplored. Locating rhetoric within a poststructuralist view of language, this paper utilizes and explores the contribution of 'The New Rhetoric' to such an understanding, focusing on issues of style and context. This is used to illustrate a characterization of rhetoric which emphasizes its quality as a closed system with an important role in maintaining the status quo of 'managerialism'. Highlighting the key concept within 'The New Rhetoric' of audience , we suggest that to achieve change it is necessary to intervene in the closed cycle of the relationship between producers and consumers of management knowledge.     

Demand under product differentiation: an empirical analysis of the US wine market*

Oversupply has led to a number of perplexities for the Australian wine industry in recent times. When disaggregated from the industry level, however, the problem can be better described as a range of attribute‐specific disequilibria. To date, the solutions to this problem have predominantly revolved around supply‐side policies of reducing output through crop thinning or vine pulling. By contrast, this paper focuses on the demand side and argues that the disequilibria may be reduced by gaining a better understanding of the demand for Australian wine. A discrete choice model of product differentiation is used to estimate the demand for wine in Australia's second largest export market, the United States. Implications of the analysis are explored.     

To bundle or not to bundle

Comparing monopoly bundling with separate sales is relatively straightforward in an environment with a large number of goods. We show that results similar to those for the asymptotic case can be obtained in the more realistic case with a given finite number of goods, provided that the distributions of valuations are symmetric and log‐concave.     

The Incremental Predictive Information Associated with Using Theoretical New Keynesian DSGE Models vs. Simple Linear Econometric Models*

In this paper we construct output gap and inflation predictions using a variety of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) sticky price models. Predictive density accuracy tests related to the test discussed in Corradi and Swanson [Journal of Econometrics (2005a), forthcoming] as well as predictive accuracy tests due to Diebold and Mariano [Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (1995) , Vol. 13, pp. 253–263]; and West [Econometrica (1996) , Vol. 64, pp. 1067–1084] are used to compare the alternative models. A number of simple time‐series prediction models (such as autoregressive and vector autoregressive (VAR) models) are additionally used as strawman models. Given that DSGE model restrictions are routinely nested within VAR models, the addition of our strawman models allows us to indirectly assess the usefulness of imposing theoretical restrictions implied by DSGE models on unrestricted econometric models. With respect to predictive density evaluation, our results suggest that the standard sticky price model discussed in Calvo [Journal of Monetary Economics (1983), Vol. XII, pp. 383–398] is not outperformed by the same model augmented either with information or indexation, when used to predict the output gap. On the other hand, there are clear gains to using the more recent models when predicting inflation. Results based on mean square forecast error analysis are less clear‐cut, although the standard sticky price model fares best at our longest forecast horizon of 3 years, it performs relatively poorly at shorter horizons. When the strawman time‐series models are added to the picture, we find that the DSGE models still fare very well, often outperforming our forecast competitions, suggesting that theoretical macroeconomic restrictions yield useful additional information for forming macroeconomic forecasts.