Evolution,complex systems and technological change 1

A particularly weak area of mainstream economics is its theoretical capacity to handle structural economic change. And yet the advent of major new technologies, combined with the growing integration of the international economic system, has placed structural change high on the policy agenda. This paper suggests an alternative theoretical approach. By portraying economic systems as complex open systems it is possible to view their long-term evolution in a more realistic way. However, in order to do this it is also necessary to borrow from other disciplines such as biology, physics and computer science where research of a similar genre has been carried out. The paper explores what this means for our understanding of many of the underlying concepts associated with technological change and ends with a programmatic plea to broaden the disciplinary bounds of economics.     

Marketing in retailing: a research agenda

Although specific retailing subjects related to marketing have been extensively

researched and presented in academic literature, the overall topic of marketing in

retailing has received little attention. This paper identifies and discusses some

principal marketing in retailing issues that warrant empirical assessment.

Research attention to the questions raised in this paper will provide strategic

Guidelines to retailers seeking to improve the marketing performance of their

organizations.     

PRODUCT LINE RIVALRY

We analyse how product line rivalry by multi‐product oligopolists is affected by market size and product substitutability. We show that the width and degree of overlap in competing product lines is determined by the tension between two effects: the drive to ‘be where the demand is’ and the desire to weaken competition and intra‐firm product cannibalization. Product lines are shown to be wider and more overlapped in large markets and when product substitutability is weak. Our analysis suggests that firms can increase their profits by agreeing not to overlap their product lines.     

Hedging under model misspecification: All risk factors are equal,but some are more equal than others …

It is often difficult to distinguish among different option pricing models that consider stochastic volatility and/or jumps based on a cross‐section of European option prices. This can result in model misspecification. We analyze the hedging error induced by model misspecification and show that it can be economically significant in the cases of a delta hedge, a minimum‐variance hedge, and a delta‐vega hedge. Furthermore, we explain the surprisingly good performance of a simple ad‐hoc Black‐Scholes hedge. We compare realized hedging errors (an incorrect hedge model is applied) and anticipated hedging errors (the hedge model is the true one) and find that there are substantial differences between the two distributions, particularly depending on whether stochastic volatility is included in the hedge model. Therefore, hedging errors can be useful for identifying model misspecification. Furthermore, model risk has severe implications for risk measurement and can lead to a significant misestimation, specifically underestimation, of the risk to which a hedged position is exposed. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

Discovering wildlife tourism: a whale shark tourism case study

This paper investigates the different sources of information used by tourists to learn about a particular wildlife tourism activity, specifically, whale shark tourism at Ningaloo Marine Park in Western Australia. The findings from this research concur with previous studies of wildlife tourism showing that wildlife tourism operations are reliant on more informal and general forms of promotion, in particular word of mouth and guide books. Conversely, more deliberate marketing mechanisms, such as the internet and documentaries, are not extensively utilised. To disaggregate consumer preferences for various information sources, this article segments the population into more homogenous groups, thereby demonstrating distinct differences in the choice of information source based on the participants’ normal place of residence.     

Tariff reduction via inflation : U. S. specific tariffs 1972–1979

Zusammenfassung Zollabbau mittels Inflation: Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten 1972–1979. -Die spezifischen Z?lle der Vereinigten Staaten — und zwar sowohl die reinen spezifischen Z?lle als auch deren Anteil in zusammengesetzten Z?llen -wurden zwischen 1972 und 1979 nominal festgesetzt. Das bedeutet, da\ die amerikanische Inflation die reale Protektion, die in diesen spezifischen Z?llen zum Ausdruck kommt, in dieser Zeit reduzierte und dadurch die überm?\ige Belastung, die mit diesen Tarifen verbunden ist, herabsetzte. Dieser Aufsatz liefert Sch?tzwerte (1) für die Verringerung der überm?\igen Belastung durch diese Tarife und (2) für die von der Inflation verursachte Verminderung der generellen USZollprotektion. Nach den Sch?tzungen der Autoren verringerte die Inflation zwischen 1972 und 1979 die durchschnittlichen Zolls?tze für Meistbegünstigungsimporte um 11,9 vH. In den Verhandlungen der Kennedy-Runde wurden die Z?lle sch?tzungsweise um 35 vH herabgesetzt, w?hrend der Zollabbau der Tokio-Runde bei 33 vH lag. Die inflationsinduzierte Zollsenkung ist im Vergleich zu diesen formalen Zollsenkungen betr?chtlich. Trotz des günstigen Vergleichs scheinen die Wohlfahrtsgewinne, die sich aus dem inflationsbedingten Abbau ergeben, verh?ltnism?\ig klein zu sein.

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Résumé La réduction de tarif via l’inflation: Les tarifs spécifiques des E.U. 1972–1979. -Des tarifs spécifiques des E.U., purement spécifiques aussi bien que le rapport spécifique des droits composés, ont été fixés en terme nominal entre {dy1972} et 1979. L’inflation des E.U. entre 1972 et 1979 avait réduit le niveau de la protection, qui est implicite dans ces tarifs spécifiques, et diminué ainsi le charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs. L’article contient des estimations (1) de la réduction du charge d’excès associé avec ces tarifs et (2) de la réduction induite par l’inflation en protection générale des E.U. Les auteurs estiment que l’inflation entre 1972 et 1979 a causé une réduction de 11.9 pourcent du taux tarifaire moyen imposé sur les importations NPF. Les négociations de la ?Kennedy Round? ont réduit, d’après cette estimation, les tarifs de 35 pourcent, pendant que la réduction à la fin de la ?Tokyo Round? se chiffrait à 33 pourcent. La réduction induite par l’inflation se tient favorablement avec les résultats de ces réductions officielles. Malgré cette comparaison favorable les gains de bien-être qui résultaient de ces réductions induites par l’inflation semblent relativement petits.

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Resumen Reducción de axanceles por medio de inflación: Aranceles específicos en los EEUU entre {dy1972} y 1979. -Los aranceles específicos de los EEUU, tanto aquellos puramente específicos como también la porción específica de los aranceles combinados, han permanecido fijos en términos nominales entre 1972 y 1979. Por ello, la inflación que hubo en los EEUU entre 1972 y 1979 redujo el nivel real de protección implicite en los aranceles específicos. En este trabajo se presentan estimaciones (1) de la reducción de la protección asociada con estos aranceles y (2) de la reducción de la protección total del sistema general de aranceles de los EEUU inducida por la inflación. Segün los resultados de los autores la inflación logró disminuir el arancel medio sobre importaciones MFN en un 11,9 por ciento entre {dy1972} y 1979. Las negociaciones en la Kennedy Round habrían reducido la protección en un 35 por ciento, mientras que las de la Tokio Round habrian logrado una reducción del 33 por ciento. La reducción de la protección inducida por la inflación puede compararse ventajosamente con la que ocurrió en estas negociaciones. Sin embargo, los beneficios relativos derivados de la reductión inducida por la inflación resultan marginales.