International transmission of monthly changes in equity values

Our purpose is to answer two questions pertinent to the international transmission of changes in equity values. First, do lead-lag relationships documented in short-horizon (daily) studies continue to hold in longer time (monthly) horizons? Second, does the lead-lag structure remain stable over time? The questions are answered by examining monthly equity returns for nine countries during the 1980s. We find evidence that is somewhat surprising—significant lead-lag relationships among some countries persist in monthly horizons, particularly during the first half of the 1980s. During the second half, the lead-lag relationships are substantially weaker. During the same period, we find that contemporaneous correlations across countries have largely increased, implying greater influence of worldwide factors in determining equity prices.     

The effect of physician advice on alcohol consumption: count regression with an endogenous treatment effect

Although there are encouraging trends, alcohol abuse continues to be a significant public health problem. Econometric studies of alcohol demand have yielded a great deal of information for alcohol abuse prevention policy. These studies suggest that higher alcohol taxes and stricter drunk‐driving policies can reduce heavy drinking and drunk driving. In this paper we explore the role physician advice plays in the campaign to prevent alcohol‐related problems. Compared to alcohol taxation, physician advice is a more precisely targeted intervention that does not impose extra costs on responsible drinkers. Compared to the resource costs of arresting, processing, and punishing drunk drivers, physician advice may be a lower‐cost intervention. To provide a basis for alcohol policy analysis, we use an alcohol demand framework to test whether physician‐provided information about the adverse consequences of alcohol abuse shifts demand to more moderate levels. There are three aspects of our alcohol demand model that complicate the estimation: (1) the dependent variable is non‐negative (it is a count variable—number of drinks consumed); (2) a non‐trivial number of sample observations have zero values for the dependent variable; and (3) because the data we use is non‐experimental, the treatment variable indicating receipt of advice from a physician may be endogenous. We implement an estimation method that is specifically designed to deal with these three complicating factors. Our results show that advice has a substantial and significant impact on alcohol consumption by males with hypertension, and that failing to account for the endogeneity of advice masks this result. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

Goodness-of-fit tests for parametric nonhomogeneous Markov processes

Tests for parametric nonhomogeneous and homogeneous Markov processes are given. Asymptotic distribution of test statistics is investigated. Tests for various well-known models are discussed as examples.     

Exploring supply management status,internal collaboration and operating performance

An important internal link in the supply chain is between supply managers and their internal customers. These individuals must collaborate to determine purchase specifications, develop sourcing strategies, ensure supplier performance, and maintain effective supplier relationships. Using power and social networking as the theoretical lenses, we develop and test a conceptual model examining the supply management function’s status, supply manager’s networking behavior, collaboration with the internal customer, and operating performance (lower cost, better quality, faster delivery, and consistent delivery). We also examine the mediating effect of collaboration and networking behavior on the positive effect of status and operating performance. Data gathered in an online survey of supply management professionals are examined using path analysis. Results show that without including the mediators, supply management status is directly related to all four operating performance measures. It is also positively related to collaboration with the internal customer and networking behavior. Contrary to expectations, the supply manager’s networking behavior is not related to collaboration with the internal customer. Collaboration is positively related to all four operating performance measures. However, the supply manager’s networking behavior is only related to one operating performance measure, better quality. Mediation analysis shows that supply management status has a direct effect on faster delivery performance beyond what is explained by collaboration and the supply manager’s networking behavior. The findings suggest that organizations should look for ways to elevate the status of the supply management function to improve internal collaboration and operating performance.