The determinants of sovereign credit spread changes in the Euro-zone

Using a database of Euro-denominated government bonds covering the period from January 2000 to December 2010, this paper provides an empirical analysis of the determinants of government credit spreads in the Euro-area. The analysis is divided into two sub-periods delimited by the global financial crisis that started in August 2007. We find evidence of a clear shift in the behavior of market participants from a convergence-trade expectation, based on market related factors, before August 2007, to one mainly driven by macroeconomic country-specific variables and an international common risk factor. There is no evidence of a significant role for the liquidity risk before or during the financial crisis period. Overall, our results give support to the Merton-type structural credit risk models and confirm that there are considerable similarities between the factors explaining the dynamics of the credit risk spreads and the factors driving the prices on the government bond markets.     

The <Emphasis Type="Italic">featuring</Emphasis> phenomenon in music: how combining artists of different genres increases a song’s popularity

The appearance of songs including featured artists on Billboard’s Hot 100 music charts has increased exponentially in the past two decades. This particular type of creative collaboration involves one artist integrating another artist’s contribution, either instrumentally or vocally, into their work and publicizing it with a “featuring” credit. According to broad literature in sociology on categorical boundaries, artists who deviate from existing genres are expected to be penalized for violating collective expectations and norms. We find songs featuring other artists actually have a greater likelihood of making it into the top 10 than songs not featuring other artists. Additionally, consistent with theorizing about congruency in the co-branding literature, we observe that the greater the difference (cultural distance) between the genres of the artists involved, the more likely the song is to reach the top of the charts. We argue that by combining the expertise of specialists in each genre, as well as comingling audiences while still maintaining each collaborator’s original positioning, artists who feature artists from other genres are able to produce more successful songs.     

Pecking Order Theory versus Trade-Off Theory: are service SMEs�� capital structure decisions different?

This paper seeks to analyse if the capital structure decisions of service small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are different from those of other types of firm. To do so, we consider four research samples: (i) 610 service SMEs; (ii) 126 service large firms; (iii) 679 manufacturing and construction SMEs; and (iv) 132 manufacturing and construction large firms. Using the two-step estimation method, the empirical evidence obtained in this study shows that the capital structure decisions of service SMEs are different from those of other types of firm. Service SMEs’ capital structure decisions are closer to the assumptions of Pecking Order Theory and further removed from those of Trade-Off Theory compared with the case of other types of firm.     

Multifactor and analytical valuation of treasury bond futures with an embedded quality option

A closed‐form pricing solution is proposed for the quality option embedded in Treasury bond futures contracts, under a multifactor and D. Heath, R. Jarrow, and A. Morton (1992) Gaussian framework. Such an analytical solution can be obtained through a conditioning approximation, in the sense of M. Curran (1994) and L. Rogers and Z. Shi (1995), or via a rank 1 approximation, following A. Brace and M. Musiela (1994). Monte Carlo simulations show that both approximations are extremely accurate and easy to calculate. Application of the proposed pricing model to the EUREX market from January 2000 through May 2004, yields an excellent fit and an insignificant estimate of the quality option magnitude. On average, this delivery option accounts for only of the futures prices. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 27:275–303, 2007     

On the Epidemiological Microfoundations of Sticky Information*

We estimate and compare two models in which households periodically update their expectations. The first model assumes that households update their expectations towards survey measures. In the second model, households update their expectations towards rational expectations (RE). While the literature has used these specifications indistinguishably, we argue that there are important differences. The two models imply different updating probabilities, and the data seem to prefer the second one. We then analyse the properties of both models in terms of mean expectations, median expectations, and a measure of disagreement among households. The model with periodical updates towards RE also seems to fit the data better along these dimensions.     

Performance comparison of alternative stochastic volatility models and its determinants in energy futures: COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine conflict features

This paper studies the volatility dynamics of futures contracts on crude oil, natural gas, and gasoline. An appropriate Bayesian model comparison exercise between seven stochastic volatility (SV) models is estimated using daily prices for our futures contracts between 2005 and 2023. Moreover, to assess the impacts of COVID-19 and the Russia–Ukraine conflict on volatility, we analyze these two subsamples. Overall, we find that: (i) the Bayes factor shows that the SV model with $t$-distributed innovations outperforms the competing models; (ii) crude oil contracts with different expiry dates may require the introduction of leverage effects; (iii) the $$-distributed innovations remain the appropriate model for the COVID-19 subsample, while jumps are needed in the conflict period; and (iv) other Bayesian criteria more appropriate to short-term predictive ability—such as the conditional and the observed-date deviance information criterion—suggest other rank order to model our futures contracts, despite the agreements for the best models.     

Influence of Information on the Acceptance and Purchase Intention of an Irradiated Food: A Study With Brazilian Consumers

This study investigated the effect of information on the acceptability and purchase intention of an irradiated watercress salad and its non-irradiated counterpart among Brazilian consumers (N = 236). Both the irradiated and the non-irradiated products were fairly accepted (ratings about 6.0–7.0 in the hedonic scale). Significant effects (p ≤ 0.05) of gender, education, and age were also observed: acceptance and purchase intention was lower among male participants who received both information and an identified irradiated product, and higher among female participants who received only information about the process. Adults (30–39 years old) were more critical, and the higher the educational level, the lower the acceptability and purchase intention ratings. Brazil is one of the major irradiators in the world, but there is still a lack of consumer studies focusing the acceptability of irradiated foods. So the findings presented herein would favor Brazilian producers and regulators to develop effective communication strategies and to promote the irradiation technology.     

News and sovereign default risk in small open economies

This paper builds a unified model of sovereign debt, default risk, and news shocks. News shocks improve the quantitative performance of the sovereign default model in a number of empirically-relevant dimensions. First, with news shocks, not all defaults occur during downturns. Second, the news shocks help account for key differences between developing and more developed economies: as the precision of news improves, the model predicts lower variability of consumption, less countercyclical trade balance and interest rate spreads, as well as a higher level of debt in line with more developed economies. Third, the model captures the hump-shaped relationship between default rates and the precision of news obtained from the data. Finally, the news shocks have a nonmonotonic effect on welfare.