On `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers

An influential literature argues that trade promotes knowledge flows and technology transmission between trading partners. This literature focuses on `direct' research and development (R&D) spillovers which are related to the levels of R&D produced by the trading partners. In this paper, we argue that `indirect' trade-related R&D spillovers also take place between countries, even if they do not trade with each other. These `indirect' spillovers are associated with available rather than with produced levels of R&D. Our empirical results suggest that these `indirect' trade-related spillovers are at least as important as the `direct' ones, and strengthen the view that trade does matter for the international transmission of R&D. They also suggest that, due to the existence of these `indirect' effects, bilateral trade patterns are relatively less important determinants of the level of foreign R&D spillovers acquired through trade.     

AFDC and births to unwed women

Most studies by economists have been inconclusive when seeking a consistent relationship between income-support programs [like aid to families with dependent children (AFDC)] and births to unwed women (or, as the literature traditionally terms it, illegitimacy). But a recent study [Southern Econ. J. 62 (1995) 44] reports a large, positive and statistically significant relationship when data are weighted to reflect differences in propensities toward illegitimacy. We find that the 1995 study appears to rely upon erroneous data and irregular econometric technique. When these are remedied, the major results are reversed. We then suggest that a switching regimes methodology, with parameters influenced by other variables, is more appropriate to the issue. Our empirical results confirm the literature's consensus that AFDC and illegitimacy do not appear to be strongly related.     

Grasping the potential of online social networks for foresight

Online Social Networks (OSNs) have gained unprecedented popularity in recent years. OSNs facilitate the interaction among members by providing a dynamic/multimodal platform which enables discussions, sharing of multimedia content, organisation of events, etc. These networks comprise millions of members from all continents and from all age groups — although the younger generation is more prominent. OSN dynamics and inherent patterns of operation are being investigated by academia as a means of studying, for instance, ICT-enhanced social change. Industry uses them to detect new commercial trends and establish marketing strategies.We believe that the huge size of OSNs, the broad and versatile thematic topics and the fact that most users are youngsters made these new modalities of large-scale interaction also worth investigating in regard to the study of the future or foresight. In this paper, we discuss the relevance of OSNs for three objectives of foresight methods, namely creativity, expertise and collective intelligence.First, we argue that OSNs can be regarded as a tool to enhance creativity through the unprecedented modalities of communication and interaction they offer.Second, we propose OSNs as an expert tool to detect emerging changes in social behaviour. We assume that the recorded exchanges of information and thoughts between participants in forums offers an under-exploited source of information for detecting new social trends. The value of this information may be amplified by evaluating it in conjunction with other OSN data, such as member profiles, behavioural patterns or list of contacts or friends. In this way, emerging social trends could be detected. Similar approaches are already used in market research and could be transferred to foresight.Third, we consider OSNs to be a means of aligning individual thinking and fostering collective or “collaborative” intelligence for a whole range of possible goals in the future.For each of these three objectives, the theoretical foundations are complemented with some case studies. Given the novelty of the OSN phenomenon and its unexplored potential in many fields, the authors aim to trigger thinking and discussion on the potential application of this emerging phenomenon within foresight, rather than to offer a vademecum on the use of OSNs for foresight activities.     

Table of Contents Volume 29 2002

Volume Contents

Table of Contents Volume 29 2002     

Modeling voter choice to predict the final outcome of two-stage elections

Most election forecasting research to date has been conducted in the context of single-round elections. However, more than 40 countries in the world employ a two-stage process, where actual voting data are available between the first and the second rounds to help politicians understand their position in relation to each other and to voter preferences and to help them predict the final outcome of the election. In this study we take advantage of the theoretical foundation on voter behavior from the political science literature and the recent methodological advances in choice modeling to develop a Nested Logit Factor Model of voter choice which we use to predict the final outcome of two stage elections and gain insights about the underlying political landscape. We apply the proposed model to data from the first stage and predict the final outcome of two stage elections based on the inferences made from the first stage results. We demonstrate how our proposed model can help politicians understand their competitive position immediately after the first round of actual voting and test its predictive accuracy in the run-off election across 11 different state governorship elections.     

Is the Patent System an Even Playing Field? The Effect of Patent Attorney Firms

The patent system underpins the business model of some of the fastest-growing companies. Used appropriately, it should support frontier technologies and nurture new firms. Used perniciously, it can stifle innovation and protect established technological behemoths. We analyze patent examination decisions at the American, European, Japanese, Korean, and Chinese patent offices and find evidence that patent attorneys have a surprisingly significant role in the patent system. Our results suggest that some forces within the examination system maintain the uneven playing field by allocating monopoly rights to inventors with better access to influential attorneys, rather than leveling it by favoring inventors with better, nonobvious ideas. Attorney quality is most important, vis-à-vis invention quality, in less codified and more rapidly changing technology areas such as software and ICT.